100 Pick 'Em games: Leader has only picked 64%

oxrageous · Sep 30, 2018

So how tough is this? Over 150 people have played, and the leader is alone by himself picking only 64% of the games. Some of the leaders took a major dump this week and dropped back while others made major strides. Do not give up!

Whoever wins this thing will have really earned it.

Discuss.

Gatorraid81 · Sep 30, 2018

I'm happy i've made it to the first page now in the standings, after starting on like page 7 in the first week.

chopper · Sep 30, 2018

I suspect that might be a pretty good percentage . CBS has 7 "Experts" picking against the spread and their best picker is 56%.

Captain Sasquatch · Sep 30, 2018

My last two weeks have been god awful but I’m still only 5 points behind the leader.

Pablos Tunnel · Sep 30, 2018

I’m curious to know, and too lazy to do the math, how have the odds makers done? I mean if you just picked the favorites in every game what are the numbers?

AugustaGator · Sep 30, 2018

oxrageous said:
So how tough is this? Over 150 people have played, and the leader is alone by himself picking only 64% of the games. Some of the leaders took a major dump this week and dropped back while others made major strides. Do not give up!

Whoever wins this thing will have really earned it.

Discuss.

It’s no fun to not take chances!

I voted against FSU this week and lost again!

Needless to say I stunk it up this week.

Captain Sasquatch · Sep 30, 2018

Pablos Tunnel said:
I’m curious to know, and too lazy to do the math, how have the odds makers done? I mean if you just picked the favorites in every game what are the numbers?

It would be tough to figure out that since some of the lines in this Pick 'Em have been made up by Ox since they were games without an official line from Vegas (lots of the SEC vs. FCS games don't have lines). He's also only put up the opening line, so many of the lines shown here were not the lines at game time. There have also been a couple cases when the line was just straight up wrong, like the USC/Texas or Nebraska/Michigan games.

But if you want to figure out what your record would be if you had picked the favorite in each game, you can just scroll through each week's results and count.

Captain Sasquatch · Sep 30, 2018

AugustaGator said:
It’s no fun to not take chances!

I voted against FSU this week and lost again!

Needless to say I stunk it up this week.

If you picked Louisville, you got the pick right. They beat the spread by 0.5 points.

Slevin · Sep 30, 2018

I didn’t pick this week when I realized ox stack the cards against me. He hid the first week pickems from me and I just couldn’t recover

TLB · Sep 30, 2018

What I'm hearing from Ox is that, collectively, we suck at picking games. I blame past coaches. And Foley.

Mr2Bits · Sep 30, 2018

AugustaGator said:
It’s no fun to not take chances!

I voted against FSU this week and lost again!

Needless to say I stunk it up this week.

How....they didn't cover the spread which would mean you picked FSU?

AugustaGator · Sep 30, 2018

Captain Sasquatch said:
If you picked Louisville, you got the pick right. They beat the spread by 0.5 points.

Well damn I won that one then. I was thinking it was 3. GA let me down. Same with tigers

AugustaGator · Sep 30, 2018

Mr2Bits said:
How....they didn't cover the spread which would mean you picked FSU?

I had the spread wrong. :spank:

BMF · Sep 30, 2018

At sports books it's called "gambling". If it was called "winning" everyone would be doing it.....

Alumni Guy · Sep 30, 2018

oxrageous said:
So how tough is this? Over 150 people have played, and the leader is alone by himself picking only 64% of the games. Some of the leaders took a major dump this week and dropped back while others made major strides. Do not give up!

Whoever wins this thing will have really earned it.

Discuss.

There’s a good documentary on Netflix (maybe amazon prime) following professional betters in Vegas during Super Bowl week. They said, only the very best sharps can cosisteny pick 60% of the winners.

It’s about doing research to find that perfect game/line and hitting it. Since we can’t pick our games or place points according to confidence, the high score is about where it should be.

There’s a reason the casinos are nice and big in Vegas.

GatorInGeorgia · Sep 30, 2018

Only 64%??? 64% ATS is very good, especially on 20 games per week. For perspective, if you went to Vegas and did that you’d make serious bank. Every $10,000 wagered ($100 per game on 100 games) would net you $2,440. 53% puts you slightly in the black. My guess is that winning around 11 to 12 games average per week will be more than enough to win this.

GatorInGeorgia · Sep 30, 2018

Alumni Guy said:
There’s a good documentary on Netflix (maybe amazon prime) following professional betters in Vegas during Super Bowl week. They said, only the very best sharps can cosisteny pick 60% of the winners.

It’s about doing research to find that perfect game/line and hitting it. Since we can’t pick our games or place points according to confidence, the high score is about where it should be.

There’s a reason the casinos are nice and big in Vegas.

I didn’t see the documentary but you’re correct on the 60% comment. You’re rolling in money if you can do 60% or better. My experience with betting is that the oddsmakers are dead on accurate setting the lines (within a few points) on call it 85% or so of the games, within a scoring play of changing the winner on another 5-7% of the games and they miss by a wide margin on 8-10% of the games. It’s those 8-10% where you can make some hay without having to bet every game on the board. Heck, even on the games where they are way off the mark, they don’t really care b/c all they want to do is have even money bet on each side so they collect their 10%. That’s really all the line is meant to do...balance the book.

T REX · Sep 30, 2018

Only? 64% is great.

oxrageous · Sep 30, 2018

Sigh. I was trying to give people perspective who knew nothing about gambling and certainly knew nothing about the spread. For a lot of people, this is the first time picking against the spread in their lives. I was just trying to show how difficult it was.

64% is obviously good, since it's at the top of 150+ entries.

Lake Gator · Sep 30, 2018

oxrageous said:
So how tough is this? Over 150 people have played, and the leader is alone by himself picking only 64% of the games. Some of the leaders took a major dump this week and dropped back while others made major strides. Do not give up!

Whoever wins this thing will have really earned it.

Discuss.

64 percent is near miraculous if the spreads are truly bookie/Vegas lines. Heck, I've only played two weeks, done zero research, and picked 52 percent winners by selecting visitors in week 4 and home teams in week 5.

My oldest brother was a multimillionaire businessman and gambled successfully on the NFL for decades as his favorite hobby. He kept notebooks of won/loss statistics against the spread long before the advent of computers. If he could have picked correctly 64% of the time, gambling would not have been his hobby...it'd been his career.

He didn't read books much but he did read a book called The NFL Lottery. It was his bible.

100 Pick 'Em games: Leader has only picked 64%

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