2018 LeeForThree/Gatorchatter Bracketology

Discussion in 'Main Sports Forum' started by LeeForThree, Mar 1, 2018.

  1. InstiGATOR1

    InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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  2. Jbossgator8

    Jbossgator8 Senior Member
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    Looks like 12 of our 19 wins could be against possible tourney teams...
     
  3. t-gator

    t-gator too sexy for my shirt

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    Solid list . I'd also throw in zona
     
  4. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    Jerry Palm only has us an 8 seed this morning. I think he is definitely off with that despite some bad losses at home. Heck even if we lost to KY today and didn't have a good SEC tourney we are probably around an 8 seed. Beat KY today and we are probably a lock for at least a 6 seed even if we don't win an SEC tourney game.
     
  5. MidwestChomp

    MidwestChomp Fun was the goal and we hit the bullseye
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    I want nothing to do with a 5 spot. I hate that seed. I would rather be a 6 or 7.
     
  6. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    Me too - I would rather have a 6 seed just because of the bracketing later.
     
    • LeeForThree

      LeeForThree Let It Fly

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      I think that is where we will ultimately be imo....unless we somehow keep winning
       
      • MidwestChomp

        MidwestChomp Fun was the goal and we hit the bullseye
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        I guess that wouldn't be a terrible thing especially if we win the conference tournament.
         
      • InstiGATOR1

        InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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        UF will enter the NCAA tourney with either 11 or if UF does not win the SEC tourney 12 losses. So I went back the last 5 tourneys to see what the top seed with 11 and 12 losses were:

        2017: 11 losses a 7 seed, 12 losses a 10 seed
        2016: 11 losses a 4 seed, 12 losses a 6 seed
        2015: 11 losses a 4 seed, 12 losses a 9 seed
        2014: 11 losses a 6 seed, 12 losses a 9 seed
        2013: 11 losses a 5 seed, 12 losses a 7 seed

        I suspect that if enters the NCAA tourney with 12 losses UF will be the highest seed with 12 losses in at least the last 5 seasons.
         
      • Gator Fever

        Gator Fever Senior Member

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        I guess Palm at CBS really doesn't like us. He now has us only a 7 seed and KY a 5 seed after that game. I have a feeling all the others will have us a 5 or 6 seed right now.
         
      • Captain Sasquatch

        Captain Sasquatch Mr. SQ, the Sashole
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        If we can manage to beat Arkansas and Tennessee on the way to the championship game, that’ll push us up to a 5. Not sure if winning it would get us up to a 4, maybe if we beat Auburn to do it.
         
      • InstiGATOR1

        InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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        Four and five are essentially the same. The only differences are playing a 12 v. a 13 in your first game and the 4 is the lowest "protected" seed. Sure a 12 might beat you, heck a 12 might beat this team at home and the same can be said for a 13. As far as getting a favorable pod for the first two games, the sites this year are Nashville, Charlotte, Boise, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Wichita, San Diego and Dallas. So I do not see any pod site that really aids UF.
         
      • Captain Sasquatch

        Captain Sasquatch Mr. SQ, the Sashole
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        Charlotte has a strong Gator base, that would be about it. And I’d much rather play a 13 than an 11 or 12, especially one that’s coming off a play-in game.
         
      • InstiGATOR1

        InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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        With this bunch I would much rather see an opponent that they feel threatens them or even better one who has already beaten them. With a typical team you are right the worse opponent the better, but these guys need an opponent that gets their attention. Heck a rematch with Loyola-Chicago would not be the worst first round opponent for this team. I do agree I never prefer a team coming off of winning a play in game.
         
      • LeeForThree

        LeeForThree Let It Fly

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        1 Seed
        Virginia
        Villanova
        Xavier
        Kansas

        2 Seed
        Michigan St
        Purdue
        Duke
        Auburn

        3 Seed
        Cincinnati
        Clemson
        North Carolina
        Tennessee

        4 Seed
        Arizona
        Gonzaga
        Florida
        Texas Tech

        5 Seed
        Kentucky
        Michigan
        Wichita St
        Ohio St

        6 Seed
        Nevada
        Miami
        West Virginia
        Seton Hall

        7 Seed
        TCU
        Virginia Tech
        Texas A&M
        Arkansas

        8 Seed
        NC St
        Florida St
        Rhode Island
        Arizona St

        9 Seed
        Creighton
        Missouri
        Oklahoma
        Houston

        10 Seed
        St. Mary's
        Oklahoma St
        Mississippi St
        Butler

        11 Seed
        Texas
        Providence
        Kansas St
        Loyola Chicago
        St. Bonaventure

        12 Seed
        Middle Tennessee St
        Baylor
        Alabama
        USC
        Syracuse

        Here is my update. Doing the bracket takes a while so I will don't closer to the real reveal
         
        • InstiGATOR1

          InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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          Let's look at one more thing here. Here are the quadrant 1 and quadrant 1 + 2 records of the top 20 seeds according to Palm:

          1. 8-3, 15-3
          1. 6-3, 15-4
          1. 9-1, 13-2
          1. 10-3, 18-6

          2. 6-4, 13-6
          2. 6-3, 12-5
          2. 4-4, 12-4
          2. 3-4, 9--4

          3. 6-6, 12-7
          3. 6-6, 12-8
          3. 7-6, 12-6
          3. 10-7, 13-8

          4. 4-2, 14-4
          4. 4-8, 11-8
          4. 7-7, 13-8
          4. 3-3, 11-6

          5. 6-5, 10-6
          5. 4-2, 6-4
          5. 3-6, 9-8
          5. 3-9, 12-10

          UF by the way is 10-4, 13-10. Only on the 1 line are teams +6 in quadrant 1 wins. You start getting around +3 in quadrant 1 + quadrant 2 wins around the 4 seed range. Only one team on the 1 line has played as many quadrant 1 + quadrant 2 games. It will be really interesting to see where the committee puts UF.
           
        • LeeForThree

          LeeForThree Let It Fly

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          That's why I feel we are a 4 at the moment
           
        • InstiGATOR1

          InstiGATOR1 Well-Known Member
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          Another way to look at it is:

          1. RPI of 39 at the moment puts UF at a 10 seed.
          2. Quadrant 1 wins puts UF at a 1 seed.
          3. Quadrant 1 + Quadrant 2 wins puts UF in the 2 to 4 seed range.
          4. UF has a winning record at home, on the road and at neutral sites.
          5. Kenpom has UF at 21 in the country.

          If you just look at the 4 quantitative points above and give UF a 3 to average point 3, then you get 10+1+3+6 = 19 and you can divide 20 by 4 and get UF as a 5 seed.

          The irony of all of this is that as soon as the bracket is announced, I will look at UF's pod and not consider anything else in the bracket.
           
        • LeeForThree

          LeeForThree Let It Fly

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          Go to ESPN now. FGCU was down 32 in the 2nd half. Now down 10. Winner goes dancing
           
        • LeeForThree

          LeeForThree Let It Fly

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          Was down to 6 lol
           

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