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Discussion in 'Main Sports Forum' started by '78, Feb 2, 2018.
Youre trying to be obtuse now.
I provided math and logic, and that's all you can come up with?
Tell her she is still my favorite poster.
So you're calling me Sybil?
So there's two things involved here: the total number of teams and the number of playoff teams.
I'm going to assume you would agree that if you expand the number of total teams, that it decreases your odds of winning the championship.
As for the number of playoff teams, let's say that some percentage of the probability of winning is based on which team is better, and the remaining percentage is based on luck. So during the regular season when you average the wins across the whole season, you make luck a smaller component the more games you play. Conversely, when you have a single elimination playoff, the more teams involved and the more games you have to play, the more luck is a factor.
So if you are one of the best teams, you'd prefer a smaller playoff, as that makes it easier to be consistent. That's why you won't see Nick Saban campaigning for an eight team playoff. It would lower his odds of winning. And you'd definitely prefer fewer teams. Who wants to deal with an upstart like UCF?
I'll assume the percentage odds. Will you?
I don't even know what you are trying to say here
Same thing I've tried saying all along. You have to get in the playoffs to have a chance. Your chances today are much better based on the math.
Chances of what? Making the playoffs, or winning the whole thing?
If winning a game is 100% based on luck, then increasing the number of playoff teams doesn't affect your odds.
If there is any skill involved, then increasing the number of playoff teams decreases the odds for the most skilled teams and increases the odds for the least skilled teams.
Lol, YOU WEREN'T PAYING ATTENTION.
No different conceptually than March Madness, though obviously on a smaller scale.
Yep. Those are the odds of making the playoffs in those two scenarios assuming it's all based on luck.
Then you'd have a 50% shot of winning the two team playoff leaving you at .14*.5 = 7% to win the title. And a 12.5% chance of winning the eight team playoff leaving you at .25*.125 = 3%.
Oddly enough those percentages are exactly the same as 1/14 and 1/32 which is why I said the number of playoff teams doesn't matter if (and only if) the only thing determining who wins is luck.
I think I'm going to go ahead and stop now because it's pretty clear that you don't understand anything I'm saying.
We're on equal ground there.
As far as you know
Yeah I know. I know if I have double the chance to get in the playoffs, I benefit.
Duh, isn't that what the NFL sought? Of course it was.
Sorry for being a jerk, but that's not correct and it doesn't seem like you even read what I wrote. I could probably explain it to you if you are really interested. My guess is that's a no.
I read what you wrote. I disagree with what you wrote.
What are you? A fvkking kickball coach?
In a 12 person league you have (all things being equal) a 1:6 chance of getting in the nfc championship game and a 1:12 chance of winning.
In a 32 team, you may have a 1:4 chanc of getting in the playoffs, a 1:8 chance of winning, a 1:16 chance of winning the conference and a 1:32 chance of winning the Super Bowl.
No, winning a 12 team conference isnt the same as winning a Super Bowl.
Youre a finance guru, dont act like you.dont fvkking know this.
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