Is Mullen really 2-15 all time vs ranked teams?

T REX

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he's not shown the ability to consistently out coach teams that have more talent. But when I see his record, I still see someone who can win.

This is why you have people all over his recruiting. The stats show he's not going to upset very many teams. So he'll need massive amounts of bluechippers. If he's not getting the kids then he's doomed. So, let's all hope he starts convincing kids to come here.
 

Sec14Gator

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I'm not debating any of the data or opinions on the matter, as they may both tell us exactly what we should expect. I'll reserve all judgement until I see the product on the field.
...

So any time he pulled a win against any of the above mentioned teams [UF, Aub, LSU, uga, ut] as rare as it was, he was pulling an upset.

I’m in Sofla’s Camp, i.e. still holding out hope that we really don’t know exactly what he will look like as the head coach at Florida.

As to the record, it is alarming but SoFla is also right about the roster talent issues. We may learn more from record vs the spread (which implicitly accounts for expectations for programs, adjusted for specific players (Dak) and circumstances (home/away/night, etc)). On this point, according to teamrankings.com, since 2009, MSU is 53.4% versus the spread (3rd in SEC behind Bama and Cocks). UF over that time is 46.4% (11th in the SEC). In conference games MSU was 55.6% ATS (4th in SEC behind Barn, Bama and Ark), UF 46.6 (10th in SEC). As a favorite, MSU has the best record vs the spread since Mullen has been there. He’s right in the middle of the pack as an underdog vs the spread.

Or, it could help to look at his record versus expectation based upon various power indexes (though they also incorporate underperformance of a team too and could falsely place him as an underdog, but it still is a decent proxy for coaching versus expectation). I’m not sure there is as easy a way to do this though.

As others note, however, if recruiting doesn’t end up in a MUCH different place than it’s currently heading, we’re fcuked regardless of how we dissect his prior coaching record.
 

lagator

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I'm not debating any of the data or opinions on the matter, as they may both tell us exactly what we should expect. I'll reserve all judgement until I see the product on the field. But I still think the performance against ranked/non-ranked teams tells only part of the story. The simple fact is that whether or not teams like Aub, Lsu, Ala, ut, uga or UF had a ranking next to them in years they played, those teams almost across the board had considerably more talent. Imo, that should be considered.

Take his win against us in 2010. We were obviously a bad team that year, just as Lsu was last year, Aub in '14, etc. But he still lined up mostly 2 and 3* players against mostly 4 and 5* players and won. In the games against unranked opponents, he no doubt had a sizable talent advantage and typically won, with a few concerning exceptions. So any time he pulled a win against any of the above mentioned teams, as rare as it was, he was pulling an upset.

That leads me to believe that if he can amass talent here and at least be on level footing with all of our opponents, he can win. So to me, that's the biggest concern right now, and the one that has to be fixed. Because he's not shown the ability to consistently out coach teams that have more talent. But when I see his record, I still see someone who can win.

I appreciate the optimism (borderline pumping even) but can't say I fully agree. That is the theory, that the reason his record sucks is because he was at MSU so what could you expect? But it's simply that, a theory. And it got him 7 million a year despite having a losing record in conference and a god-awful record vs ranked opponents no matter how you slice it.

Reality is he recruited poorly and couldn't get above 500 in conference with 9 yrs of data.

So far here he is still recruiting poorly. We haven't seen what he can due on the field. We probably have equal or better talent than most of the teams on our schedule, so if you are correct that he's a winner who was held back by having only 2-3 stars then he should win a minimum of 10 games this year.

Other than UGA and maybe FSU who on the schedule has superior talent? It definitely can't be MSU because you just told us they are all 2-3 stars who couldn't beat anyone other than 6 wins in 9 years, all over teams that have since fired their head coach (other than AU) even when they had Mullenz superior scheme.
 

soflagator

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I think the Taggert hire is going to be a disaster for FSU. The dude has had very little success in his career. Obviously, with the 2-15 records against ranked teams. Is Dan that much better? Who knows. I personally think he is better, although I do think Mullen has a ceiling. At least we're in a better position than them to some degree now.

The difference, sadly, is that the noles were in much better shape to take a risk. If WT is what many of us think he is, then they can go out and try again in a few years, likely with a solid roster of players due to his recruiting.

We're 0-2 in recent coaching searches and are sitting on a decade of absolute embarrassment. If Mullen fails on either front, and we're back shopping in 2022, it will be beyond disaster and we're possibly looking at 20 years of irrelevance. Just the thought of that is almost as unfathomable as it is scary.
 

biggator6

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When Mullen got hired.. I was definitely in the 'unimpressed' camp. I'm perfectly willing (and hoping) to admit that I'm wrong if proven so.

However. I posted a lot of these stats as reasons why I wasn't thrilled. I was met with 'well, that was MSU.. imagine what he'll do with Florida talent!'.

We. Shall. See.
 

TheDouglas78

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The difference, sadly, is that the noles were in much better shape to take a risk. If WT is what many of us think he is, then they can go out and try again in a few years, likely with a solid roster of players due to his recruiting.

We're 0-2 in recent coaching searches and are sitting on a decade of absolute embarrassment. If Mullen fails on either front, and we're back shopping in 2022, it will be beyond disaster and we're possibly looking at 20 years of irrelevance. Just the thought of that is almost as unfathomable as it is scary.

Could be shopping as early as 2020.... depending on results, but that would be a solid decade of futility.
 

MJMGator

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When Mullen got hired.. I was definitely in the 'unimpressed' camp. I'm perfectly willing (and hoping) to admit that I'm wrong if proven so.

However. I posted a lot of these stats as reasons why I wasn't thrilled. I was met with 'well, that was MSU.. imagine what he'll do with Florida talent!'.

We. Shall. See.
Problem is, he’s not landing any “Florida talent”. :sadnanner:
 

T REX

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Could be shopping as early as 2020.... depending on results, but that would be a solid decade of futility.

You caught that too, huh? I just didn't want to sound negative but 2022 is 5 years. Not sure he makes it that long unless he hires some mega-recruiters on staff.
 

Swamp Donkey

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He wont last five years if he isnt pulling top5 to top 10 at worst classes.
 

soflagator

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I appreciate the optimism (borderline pumping even) but can't say I fully agree. That is the theory, that the reason his record sucks is because he was at MSU so what could you expect? But it's simply that, a theory. And it got him 7 million a year despite having a losing record in conference and a god-awful record vs ranked opponents no matter how you slice it.

Reality is he recruited poorly and couldn't get above 500 in conference with 9 yrs of data.

So far here he is still recruiting poorly. We haven't seen what he can due on the field. We probably have equal or better talent than most of the teams on our schedule, so if you are correct that he's a winner who was held back by having only 2-3 stars then he should win a minimum of 10 games this year.

Other than UGA and maybe FSU who on the schedule has superior talent? It definitely can't be MSU because you just told us they are all 2-3 stars who couldn't beat anyone other than 6 wins in 9 years, all over teams that have since fired their head coach (other than AU) even when they had Mullenz superior scheme.

I've stated repeatedly that a loss in Starkville would be a major black eye for DM. I'm not ready to demand 10 wins, though I do think it should be achievable, for the very reasons listed above. But I could see a slip-up somewhere along the way, similar to Usce in Meyer's first year, in addition to 2 more "expected" losses.

Other than that, I'm in agreement. I've said before, the price tag is ridiculous given the resume. And his recruiting needs to show some serious signs of improvement or none of the data will matter. I just place more value on what he was working with in relation to others, rather than ranking.
 

soflagator

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Could be shopping as early as 2020.... depending on results, but that would be a solid decade of futility.

You caught that too, huh? I just didn't want to sound negative but 2022 is 5 years. Not sure he makes it that long unless he hires some mega-recruiters on staff.

Numbers mistake on my part. I think he likely gets 4 years, not 5.

The point remains, if he's not our next great HC, we're in for a world of trouble that spans at least a portion of two decades.
 

GatorJB

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I'm not debating any of the data or opinions on the matter, as they may both tell us exactly what we should expect. I'll reserve all judgement until I see the product on the field. But I still think the performance against ranked/non-ranked teams tells only part of the story. The simple fact is that whether or not teams like Aub, Lsu, Ala, ut, uga or UF had a ranking next to them in years they played, those teams almost across the board had considerably more talent. Imo, that should be considered.

Take his win against us in 2010. We were obviously a bad team that year, just as Lsu was last year, Aub in '14, etc. But he still lined up mostly 2 and 3* players against mostly 4 and 5* players and won. In the games against unranked opponents, he no doubt had a sizable talent advantage and typically won, with a few concerning exceptions. So any time he pulled a win against any of the above mentioned teams, as rare as it was, he was pulling an upset.

That leads me to believe that if he can amass talent here and at least be on level footing with all of our opponents, he can win. So to me, that's the biggest concern right now, and the one that has to be fixed. Because he's not shown the ability to consistently out coach teams that have more talent. But when I see his record, I still see someone who can win.

I agree with what you are saying, but we currently don't have a big talent advantage on our schedule. There are 6 teams on our current schedule that have comparable or better talent. And as of right now it doesn't look like that will change in the near future. If recruiting doesn't pick up, then I think his history at MSU will give us a good idea of what to expect from him.

I will admit though that at least 5 of the 6 coaches on teams with better or comparable talent are either unknowns or known losers. So that should help Mullen's record out some for the next couple of years.
 

soflagator

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I agree with what you are saying, but we currently don't have a big talent advantage on our schedule. There are 6 teams on our current schedule that have comparable or better talent. And as of right now it doesn't look like that will change in the near future. If recruiting doesn't pick up, then I think his history at MSU will give us a good idea of what to expect from him.

I will admit though that at least 5 of the 6 coaches on teams with better or comparable talent are either unknowns or known losers. So that should help Mullen's record out some for the next couple of years.

No I agree. The only way we succeed going forward is by rectifying that. If he can't land top-5 talent, then no, we're not going anywhere north of 8-9 wins, and he's likely gone. But by comparison, how many teams had comparable or better talent when he was at Msu? My whole premise is predicated on him a) being able to beat teams if he has comparable/better horses, and b) him being able to land said horses.

At this point, neither are certain. I'm just hopeful that I'm not terribly off base.
 

Mr.Breeze

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It's a tough stat to swallow any way you look at it. But, as you point out, I bet 9 of those were to an Alabama team that was top 5-7 at the time. So even if he takes Msu to an 8-4 type season and is ranked, say 24th, it's still a very likely loss as he's just completely outmatched.

By the same token, he typically got Lsu and Aub early in the year, so who knows how some of those teams finished their season(last year for example). I personally think all of these stats should be based off of end of regular season rankings, which could benefit him, or make it worse. Either way, it would be more accurate.

I've posted before how many NC winners or runners up he faced, and it's pretty startling. The games that concern me much more are the evenly matched--or close to it--games like OM last season. I just don't think you can lose games like that, especially with a fill-in head coach on the other sideline.

True - and Spurrier never should have allowed the Semis to score 4 unanswered TDs in the 4th quarter to squander a 28 point lead and create such an epic collapse that you can find it on Wikipedia.

And Urban Meyer shouldn’t have lost at home to Ole Miss with a national championship team to blow our best chance ever at an undefeated season.

It happens, even to the very best of them.
 

MJMGator

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True - and Spurrier never should have allowed the Semis to score 4 unanswered TDs in the 4th quarter to squander a 28 point lead and create such an epic collapse that you can find it on Wikipedia.

And Urban Meyer shouldn’t have lost at home to Ole Miss with a national championship team to blow our best chance ever at an undefeated season.

It happens, even to the very best of them.
You get a pass on those when you bring home trophies.
 

Swamp Donkey

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I've stated repeatedly that a loss in Starkville would be a major black eye for DM..
I wont be surprised.

Muhsippi is it depressing shtthole and every team seems to struggle when they enter that cloud.

I wouldnt care at all if he were recruiting well.
 

Sec14Gator

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So you’re saying we’re going to play the role of spoiler more than we’ll be a contender? :dunno:
The against the spread numbers show otherwise than being a spoiler (but not that we’ll be contenders unless we get talent). As a favorite (or more talented/home in most cases) Mullen has the best record ATS in the SEC since 2009 when he went to MSU. It’s by a big margin both percentage wise and average number of points over the spread line (3.6). So he wins big when he should win.

But, as an underdog, Mullen at MSU was only 48% ATS, 8th in the SEC. So he loses about the amount you’d expect ATS and by a bit more points than average.
 

Omar's Coming Yo!

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On another note:
MULLEN wins while @ MSU

*Seven were against teams that finished with 8 total wins:

8-5 Florida (2010)
8-5 Ole Miss (2013)
8-5 Auburn (2014)
8-5 LSU (2014)
8-5 Texas A&M (2014)
8-5 Arkansas (2015)
8-5 Texas A&M (2016)

*Two were against teams that finished with 9 total wins:

9-4 Ole Miss (2009)
9-4 LSU (2017)


So in all, Mullen's 33 SEC wins came against opponent that were a combined 186-227 (45.0%). Only TWO of his 33 SEC wins (6%) came against opponents that finished better than 8-5. 9 total win they won 8+.
 

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