2018 LeeForThree/Gatorchatter Bracketology

LeeForThree

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I think UF's seed is not easy to guess this year and maybe all seeds will be more problematic because of the new win quadrants. So how about a little data here.

I looked up via the brackmatrix site:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

and their accuracy scoring each year what ESPN (presumably Lundari), CBS (presumably Palm), the bracket martix each predicted for UF's eventual seed compared to UF's actual seed.

Here is what I found:

2017: UF was a 4 seed, ESPN projected UF a 4, CBS projected UF a 5 and the Bracket matrix average was a 4.

2014: UF was the overall number 1 seed with a 25ish game winning streak so all three had UF a 1 seed.

2013: UF was a 3 seed, ESPN said 4, CBS said 3 and the Bracket Matrix average was a 3.

2012: UF was a 7 seed, ESPN predicted 5, CBS predicted 7 and the Bracket Matrix average was 6.

2011: UF was a 2 seed, ESPN and CBS projected UF a 3 seed, while the Bracket Matrix average was a 2.

2010: UF was a 10 seed, ESPN had UF out of field, CBS had UF as a 11 seed and the Bracket Matrix average had UF a 12 seed.

2007: UF of course returned all five starters from the previous tourney championship team and was the number 1 overall seed and you might think this would be just like 2014, but no ESPN and CBS had UF as a 2 seed while the bracket matrix average had UF as a 1 seed.

2006: UF was a 3 seed, ESPN, CBS and the Bracket Matrix average all said 4.

So the bracket matrix was dead on 75% of the time, CBS was dead on 62.5% of the time and ESPN was dead on 37.5% of the time. On average the bracket matrix had UF a quarter seed to low, CBS had UF .375 seed too low or a bit more than a 3rd of a seed too low and ESPN had UF three quarters of a seed too low if I call the year they missed UF in the field at all giving UF a 14th seed.
In general though CBS predicts Florida 2 seeds worse than they are. Could change in final guesses, but majority of the year we could be undefeated and #1 overall and CBS will have us a 3 seed. They suck imo lol

Overall it changes year to year cause the committee changes their criteria it seems lol
 

LeeForThree

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I think UF's seed is not easy to guess this year and maybe all seeds will be more problematic because of the new win quadrants. So how about a little data here.

I looked up via the brackmatrix site:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

and their accuracy scoring each year what ESPN (presumably Lundari), CBS (presumably Palm), the bracket martix each predicted for UF's eventual seed compared to UF's actual seed.

Here is what I found:

2017: UF was a 4 seed, ESPN projected UF a 4, CBS projected UF a 5 and the Bracket matrix average was a 4.

2014: UF was the overall number 1 seed with a 25ish game winning streak so all three had UF a 1 seed.

2013: UF was a 3 seed, ESPN said 4, CBS said 3 and the Bracket Matrix average was a 3.

2012: UF was a 7 seed, ESPN predicted 5, CBS predicted 7 and the Bracket Matrix average was 6.

2011: UF was a 2 seed, ESPN and CBS projected UF a 3 seed, while the Bracket Matrix average was a 2.

2010: UF was a 10 seed, ESPN had UF out of field, CBS had UF as a 11 seed and the Bracket Matrix average had UF a 12 seed.

2007: UF of course returned all five starters from the previous tourney championship team and was the number 1 overall seed and you might think this would be just like 2014, but no ESPN and CBS had UF as a 2 seed while the bracket matrix average had UF as a 1 seed.

2006: UF was a 3 seed, ESPN, CBS and the Bracket Matrix average all said 4.

So the bracket matrix was dead on 75% of the time, CBS was dead on 62.5% of the time and ESPN was dead on 37.5% of the time. On average the bracket matrix had UF a quarter seed to low, CBS had UF .375 seed too low or a bit more than a 3rd of a seed too low and ESPN had UF three quarters of a seed too low if I call the year they missed UF in the field at all giving UF a 14th seed.
Also I beat both ESPN and CBS last year based on the score bracket matrix uses....going for 2 in a row lol
 

InstiGATOR1

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In general though CBS predicts Florida 2 seeds worse than they are. Could change in final guesses, but majority of the year we could be undefeated and #1 overall and CBS will have us a 3 seed. They suck imo lol

Overall it changes year to year cause the committee changes their criteria it seems lol

Certainly this issue of only looking at the final bracket means CBS or ESPN can use the ones before the final one to hype up teams or games they will be airing.

BTW, I collected the data on CBS and ESPN and not you, as my guess is they make up the two brackets the most people follow.
 

LeeForThree

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Certainly this issue of only looking at the final bracket means CBS or ESPN can use the ones before the final one to hype up teams or games they will be airing.

BTW, I collected the data on CBS and ESPN and not you, as my guess is they make up the two brackets the most people follow.
Definitely. I only did a complete one last year. I'm hoping I keep doing better than them lol. Using the new system, the selection committee has created a bunch what the heck is going to happen resumes
 

Ancient Reptile

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Lee deserves a pat on his back.
 

Jbossgator8

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Who is the favorite to win the Tourney? UVA looks like it with their D unless a team has a hot shooting night vs them
 

LeeForThree

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Who is the favorite to win the Tourney? UVA looks like it with their D unless a team has a hot shooting night vs them
UVA always scares me. They can beat everyone if they score enough but i think good offensive teams can take them out...maybe early
 

MertzJay26

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UVA always scares me. They can beat everyone if they score enough but i think good offensive teams can take them out...maybe early

I’d be willing to be some serious money (Ox bucks) that UVA doesn’t even sniff the Final Four. They’re not good on offense, and defense will only carry you so far in the tourney.

I hope they are the 1 seed in our bracket.
 

LeeForThree

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I’d be willing to be some serious money (Ox bucks) that UVA doesn’t even sniff the Final Four. They’re not good on offense, and defense will only carry you so far in the tourney.

I hope they are the 1 seed in our bracket.
I'm not so sure I'd be willing to say the last part lol...we suck vs great D teams imo
 

MertzJay26

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I'm not so sure I'd be willing to say the last part lol...we suck vs great D teams imo

I don’t disagree but I’d much rather play a team with poor offense and great defense than a great offense and poor defense.

Even if we are off with our shooting, we are still likely to be in the game vs a UVA type team
 

LeeForThree

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I don’t disagree but I’d much rather play a team with poor offense and great defense than a great offense and poor defense.

Even if we are off with our shooting, we are still likely to be in the game vs a UVA type team
True
 

rogdochar

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Thanks for giving us a sign, Lee.

Agreed. I have us as the best 5 so a win vs UK may plant us as a 4 imo regardless of the tourneys...unless something crazy happens. I think our quad 1 wins will be taken more it account and bump us up than our losses bring us down

This, calls for halt all our honkinking that Lee dumps on our (his) Gator team. IMO, sum us give Lee a technical 'cause he gets so fired up at coaching these Gators that he crowds the court too much.?? IMO, Lee's sorta got "don't-do-it-like-that" Tourette's.

No way we are higher than a 6 seed.
No way Nevada is lower than a 6 seed.

The question is how seedy are you, NV? :grin:
 

InstiGATOR1

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I’d be willing to be some serious money (Ox bucks) that UVA doesn’t even sniff the Final Four. They’re not good on offense, and defense will only carry you so far in the tourney.

I hope they are the 1 seed in our bracket.

I am with Jay26 here. UVa does not play good enough offense to win the tourney.

As I suggested when Leefor3 put them in UF's bracket, I am sure their fans would be greatly disquieted by that. UF has absolutely killed them in the last two times UF has met them in the tourney. Of course UF has been the higher seed the last two times, so they have that to console themselves with.
 

Captain Sasquatch

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Who is the favorite to win the Tourney? UVA looks like it with their D unless a team has a hot shooting night vs them
I'll have a more set in stone list after conference tourneys, but as of right now, the list is Duke, Michigan St., or Purdue. Maybe Nova. UVA isn't good enough on offense and it's going to bite them in the ass at least once in six games if they make it that far. Nova's defensive numbers scare me, but man can they put up some points.
 

Gator Fever

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I think we would be a 6 seed if we beat KY but didn't win any SEC Tourney games. I think those bad home losses will drop us down a spot.
 
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LeeForThree

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I'll have a more set in stone list after conference tourneys, but as of right now, the list is Duke, Michigan St., or Purdue. Maybe Nova. UVA isn't good enough on offense and it's going to bite them in the ass at least once in six games if they make it that far. Nova's defensive numbers scare me, but man can they put up some points.
I don't think Duke or MSU will win it. Both decent but do have major flaws
 

LeeForThree

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Who is the favorite to win the Tourney? UVA looks like it with their D unless a team has a hot shooting night vs them
I'd say anyone in the TOP 7-9 seeds can win it all. Top 4 seeds have a better shot due to playing easier teams but no one is close a favorite imo this year. So much equality among teams
 

InstiGATOR1

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I am with Jay26 here. UVa does not play good enough offense to win the tourney.

As I suggested when Leefor3 put them in UF's bracket, I am sure their fans would be greatly disquieted by that. UF has absolutely killed them in the last two times UF has met them in the tourney. Of course UF has been the higher seed the last two times, so they have that to console themselves with.


BTW, I meant to add here that it is UVa and UCLA fans who feel most snake bitten by UF in the tourney. For someone of my age to see UCLA fans dreading seeing UF in their bracket is nothing short of miraculous.
 

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