Recruiting 2019 Recruiting Thread: Mock Class added

Discussion in 'Main Sports Forum' started by BMF, Jan 22, 2018.

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CHAMPIONSHIP: If you were forced to have dinner with one of these members, who would you choose?

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  1. Renard904

    Renard904 Well-Known Member

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    I get it. I just don't understand how anyone could watch that team last year and say that they would beat anyone. Let alone LSU. But hey, if that's the narrative we're going with, so be it. I'm just struggling to think of any coach that would come in here and squeeze more out of this team than what Mullen currently is. Also, your recruiting ranking is, in no way, indicative of your actual talent level. Prime example: FSU. They stink ass! Based on their rankings they should be competing with Bama.
     
    • leogator

      leogator Well-Known Member

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      If your ranking is based on big time busts like Jefferson and Clayton then you will have problems on the field. Does FSU have as many busts or is it just us? What about Auburn?
       
      #7902 leogator, Nov 7, 2018
      Last edited: Nov 7, 2018
    • ltraz

      ltraz Well-Known Member

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      Just tell me if you think we were well coached last year? If not, do you not think that better coaching should immediately result in more wins?
      Oh dear...recruiting ranking has been shown to correlate to team success and the NFL draft over and over again. It seems like once again, you're conveniently ignoring the coaching factor. Are you saying that taggert is doing an ok job coaching, but he just doesn't have the talent.
       
    • Sec14Gator

      Sec14Gator Well-Known Member
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      Over/Under on how many pages back we'd have to go to see the last 2019 recruiting commit. I'd take over 45 and under 75.
       
      • Renard904

        Renard904 Well-Known Member

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        Ok
         
      • Slevin

        Slevin Shyt Talker Extraordinaire
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        Bad news is that we’ve got another 45 pages to go probably. Good news is early signing is next month so we will see a few pop and then decommits and wavering kids from mid December to feb
         
      • BMF

        BMF Bad Mother....
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        Looks like one of our future commits will be playing in the UA All-American Game:

         
        • BMF

          BMF Bad Mother....
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          It's not a "narrative". A competent coaching staff would have won at least 3 more games last year (and played in a bowl game).
           
          • Swamp Donkey

            Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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            That reminds me of people saying Chimp was doing a great job because he almost doubled the win total from 2013 to 2014.
             
          • BMF

            BMF Bad Mother....
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            I'm borrowing this from another board. Good info on class rankings and championships:

            BLUF: if you can average top 8 classes, 60% blue-chip (11/12 4-stars & 2 5-stars per class) you have a good shot at competing for a championship. Even better, if you can add a dynamic QB your chances greatly improve (Clemson's natty team (w/ Watson) average ranking was 12.75 & Auburn's (w/ Newton) was 14.75).

            =====

            So I decided to dive back into my numbers for recruiting rankings and what is needed to win a championship. I used the composite rankings and went all the way back to Texas’ 2005 national championship. I chose this starting point because the data is pretty unreliable on recruiting classes up until about 2002, the composite rankings go back to 1999, but the data is all over the place.

            What I did was take the four classes that signed with the school that won the national championship prior to them winning. For example for Texas’ 2005 championship I took the data from their 2002-2005 classes. So here is what I go after redoing the numbers.

            If you just compile all of the classes together for all of the teams you get an average class ranking of 7 (6.69). In those classes teams signed on average of 24 (24.31) recruits. Of those recruits signed 2 (2.45) where five star recruits and 11 (11.36) were four star recruits. The average blue chip percentage of those classes was 57% (56.91%). Finally, the average rating of those classes was a 90.29.

            I then decided to look at it a different way so I took the average of each individual champion’s four classes and then averaged those out. For example if you look at Texas’ average it was 7.75. LSU’s championship in 2007 was also 7.75. Florida’s in 2006 was 5, and so forth and so on. So I took all of those averages and put them together to see what I got. The numbers actually went up a little.

            The average national ranking rose to 6. The average number of recruits signed was about the same at 24.50. the average number of five star recruits was almost the same a 2.63, but the average number of four stars rose to 12. The average blue chip percentage rose as well to 59.52%. Finally the average rating of those classes was 90.55.

            Now one could argue that those numbers are severely skewed by Alabama’s ridiculous run of classes from their 2015 and 2017 championships, so what happens if you take them out? The average ranking drops to 7 (6.91). The average number of commits drops to 24 (24.27). The number of five stars stays around 2 (2.16). The number of four stars drops to 11 (11.48). The blue chip percentage drops to 56% (56.14%). The overall average rating is 90.22.

            Now that data still includes all of Alabama’s classes from their 2011 and 2012 championships that were ranked in the top 3 (2.75) over that span so I decided to level the playing field even more and take them out as well. Who’s going to recruit as well as Alabama consistently? Georgia maybe, but that’s still to be determined. Now I left in the data from Alabama’s first championship of the Saban era for two reasons. One people love to specifically point to it as a barometer and the data was fairly average. I mean their average ranking was 7.75 for that championship team. So what did we end up with?

            The average class ranking goes to 8 (7.89). The average number of recruits is 24 (23.78). The number of five stars is still 2 (1.97). The average number of four stars is still 11 (10.58). The average blue chip percentage drops to 53% (53.14%). The average overall rating was 89.70.

            Now there are still two huge outliers in this data, the 2010 Auburn championship and the 2016 Clemson championship. The Clemson team’s average ranking was 12.75 and Auburn’s was a crazy 14.75. That’s an average of 13.75. We all know that those teams also both had transcendent QBs, that without, neither would have won, so what happens if we take out the outliers as well and look at the data. I mean if we’re going to take out the crazy top classes Alabama has averaged we might as well take out the classes that on average were 8 (7.54) places below the rest of the group.

            When you crunch those numbers you get an average ranking of 6 (6.21). The average number of commits was 23 (23.21). The number of five stars was 2 (2.29). The number of four stars was 11 (11.11). The blue chip percentage was 57% (57.34%). The overall average rating was 90.13.

            Just for fun if you look at the 2006 and 2008 championship teams UF had the average ranking was 5, the number of commits was 23 (22.75), the number of five stars was 3 (2.63), the number of four stars was 11 (11.25), the blue chip percentage was 60% (59.69%), and the average overall rating was 89.67.

            So what does all of this mean? For some it won’t mean anything, but to me the key numbers to hit are to sign the 6th to 7th ranked recruiting class. You should sign a minimum of 23 commits. Those commits should include at least 2 five stars and 11 four stars, the blue chip percentage should not be any lower than 55%. Finally, the average rating of the class should be a 90 at a minimum.

            Right now I’m looking at what it would take to sign a class like that by looking at how many recruits are ranked in that average rating year after year to give an idea on what the average recruit should be ranked that we sign.

            ====
             
            • gatorkev85

              gatorkev85 Well-Known Member
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              I'd be stoked for a top 7 class every year if it included at minimum 2 5* and 11 4* players. Sprinkle in a few classes each year that has 3-4 5* and a 5* Qb and we have a punchers chance against bama which is all you need. I'm hopeful that Mullen will turn things around in recruiting.
               
              • CGgater

                CGgater Gainesville Native

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                You have too much time on your hands, sir.
                 
                • Swamp Donkey

                  Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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                  Just a reminder in case our staff has forgotten.

                  Signing day is December 19



                  You only took 17 last year, and you "saved" 14 scholarships from last class (7 EEs counted back) for this excellent class that was coming.
                   
                  #7913 Swamp Donkey, Nov 8, 2018
                  Last edited: Nov 8, 2018
                  • t-gator

                    t-gator too sexy for my shirt

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                    Anyone else wanna dislike? Go ahead and quote that whole bmf article
                     
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                    • rogdochar

                      rogdochar Senior Member
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                      Thanks BMF for making the time to advance GCMB's CFB recruiting knowledge. Providing details that will allow us another way to track how we're doing. Whenever we get around to doing.
                       
                      • Renard904

                        Renard904 Well-Known Member

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                        What? Why do you say that so confidently? There's no way to prove it, therefore you can't be as sure as you're pretending. "Would" and "should" are two entirely different things. What I said is fact-- This team won 4 games, 2 of which we were fortunate. What you said is extremely hyperbolic and theoretical. I'm just dealing with the facts. Hell, I agree with you to some degree. We're seeing it being played out now. Mullen is winning more with pretty much the same group of players. However, that is just my opinion. It is not based off of anything factual because there's no way to truly tell if that's correct. In the scientific community that is the epitome of a hypothesis.
                         
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                        • BMF

                          BMF Bad Mother....
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                          Ok. You're right, I'm wrong. Every other coaching staff in the country would have replicated, exactly, what Butters did.

                          :scoff:
                           
                          • Renard904

                            Renard904 Well-Known Member

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                            Nice retort
                             
                            • BMF

                              BMF Bad Mother....
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                              Thanks. There's a saying about carrying on an discussion w/ people like you...
                               
                            • Renard904

                              Renard904 Well-Known Member

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                              What? You lose?
                               

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