Dow Falling

Discussion in 'Politics' started by GMDGator, Feb 2, 2018.

  1. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    The plunge protection team made a nice move of like 500 points in about 15 minutes. :D
     
  2. divits

    divits A Muffin of the Studly Variety
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  3. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    There are some pretty rough charts in the market's history when you take out that around 82-99 time frame where if we just dip down to a standard P/E in the coming years Dow Jones returns haven't been that great throughout history even over extended periods. heck about the last 20 years isn't that good of a return if we dip well under 20k to a historically average P/E ratio. This Fed Fruit punch has really distorted markets since the last crash. Curious to see how quick they slow down QE unwinding etc and interest rate growth if the market keeps correcting down some.
     
  4. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    Have you lost your mind? The average annual return for the S&P 500 over the past 90 years is just shy of 10%.

    Find me another asset class that comes anywhere near to that.
     
  5. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    I am not nuts. What was it about 9,000 in April 1998 at one time about 20 years ago. If we go back to an average historical P/E ratio ahead we would be at about 18k or a nick less. Doubling over 20 years is a return less than 4% a year.

    In fact if our fed didn't off the books change their mandate to artificially trying to force money in the markets with near ZIRP policy and Trillions in QE buying treasuries the talk of good long term stock market returns would have died off years ago just like it did before the feds stepped in around 2009 to buy all the trash mortgage backed securities and our own govt debt after that.

    The feds policies have jacked up stocks at the expense of other classes.
     
    #125 Gator Fever, Feb 10, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2018
  6. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    Perhaps you'd like to go back to 1913 and undo the Federal Reserve System.
     
  7. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    Haven't studied that a bunch but have read some good arguments against the current system.
     
  8. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    Forget what it did. Go back and read about how unstable the economy was prior to the advent of a central bank.
     
  9. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    My main problem with the fed is how they operate especially in recent years to bail out the crooked bankers when they should have been allowed to fail and no the world wouldn't have ended its just some of the people that created the mess would have actually paid a huge price and not have been bailed out after taking crazy risks like that. It was a disgrace the feds bought like a trillion dollars of those garbage mortgage backed securities they were speculating in that helped crash things.

    The motto seems to be heads the bankers win and tails the rest of the people lose.
     
  10. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    That wasn't the central bank bailing people out. It was the Treasury.
     
  11. Detroitgator

    Detroitgator General Factotum
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    Who was buying the bonds? ;)
     
  12. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    The perfect Ponzi.
     
  13. Detroitgator

    Detroitgator General Factotum
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    As it was designed in 1913
     
  14. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    You suppose they were able to imagine a 1 trillion budget deficit being passed in 1913?
     
  15. Detroitgator

    Detroitgator General Factotum
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    Relatively speaking? For sure.
     
  16. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    Not quite, but I get your point. The entire budget that year was 11.7 billion. It would take 41 billion in 1913 to equal 1 trillion today.

    We rarely if ever run on a surplus.
     
  17. Detroitgator

    Detroitgator General Factotum
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    Yup, and when did our exponential growth in Federal govt begin?
     
  18. itsgr82bag8r

    itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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    Oh, I remember the double digit interest rates quite well. Bought my first home in 1984. Ouch.
     
  19. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    Something about a New Deal. Some deal.
     
  20. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    @2bag

    Volcker putting the pedal to the metal.
     

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