2017 Defense may not fall off too far (247)

BMF

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Good article, w/ number of starts of returning players.

We need depth at DT & LB and the secondary needs some bodies but hopefully it won't be a horror show like the 2007 defense.

http://florida.247sports.com/Bolt/H...170108_154049_Florida Gators&utm_content=Link

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- On Saturday, GatorBait.net took a look at two key question marks for the Florida defense, pointing out that the squad will lose 184 collective starts from this year's departing seniors and early entry NFL Draft juniors.

Today, we look at exactly what that means in terms of the experience returning.

We compare to two other years when Florida lost a ton of talent to the NFL Draft: 2007 and 2011. First, here's a look at what Florida has returning next year in terms of career starts.


Florida's Returning Defensive Starts, 2017
11 - Jordan Sherit
10 - Nick Washington
10 - CeCe Jefferson
9 - Marcell Harris
8 - Duke Dawson
6 - Kylan Johnson
5 - Keivonnis Davis
4 - Khairi Clark
4 - David Reese
3 - Chauncey Gardner
3 - Taven Bryan
3 - Jabari Zuniga
1 - Chris Williamson
1 - Vosean Joseph

How does that stack up? Well, that's 14 players with at least one career start, which is actually a great deal of starting experience. However, the clear issue for Florida is that there aren't many true multi-year starters.

You'll see as we outline the 2007 and 2010 classes exactly how that fits in.

First off, it's not nearly as dire as 2007 was, when Florida lost seven NFL Draft picks off the defense. The following year the Gators returned just four players who had ever started a game, with a collective 32 starts between them.

Florida's Returning Defensive Starts, 2007
11 - Kyle Jackson
15 - Tony Joiner
5 - Derrick Harvey
1 - Brandon Spikes

Now, how does what's returning next fall stack up to another year that Florida lost a bunch of NFL talent but still had some quality returning? In 2010, Florida had lost Joe Haden, Carlos Dunlap, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham and Major Wright to the draft.

But the Gators still returned a ton of experience. That unit saw a considerable dropoff in play, even so, giving up about 60 yards and nine points per game more.

The 2010 defense returned a bevy of experience, with what we'd describe as five multi-year starters (15+ starts). Overall, the 2010 defense returned 13 players with starting experience, for a combined 164 career starts.

Florida's Returning Defensive Starts, 2010
29 - A.J. Jones
26 - Ahmad Black
25 - Janoris Jenkins
20 - Terron Sanders
18 - Justin Trattou
13 - Lawrence Marsh
11 - Omar Hunter
9 - Brandon Hicks
5 - Will Hill
4 - Jaye Howard
2 - Brandon Antwine
1 - Duke Lemmens
1 - William Green

So what do we think it means for the Florida defense in terms of experience? Well, it almost certainly won't be as green a unit as it was in 2007. That defense had virtually no experience but a massive amount of young talent in terms of first- and second-year players.

Still, that defense finished ranked 41st nationally in total defense and 46th nationally in scoring defense.

The 2017 squad also doesn't return nearly as much experience as the 2010 defense, which finished ninth in total defense and 29th in scoring defense.

So you can probably expect somewhere in the middle of those two years in terms of production. Florida won't be able to rely on its defense to keep it in every single game, but you probably already knew that heading into the offseason.

What has to happen is the offense stepping up enough to make up for some dropoff next fall. Because there will be some. It just likely won't be nearly as dire as it seems when you hear Florida's losing eight starters and 184 career starts.
 

T REX

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It's not the starts but the STARS. It is the incoming talent. There's a drop off in talent and experience. That's a fluff piece.
 

Concrete Helmet

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What scares me most is not the actual players we have coming back but the way it will force us to line up....It's almost a given we have to go 4-3 with the personnel we have coming back. Not a problem if you have stellar DB's at all 4 positions.....we lost 2 of the best CB's in the country in case nobody noticed....We're going to give up a ton of yards next year....no way around it. Then when the big boys line up they're going pound that smallish line into oblivion before having a field day over the top. I hate to say it but I've seen this play out before.
 

Gator Fever

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It's not the starts but the STARS. It is the incoming talent. There's a drop off in talent and experience. That's a fluff piece.

Yep and many of those starts were just forced early due to all the injuries. Its good they got some experience but it may not be a good comparison. That young 2007 defense was frustrating as hell with all the 3rd and 4th downs they gave up but you knew it was going to improve a bunch the next season.

We lost 4 games including the Bowl game in 07 even with that real good offense.
 

Swamp Donkey

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Yep, stars more than starts. Very few of our players next year would even get a scholarship offer back then.

That being said, I fully expect Shannon to get much more out of the talent than Mr. Soft Zone Sidehat, so the dropoff may not be as significant as the talent deficit would suggest.
 
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ergator920103

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We lose our two best DT's, a DE with a very good pedigree, our best 2 LB'ers and 3/4 DB's.... not sure how the D can be as good or better next season? Unless Shannon is a MAJOR improvement over Collins - which is very possible.
 

alcoholica

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I'm not the least bit worried about the secondary next year if we stay healthy. I think we get Henderson, Stewart, and another 4* DB. CB is one of the easier positions for Freshmen to play. I do think Dawson will be given the opportunity to play CB. Not sure if Gardner will stay in the Nickel or if we'll have enough S talent to let him play CB. If Taylor and Lenton can provide depth at S, I think Gardner and Dawson can be a real solid set of CB's. A couple freshmen can back up.

I'm very worried about DT and depth at LB.

I don't see us cracking the top 20 with this defense, but they shouldn't be a huge liability if the offense can do their job....awww phuck, nevermind...we're screwed.
 

InstiGATOR1

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More important than the "stars" is the positions. So I broke this down by position and the 14 players include:

DL: 6 players (including 2 that are 290 or bigger)
LB: 3 players
DB: 5 players

That is a nice distribution by positions. If a few old players develop and a few new players can contribute early, then it appears to me UF can again have a decent amount of depth on defense.
 

TN G8tr

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I think we'll fall off statistically but we should have a pretty darn good D next year. Not to mention think we'll have improved in a great way with Shannon calling the plays rather than Side Hat. I am more worried about the grind and injuries than anything else.
 

Concrete Helmet

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Good thing we're going to be a offensive juggernaut next year to offset defensive fall off.
Huge concern in my eyes. If the offense struggles to find players/plays to move the sticks consistently our defense will take too many reps in the first part of the season. If injuries force us deeper into the depth chart then whatever "returning starts' we have go out the window.....Learning on the job in the meat of the SEC schedule is a recipe for disaster no matter how good the coaching is.....Our offense will never be able to keep us in games when the defense is giving up massive chunks of yardage....Sucks to be in this position but it is what it is and the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of Mac/Nuss for not giving us an offense which can protect the defense with neither points or TOP.....
 

Swamp Donkey

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And yet, the fact that on defense under sidehat we conceded yardage between the twenties meant the offense often git a very long field. That is a tough assignment for any offense that isnt being run by SOS.
 

Slevin

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We will be better coached than we were with side hat. That will help offset a little bit of the experience. Not saying a lot, but it'll help with the early stages some.
 

Alagator

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And yet, the fact that on defense under sidehat we conceded yardage between the twenties meant the offense often git a very long field. That is a tough assignment for any offense that isnt being run by SOS.
Yup... A long field for SOS was just an opportunity to run a few more ball plays... And if it was in the 3rd quarter, it likely meant some good reps for the backups because we were already up by 30...
 

MidwestChomp

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I think we'll be OK at safety and starting LB. Now, if our starting linebackers get hurt we might be screwed. DL and corner concern me.
 

Concrete Helmet

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Yup... A long field for SOS was just an opportunity to run a few more ball plays... And if it was in the 3rd quarter, it likely meant some good reps for the backups because we were already up by 30...
We'll never see that with the 2 guys in charge of our offense now....6-10 point leads even against the directional schools we play well into the 3rd quarter means no gameday development for guys further down the depth chart and more reps from the ones can lead to unwanted injuries or aggravating bumps and bruises at the very least....Since the day Muschamp took over this has been the pattern and our teams have been gassed by late October every year....That's another reason we seem to fade when the big boys show up....
 

alcoholica

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Yup... A long field for SOS was just an opportunity to run a few more ball plays... And if it was in the 3rd quarter, it likely meant some good reps for the backups because we were already up by 30...
How many times under Spurrier would we be deep in the red zone and get a penalty. No one was upset, it just opened up more passing plays because of the space opening up
 

maheo30

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I don't appreciate all that sunshine being blown up my a$$. If I wanted an enema I'd go to the doctor.
 

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