Detailed article on Mullen's offense

Discussion in 'Main Sports Forum' started by williston_gator, Nov 30, 2017.

  1. emr25

    emr25 Member

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    Jimbo now at $7 million per.

    Malzahn now at $7 million per.

    Reports that Taggart is demanding $7 million per to consider leaving Oregon.

    Reports that Fuentes isn’t even entertaining offers to leave VT, smart move on his part because this time next year it might be $8 million per to get a first or second tier coach.

    Fact is the days of $4 million per coaches at Power 5 programs are numbered, the money is getting too big and the pressure to win too high, and ADs are ponying up.
     
  2. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    So at the time he was signed he was 5th, now he might be 8th... is he the 8th best coach in the NCAA. Answer the question instead of deflecting.
     
  3. emr25

    emr25 Member

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    Based on solely his W/L record at MSU, probably not 8th best. But as you are well aware, there are a lot of grey areas in how to evaluate a coach’s tenure at a program like MSU. I do think he has the ability to succeed at UF with a good staff and solid recruiting, more so than MacElwain for sure.

    I’ll say this, if UF wants to tout itself as a premier, Top 10 program in all of CFB, then it is about time we start putting together a staff (along with spending on facilities) that is compensated commensurate to Top 10 status.

    Edit: Also, I would not be surprised if a $6 million annual salary puts him outside the Top 10 for CFB head coaches before the 2018 season starts.
     
  4. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    Take McElwain out of the equation, when evaluating Mullen two different transactions. We obviously paid too much (especially year 3) for the McElwain transaction. I have no problem if Mullen was here and we saw a production on the field that is worth that dollar amount, but in 2017 we don't have that. At the end of the day a coach is evaluated by output, W/L's and championships. Zook, Muschamp, and McElwain were fired because they were not championship coaches with too many of the wrong kinds of L's.

    There is no doubt if we are willing to hire and elite coach, UF needs to compensate with elite pay. Just like our facilities need to be made elite. If Mullen proves to be elite (and I would be extremely happy if he does) then him and his staff deserve elite pay. Right now this isn't an elite hire, might become one and I like everything he has done since being hired. But on 11/21 there was nothing about this hire that was elite.
     
  5. Theologator

    Theologator Enchanter

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    Which is a better gauge of market value: the appraised value of a home or the concurrent price actually paid for it?

    I would argue the price actually paid in an arm’s-length transaction is the actual value. A bank uses an appraisal to make sure the purchase price is supported independently, so that’s a fair measure, too. But I don’t agree when people say “I bought a $300k house for $250k!” No, you just bought a $250k house because the seller would have sold it for $300k if they could have.

    Is Mullen worth $6m? Apparently so, on one hand, since that is what the market said.

    Your point is more like the appraisal, looking at other properties in similar neighborhoods etc. You don’t compare current values to historic cost. Is your neighbor’s home worth what he paid for it 15 years ago or what the market would pay today? If other hires show the market is rising quickly over the next month or two it would be fair to include them in evaluating this year’s coaching carousel.

    We won’t know if he’s worth it until we see results. In any case, I’m not currently chipping in so I can’t get too worked up about it. I might send a small contribution before year end just to support the program.
     
  6. emr25

    emr25 Member

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    Is it possible that our UAA, and Scott Stricklin particularly, has a better pulse than we do on what is and isn’t elite pay in the current market?

    All I’m saying is I don’t think $6 million should be causing any of us to blink, it is the new normal and may even be on the low end of normal for hiring a coach away from a Power 5 school (or the big name like a Frost).

    The dollars don’t matter, the results on the field do. Only time will tell and I think Mullen can do well enough to make $6 million per look inconsequential.
     
  7. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    So who should be paid more your 1st, 2nd, 3rd (reportedly) or 4th choice?

    Right now it stands 4.66/year, 5/year, 5/year and 6/year.

    Frost got a 7 year 35 Million dollar deal (reportedly) so 5/year.

    If Mullen does well (meaning NC Championships) he will have earned his money and a pay raise.
     
  8. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    Theo, as I said earlier... what ranking of NCAA Coach and we will see where there dust settles when the numbers come out.
     
  9. Theologator

    Theologator Enchanter

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    I feel better with Mullen at 6. Norvell may be the next great coach but he doesn’t have a long enough track record. We’ll see if Arky lands him or he takes another P5 job as the dominoes fall.

    (It’s not a go-to-the-mat opinion. I get your point.)
     
  10. emr25

    emr25 Member

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    If you think we were unwilling to pay Chip Kelly at least $4.66 million per or Scott Frost at least $5 million per to come be the HC at UF, then I guess we no longer have anything to discuss.
     
  11. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    I personally don't know who is better, The risk is higher with Norvell, but I also believe the ceiling is higher as well. Mullen has a long enough track record to know what kind of coach he is, and what to expect.
     
  12. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    We might have been willing to pay Frost 5 that I don't know... we offered Kelly more than 4.66... but that is part of the Market Value. I think Nebraska over paid for Frost, he has two year of experience and 1 BCS bowl game.

    If Chip is worth 6 (which he is getting 49ers + UCLA) is Mullen an equal coach to Kelly?
     
  13. emr25

    emr25 Member

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    You are trying to make the comparison too binary. Coach A at School B compared to Coach Y at School Z. It’s all supply and demand in the current marketplace.

    I think $6 million is what UF needed to pay in the current marketplace for an established commodity. No coach is worth that if they can’t win, but any coach is worth much more to the net worth of the brand if they get a few SEC titles in 4-5 years. See Kirby at UGA. Their program worth is skyrocketing right now. And he’ll get a pay raise accordingly to align him with the current market.

    Edit: Just for the record, I didn’t like the Mullen hire. I’m in full wait and see mode and it starts with the 2018 recruiting class. Anything less than Top 5 is a letdown IMO.
     
  14. ThreatMatrix

    ThreatMatrix Well he's not Mac - so we got that going for us
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    Class of BSEE ‘83 myself. Don’t meet many classmates. Did you graduate in the spring with honorary Jed Clampett?
     
  15. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    The supply is 130+ coaches... demand is 130 jobs. Only a group come open every year. The market place is what it is set at what it is, similar there are only 32 head coaching jobs in the NFL.

    Kirby Smart has already accomplished something Mullen never in his second year SEC Championship. He was also paid 3.7536 Million for this season. He will get a pay raise for someone who is now got an SEC Championship in his pocket. Mullen's greatest all time achievement, being the only coach in SEC history to win their bowl game and finish with a losing record (2016).

    The hire was disappointing, when you pay a coach 5th overall at the time you expect and elite candidate who can walk right in with game changing name recognition and Mullen isn't that guy. We have a coach with a losing SEC record coming in. It's not an exciting hire. Now I want to eat crow and him to come in and tear it up. But his history doesn't show that.
     
  16. T REX

    T REX Well-Known Member
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    In defense of Mullen, this class is a transition class.
     
  17. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, Mullen seems to be doing what he can.. and hopefully it's fruitful, but there is no telling what kind of clean up he is having to do on the trail.
     
  18. UFHealthGator

    UFHealthGator Member

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    You drive your point much more succinctly by capitalizing "failed". Good job. You are now just talking in circles. Mullen's value is defined by the market forces at the time of his hiring process. It is a matter of demand and supply at that time. Large number of head coaching jobs opening up, not many good coaches available. You cannot compare Mullen's salary to every other coach in college football, and determine if he gets more money, then he must have done more. Not all 124 coaches were available to UF, and more importantly, out of the ones that were available, not everyone is a good fit, or was willing to come to UF. Out of the of the coaches that were available and willing to come, Mullen's long head coach experience and SEC experience is the best, in addition to his UF history. More importantly, time was of the essence, and if we had screwed around much longer, we would have lost Mullen, and would be looking at an unknown coach to come to UF. I think that is pretty valuable. Mullen was already making 4.5 million at MSU.

    Do you know of a Spurrier / Meyer that was willing to come to UF? If so please enlighten us about that hire. Chip Kelly was not coming to UF, and his 46-7 record trumps SEC experience. Between the coaches that were actually realistic to come to UF, the Norvells and the Taggarts of the world, Mullin had a significant advantage over them with his SEC experience, both as an OC and Head coach. The argument is very much valid.

    It is your opinion of what his market value is, which this entire thread has been created for. By the very definition of the word, it is conjecture.
     
  19. TheDouglas78

    TheDouglas78 Well-Known Member

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    Again you deflect from the question at hand. So if the field is only 130 coaches, but we can't base the market on the market itself then where do we base the market. Now please answer the question out of 130 coaches in the NCAA where does Mullen rank, and at the end of the year we will see if he is paid accordingly. You keep deflecting this question.

    You are pumping with all the reasons the athletic department is putting out for the hire, which I agree with a number of them. But we aren't talking why he is a good fit, we are talking about his market value. Which you seem to be mixing the two reasons he is a good hire and his market value. Two different subjects.


    I put the years of the coaching search for both Spurrier and Meyer, but you neglected that due to your obviously emotional response. You are basing his risk/reward on his previous employment, which is accurate. It shows us that there is limited risk due to the factors you have mentioned. It also shows limited ceiling, also due to the reasons you listed. Do you pay very good, elite money, Yes or No? It's a simple question.




    Actually market value is pretty easy to assess in a small field as NCAA coaches. There are only 130 jobs, so the value you have is based on 130 positions and the qualifications of the people that hold those positions. You seem to have an issue with that. As you said it's easy supply and demand, with only a supply of 130 and more importantly 14 SEC jobs (as of yesterday 4th overall).
     
  20. Theologator

    Theologator Enchanter

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    Don’t remember Jed, but Robert Q. Marsten would often reminisce about me shaking his hand. Jed & Faye Dunaway were the famous alumni they’d always talk about (but neither graduated from UF.)

    We did graduate with Wendy Thomas, as in the burger heiress.

    You EE types are scary smart. Better remember that...
     

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