Could Chip Kelly handle the pressure at UF?

Renard904

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Thought I agree, it's the same thing Mullen basically did... The benefit of frost is he has both played and coached both sides of the ball. But his sample size wasn't big enough, only 2 years at a mid major.
I'm not sold on Mullen's potential at UF. But when you look at it closely, Mullen and his staff would be "Saban-esque" at a lower division of football. He runs a "QB-centric" offense that doesn't require a top guy, just a guy that's sturdy and tough. And Grantham's blitz heavy, man coverage schemes would work wonders.

Where they differ is Mullen actually has SEC Head coaching experience. A lot of the guys that love to hate Mullen on this board will have you believe that he's garbage because he never beat anybody while at MSU, but that's very misleading. As I've stated before, I'm a big picture guy. We can all agree that 9 years is a big sample size for coaching, right? Well. I'd venture to say that I'm almost positive that he has one of, if not the highest winning %s in that schools' history. I'll have to check to be sure. But that tells me that he's won more than the median coach did there. Which means he surpassed REASONABLE expectations.

edit: Since the SEC's inception in 1933, there are 3 MSU coaches with a higher winning pct. Since the 50's you have just 1. And not 1 coach has a higher winning % than Dan Mullen, since 1953.
 
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TheDouglas78

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I'm not sold on Mullen's potential at UF. But when you look at it closely, Mullen and his staff would be "Saban-esque" at a lower division of football. He runs a "QB-centric" offense that doesn't require a top guy, just a guy that's sturdy and tough. And Grantham's blitz heavy, man coverage schemes would work wonders.

The system is the system, it's not my favorite system. But it's a system with the right players can be successful. Grantham is more a lower tier D coordinator. He has a known history through the SEC as being high risk, high reward. That doesn't work on the fundamentals. I don't mind a guy who is high risk, high reward if the players are fundamentally sound. His aren't.

Where they differ is Mullen actually has SEC Head coaching experience. A lot of the guys that love to hate Mullen on this board will have you believe that he's garbage because he never beat anybody while at MSU, but that's very misleading. As I've stated before, I'm a big picture guy. We can all agree that 9 years is a big sample size for coaching, right?

9 years is a solid sample size, and it both shows his strengths and weaknesses. I'm a data person, past performance the biggest indicator of future performance.

Well. I'd venture to say that I'm almost positive that he has one of, if not the highest winning %s in that schools' history. I'll have to check to be sure. But that tells me that he's won more than the median coach did there. Which means he surpassed REASONABLE expectations.


He would ranked tied for 8th all time in overall winning percentage, tied for 3rd post WW2.
He would rank 11th in conference winning percentage, 4th post WW2.
He has the largest drop from overall to conference winning percentage of any coach in MSU history (drop of 14.2%).

The difference in overall winning percentage compared to conference winning percentage tells you the quality of out of conference games he feasted on as coach. If you look at his schedules and winning percentages he is 100% vs FCS schools, 89.29% mid-majors, and 46.15% against P5 schools. 12.86% of this wins are FCS, 35.71% is against Mid-Majors, and 51.43% against P5. When you look at the data, at least 4 games were against inferior opponents (FCS or non-P5) except for the '09 season. Starting the 2016 5 opponents for inferior (non-P5 schools), that doesn't include the annual matchup against Kentucky and having Arkansas and Ole Miss on the schedule.

Another record that Mullen broke is having more FCS and none major conference universities on the schedule than any coach in their history.

If you only look at the winning percentage, it's only telling part of the story.
 

jhbyrd

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I'm not sold on Mullen's potential at UF. But when you look at it closely, Mullen and his staff would be "Saban-esque" at a lower division of football. He runs a "QB-centric" offense that doesn't require a top guy, just a guy that's sturdy and tough. And Grantham's blitz heavy, man coverage schemes would work wonders.

Where they differ is Mullen actually has SEC Head coaching experience. A lot of the guys that love to hate Mullen on this board will have you believe that he's garbage because he never beat anybody while at MSU, but that's very misleading. As I've stated before, I'm a big picture guy. We can all agree that 9 years is a big sample size for coaching, right? Well. I'd venture to say that I'm almost positive that he has one of, if not the highest winning %s in that schools' history. I'll have to check to be sure. But that tells me that he's won more than the median coach did there. Which means he surpassed REASONABLE expectations.

edit: Since the SEC's inception in 1933, there are 3 MSU coaches with a higher winning pct. Since the 50's you have just 1. And not 1 coach has a higher winning % than Dan Mullen, since 1953.

You inherit what you inherit then do the best you can. Mullen inherits a program that has done poorly since he left UF but won 2 national championships when he was there.

Give him a chance to do something and his hard work may surprise the doubters.
 

Renard904

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The difference in overall winning percentage compared to conference winning percentage tells you the quality of out of conference games he feasted on as coach. If you look at his schedules and winning percentages he is 100% vs FCS schools, 89.29% mid-majors, and 46.15% against P5 schools. 12.86% of this wins are FCS, 35.71% is against Mid-Majors, and 51.43% against P5. When you look at the data, at least 4 games were against inferior opponents (FCS or non-P5) except for the '09 season. Starting the 2016 5 opponents for inferior (non-P5 schools), that doesn't include the annual matchup against Kentucky and having Arkansas and Ole Miss on the schedule.

Another record that Mullen broke is having more FCS and none major conference universities on the schedule than any coach in their history.

If you only look at the winning percentage, it's only telling part of the story.
Your stats are impeccable. The one aspect that you seem to not account for is expectations. Sure, he didn't do too well against better competition. My rebuttal to that would be, what are your expectations?
When did MSU ever beat better competition? I've not once in my lifetime had an expectation that MSU would beat any good program. Any strong win they had was always an upset, to me. Everyone keeps telling me about him losing to Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU etc. But when was that ever expected in Starkville? It's like Vandy. I don't care who was coaching Vandy, I'd never EXPECT them to beat the upper echelon teams. So, when a coach fails there, it isn't an indictment on the coach. James Franklin has done well since leaving Vandy. Wasn't beating anybody while he was there.
 

ChiefGator

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The system is the system, it's not my favorite system. But it's a system with the right players can be successful. Grantham is more a lower tier D coordinator. He has a known history through the SEC as being high risk, high reward. That doesn't work on the fundamentals. I don't mind a guy who is high risk, high reward if the players are fundamentally sound. His aren't.



9 years is a solid sample size, and it both shows his strengths and weaknesses. I'm a data person, past performance the biggest indicator of future performance.




He would ranked tied for 8th all time in overall winning percentage, tied for 3rd post WW2.
He would rank 11th in conference winning percentage, 4th post WW2.
He has the largest drop from overall to conference winning percentage of any coach in MSU history (drop of 14.2%).

The difference in overall winning percentage compared to conference winning percentage tells you the quality of out of conference games he feasted on as coach. If you look at his schedules and winning percentages he is 100% vs FCS schools, 89.29% mid-majors, and 46.15% against P5 schools. 12.86% of this wins are FCS, 35.71% is against Mid-Majors, and 51.43% against P5. When you look at the data, at least 4 games were against inferior opponents (FCS or non-P5) except for the '09 season. Starting the 2016 5 opponents for inferior (non-P5 schools), that doesn't include the annual matchup against Kentucky and having Arkansas and Ole Miss on the schedule.

Another record that Mullen broke is having more FCS and none major conference universities on the schedule than any coach in their history.

If you only look at the winning percentage, it's only telling part of the story.

If you only look at the winning percentage, it is telling nothing. If you are correct that our defense will not be fundamentally sound that is a large concern to me, perhaps you are somewhat biased.

Have good players, use them properly, and wins result. Not the other way around. Luck runs out eventually, and of course you can't just get whatever coaches you desire.
 

TheDouglas78

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Your stats are impeccable. The one aspect that you seem to not account for is expectations. Sure, he didn't do too well against better competition. My rebuttal to that would be, what are your expectations?
When did MSU ever beat better competition? I've not once in my lifetime had an expectation that MSU would beat any good program. Any strong win they had was always an upset, to me. Everyone keeps telling me about him losing to Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU etc. But when was that ever expected in Starkville? It's like Vandy. I don't care who was coaching Vandy, I'd never EXPECT them to beat the upper echelon teams. So, when a coach fails there, it isn't an indictment on the coach. James Franklin has done well since leaving Vandy. Wasn't beating anybody while he was there.

Elite coaches would pull out some against Bama, Auburn, and LSU, but I would expect a losing record to those three schools. Ole Miss is similar to maybe a hair better than Mississippi State. Arkansas is another with traditionally similar talent. He routinely had a top 30 class (according to the Byrdman), 4 of his 9 seasons he had a top 30 Strength of Schedule (average strength of schedule rank 24.9). The question is he met expectations, which is great. But expectations are hugely different than at UF. You look at Spurrier, Meyer, etc... did they meet expectations or surpass them.

I don't know if Mullen is going to be better or not, but the evidence suggest we have a good coach, but not a great or elite coach. I hope that it isn't true.
 

TheDouglas78

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If you only look at the winning percentage, it is telling nothing. If you are correct that our defense will not be fundamentally sound that is a large concern to me, perhaps you are somewhat biased.

Have good players, use them properly, and wins result. Not the other way around. Luck runs out eventually, and of course you can't just get whatever coaches you desire.

Chief, I would say that he probably had good players vs the competition at UGA (10-13) and Louisville (14-16). There is a reason he is named 3rd and Grantham. He is a guy we have 7 years of data on as well.
 

TheDouglas78

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Link? I have not said that. I have said he has much smaller resources in little Mississippi than his SEC competition.

Ok, Byrdman... so what you are saying when you were defending Mullens earlier about his recruiting prowess and his transition class, what?

And before you blow a fuse because objectively think about anything UF, if you average out Mullens 9 classes at Mississippi State, the average is 30th ranked according to Rivals (which makes it top 30).
 
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NOLAGATOR

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Back to the OP...Chip Kelly is not at UF or any other SEC School because he could never handle the heat of the schedule or recruiting.

Vandy...Vandy...Vandy almost knocked off the Media Darling Notre Dame.
 
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TheDouglas78

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Chip Kelly was offered to be the coach in a city where he would be the immediate draw and the most important thing in town. He decided to go to UCLA where he is about 6 or 7 on the list of important sport franchises and take less money. That is all you need to know.
 

Gator Fever

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Wouldn't have fased you? Your lack of patience with Mullen certainly does not bare that out. Mullen worked quickly and efficiently on his 2018 transition class and the 2019 class is unfinished business and you certainly have been fased.

Kelly when he went to Oregon, told the AD that he hated recruiting so the AD said he would help with recruiting. The net result NCAA probation and Kelly moving to the NFL while his personal NCAA penalty timed out.

My lack of patience with Mullen is mostly due to his substandard recruiting so far.
 

jhbyrd

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Ok, Byrdman... so what you are saying when you were defending Mullens earlier about his recruiting prowess and his transition class, what?

And before you blow a fuse because objectively think about anything UF, if you average out Mullens 9 classes at Mississippi State, the average is 30th ranked according to Rivals (which makes it top 30).
You said according to byrd.

The point is you were quoting yourself or another poster not me on Mullen's Rivals recruiting class rankings.
 

jhbyrd

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My lack of patience with Mullen is mostly due to his substandard recruiting so far.
Recruiting is officially non binding until they sign. 2019 not in yet.

All Mullen officially has is 2018. In terms of prior signed UF transition classes Mullen did well compared to the past transition classes for UF especially if you include 5 star transfer Grimes and 4 star Van Jefferson.
 
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TheDouglas78

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You said according to byrd.

The point is you were quoting yourself or another poster not me on Mullen's Rivals recruiting class rankings.

And just like you, I'm not going to look it up.
 

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