Frustration with Gator Bait/ Recruiting three star players

ThreatMatrix

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You need a couple of 5 stars in every class just so you can hang out with the cool kids.
 

ThreatMatrix

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Just to reiterate and 2222 can and will back this up...our top ten class this year would have been 13th last year and 14th the year before. Let that sink in for a sec. The 2291 points would have been another ho hum class but the top three schools pulled in a record haul for them creating a HUGE/WIDE gap between the have's and haven nots. Artificially putting us in the top ten.

It was posted on another site but with much better details and graphs.

66238928.jpg
 

stephenPE

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I used to get the hard copy of Gatorbait in the mail years ago. The "preview" for the upcoming game would arrive in my mailbox, usually about 4 days after the game had been played. Back then you could actually call the douchebag who ran it and complain, which I did. He always blamed it on the mail, and actually suggested I call the postal service. I finally gave up and canceled my subscription when I got a copy in the mail that had emblazoned on the cover "Vanderbilt Preview!!" several days after our blow-out victory over the Commodores. The articles were almost always poorly-written nothingness about stuff you already knew or couldn't care less about anyway. It's nice to see that content-wise they're still trying to gin up excitement about that which no one anywhere is interested in.
I used to pick them up free in by the Sonny's on Waldo Road in the 80s. Loved that stuff.
 

Swamp Donkey

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Try quoting this part, too, if you want the full picture. But, in reality, for every Tebow, there's a Brantley. Hopefully, more Tebows. It's an inexact science.
Brantley wasnt a five star but your point is correct, the numbers are about 50/50 on five stars who go on to be elite. However the are about one in three or four for four stars and 1 out of 50 for 3 stars, and maybe 1 in 10,000 for 2 stars.
 

ThreatMatrix

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I'm not sure what you don't understand?
Your reasoning. You can't take the point totals for one team in one year and put it in another year to come up with a ranking. You'd have to take the point totals for all teams and then you just end up with the ranking of the current year.

2291 would have been 6th in 2012 :dunno:
 

T REX

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Your reasoning. You can't take the point totals for one team in one year and put it in another year to come up with a ranking. You'd have to take the point totals for all teams and then you just end up with the ranking of the current year.

2291 would have been 6th in 2012 :dunno:
Yeah I need to plagiarize the whole post. It shows in great detail how the class stacks up in a historical context. I'll see if i can find it. The person uses the 247 composite and I think it's worse than what I posted. 2222 and I pm'ed about it. He totally agreed. The top teams sucked up most of the top talent. Normally there's better talent distribution. I'll try and find it and feel free to try to debunk it.
 

T REX

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And I am pretty sure Rivals changed their point system about 3 years ago but not sure on the exact year.
 

ThreatMatrix

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Yeah I need to plagiarize the whole post. It shows in great detail how the class stacks up in a historical context. I'll see if i can find it. The person uses the 247 composite and I think it's worse than what I posted. 2222 and I pm'ed about it. He totally agreed. The top teams sucked up most of the top talent. Normally there's better talent distribution. I'll try and find it and feel free to try to debunk it.

Probably should cuz it reads like #fakenews. Regardless of how the points are distributed if you have the 10th best point total you are 10th. There's nothing artificial about that.

If your point is that the discrepancy between have and have-nots has widened then that's what you should have said. And prolly provided the link if you have it. Just taking glance at the discrepancy between #1 and #10
2017 - 1176
2016 - 438
2015 - 715
2014 - 1043
2013 - 814
2012 - 670

Deeper dive - the delta between us and #1 the last few years
2017 - 1142
2016 - 661
2015 - 1349
2014 - 874
2013 - 374
2012 - 200

Edit: Inadvertently left 2017 out of my first post
 
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Omar's Coming Yo!

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Recruiting rankings and stars don't mean jack squat if the coaches can't develop them. Cowart was a 5 star recruit and Ahmad Black was a ZERO star recruit so anything can happen.
This is flat out lie. Yes you need coaches who can coach but 5*s make a coaches job a whole lot easier. Gene Chizik won a NC because of one 5* in Cam. Yes some five stars bust but far more 3*s do in comparison. Ahmad was a 4* on rivals. You got anymore lies?
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/11914
 

Jbossgator8

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Opps sorry about that!! Opps LOOKIE here baby dolls...247 had Ahmad Black as a ZERO STAR and NOT RATED!! I wish they would have just ONE site that gives out rankings but they just don't so its NOT a flat out lie. LOLOL Caleb Sturgis and Chas Henry not rated either and they were great for us. Louis Murphy a 3 star. You just NEVER know how a recruit is gonna turn out, Omar Hunter 5 star and Jarrad Davis a 3 star. WHO KNOWS WHAT TO BELIEVE??!! LOLOL
 

Swamp Donkey

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Opps sorry about that!! Opps LOOKIE here baby dolls...247 had Ahmad Black as a ZERO STAR and NOT RATED!!
Point 676,341 why 247 is absolute shyt.

They sure do a lot of advertising though. Of course, so does Kia.
 
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T REX

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Probably should cuz it reads like #fakenews. Regardless of how the points are distributed if you have the 10th best point total you are 10th. There's nothing artificial about that.

If your point is that the discrepancy between have and have-nots has widened then that's what you should have said. And prolly provided the link if you have it. Just taking glance at the discrepancy between #1 and #10
2016 - 438
2015 - 715
2014 - 1043
2013 - 814
2012 - 670

Deeper dive - the delta between us and #1 the last few years
2016 - 661
2015 - 1349
2014 - 874
2013 - 374
2012 - 200

As I'm sure many of you know, class of 2017 was a bit odd with how top heavy the rankings were, which subsequently deflated the class scores for many spots below #7 (as in, it took less points to be ranked #10 than it typically had in previous years).

It will be interesting to see if that was a 1-cycle situation, or if that will become a trend of the rich getting richer. Either way, charts below show the averages over the past 5 years:

-First one shows each spot in the top 25 individually.
-Second shows just #'s 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25
-Third shows the average score of teams falling in a given range (such as the average top 5 team, or the average 16-20 team, etc).

I like to use these when looking at mock classes to get a rough idea for where the class would end up being ranked. Happy mocking, and I'll bump this periodically (probably every time Seth drops a mock) to keep it accessible.

6_5195931.PNG


2_5195930.PNG


2_5195928.PNG
 

T REX

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I am sure I screwed everything up using Rivals...so sorry I wasted your time. That's on me.
 

T REX

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Probably should cuz it reads like #fakenews. Regardless of how the points are distributed if you have the 10th best point total you are 10th. There's nothing artificial about that.

I do disagree with this statement. I will give you an example let's say that the top 9 teams all sign the top 300 recruits(not gonna happen but I want to get my point across) in a given year. AT ten you sign the next best 30 kids. So you're tenth and you have nothing but leftovers. It's a top ten class but it sucks. I don't think you are factoring in star/talent distribution.

I thought it was interesting because sometimes 10th is in name only. Again, feel free to destroy/debunk/argue any way you see fit.
 

GatorStud

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One things for sure... we're showing this next season with what we have... I'm concentrating on bonding with the team until such time I'm shaking my head or rolling my eyes. Here's to jumping over coffee tables, spilling drinks and plenty of winning bravado game day! Go Gators!
 

ThreatMatrix

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I do disagree with this statement. I will give you an example let's say that the top 9 teams all sign the top 300 recruits(not gonna happen but I want to get my point across) in a given year. AT ten you sign the next best 30 kids. So you're tenth and you have nothing but leftovers. It's a top ten class but it sucks. I don't think you are factoring in star/talent distribution.

I thought it was interesting because sometimes 10th is in name only. Again, feel free to destroy/debunk/argue any way you see fit.

I have no idea how 247 assigns points but I'm pretty familiar with Rivals.

So star average is a better way to look at it. In fact up to signing day I look at star average and posted several times that although our points had us 30th ranked (because of so few commits) our average had us around 10th. At Rivals you can sort by star average. Also Rivals only counts your top 20 recruits in the points ranking. At the end of the day we finished 9th in points and 11th in star average.
 

T REX

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I have no idea how 247 assigns points but I'm pretty familiar with Rivals.

So star average is a better way to look at it. In fact up to signing day I look at star average and posted several times that although our points had us 30th ranked (because of so few commits) our average had us around 10th. At Rivals you can sort by star average. Also Rivals only counts your top 20 recruits in the points ranking. At the end of the day we finished 9th in points and 11th in star average.

And I appreciate your analysis. You definitely hit the nail on the head with widening gap between the have's and have not's. Thanks dude.
 

ThreatMatrix

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And I appreciate your analysis. You definitely hit the nail on the head with widening gap between the have's and have not's. Thanks dude.
There's another way to look at it instead of rankings by thinking of it as grades and let the #1 team set the curve.
So in 2016 it took a 90% to get to #10.
However in 2017 it only took a 77% to get to #10.
Pretty big difference.
 

T REX

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There's another way to look at it instead of rankings by thinking of it as grades and let the #1 team set the curve.
So in 2016 it took a 90% to get to #10.
However in 2017 it only took a 77% to get to #10.
Pretty big difference.

Again, great analysis. Take it a step further...you play half the teams ahead of you. I know that no one wants to hear it but I thought it was kinda relevant.
 

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