- Nov 25, 2016
- 1,181
- 2,133
Pure conjecture, but an interesting read nonetheless.
https://www.fanragsports.com/cfb/projecting-feleipe-franks-2017-performance-sun/
How well will Florida QB Feleipe Franks perform in 2017?
Feleipe Franks was the best quarterback who participated in Florida’s spring practice, and his performance in the Orange and Blue Debut solidified him as the frontrunner in the quarterback battle. He has not won the job yet, as the injured Luke Del Rio will compete in fall camp and UF might add Malik Zaire if the SEC changes its graduate transfer rule.
The conference might not change its rule, though, and Franks has a higher ceiling than Del Rio. Since it’s May, let’s assume for a moment that the redshirt freshman wins the job and keeps it throughout the year. What kind of season should we expect from him?
I decided to project what Franks’ stat line may look like by the end of 2017. Here was the process I followed.
Pace
The first step is to figure out approximately how many plays the Gators will run in 2017.
While he was the offensive coordinator in Tuscaloosa, Jim McElwain’s Alabama offenses ranged from 63.8 to 67.6 plays per game. Two of his three years at Colorado State were in line with that range, though his second season was an outlier at 75 plays per game. His first year at Florida was also in the Alabama range, but last season was an outlier to the low side at 61.6 per game.
I don’t expect the Gators to again go as slowly as last year. For this exercise, I’ll assume an even 65 plays per game. It’s comfortably in the middle of the range for past McElwain offenses. Over the course of 13 games — assuming a bowl but not an SEC Championship Game appearance, since Georgia is the favorite and has a considerable talent edge — that comes out to 845 plays for the season.
Passing Percentage
When McElwain was calling offenses for Nick Saban, his mix was run-heavy. Including sacks as passing plays, the percentage of called pass plays ranged from a high of 47.5 percent in 2010 to a low of 38.6 percent in 2009.
Since he became a head coach, McElwain’s teams have thrown a lot more. Three of his five offenses have been within one percentage point of 50 percent passing. One was at 47.7 percent and the last was at 53.9 percent passing.
I chose to go with a mix of 50.5 percent pass. It’s within that one percentage point of 50 percent, and two of the three McElwain offenses that were in that range were on the high side. At that rate, Florida would have 427 called pass plays as a team for the year.
Not all of those pass plays called will include throws, however, as some will result in sacks. To that end, McElwain thinks his offensive line will be a strength, and he praised Franks’s ability to avoid pressure at times in the spring. His 2015 team had a ghastly sack rate of 10 percent, but last year’s line brought it down to 6.4 percent. Assuming McElwain knows what he’s talking about with the line, I chose a sack rate of five percent for 2017. It’s not elite, but it is still an improvement. That rate would give 21 sacks on the year, which also is good but not elite by SEC standards.
Taking sacks out of the passing plays, we get 406 passes thrown for the season. Presumably a backup will get some of those throws against Northern Colorado and UAB, and perhaps Kadarius Toney might get some in his Wildcat-like package, so I took out 25 to account for those factors. In the end, that gives Franks 381 pass attempts.
Picking Comparisons
Since McElwain became Alabama offensive coordinator in 2008, he has presided over four young quarterbacks in their first full years of starting: Redshirt sophomore Greg McElroy in 2009, redshirt sophomore AJ McCarron in 2011, sophomore Garrett Grayson in 2012 and redshirt freshman Will Grier in 2015.
Del Rio was also a first-time starter in 2016, but I’m putting him aside because his numerous transfers as a walk-on got him an extra year of eligibility from the NCAA. Last year was his fourth year of college despite his redshirt sophomore designation. I’m also going to leave out McCarron, as he had the benefit of playing for a fully weaponized Saban Death Star team.
That leaves McElroy, Grayson, and Grier as my three comparison points. Grayson had the weakest first year starting all around. Grier had the best by passing efficiency (if only in six games). McElroy was in the middle, albeit closer to Grier than Grayson. Those quarterbacks will make up my model for Franks.
Final Projections
In 2012, Grayson threw for 6.86 yards per attempt with a completion rate of 56.5 percent, a touchdown rate of 5.07 percent and an interception rate of 2.17 percent. Applying those to Franks’ assumed 381 passes gives a line of: 215/381, 2,612 yards, 19 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passing efficiency of 125.8.
In 2009, McElroy threw for 7.72 yards per attempt with a completion rate of 60.9 percent, a touchdown rate of 5.23 percent and an interception rate of 1.23 percent. Those figures applied to Franks gives a stat line of: 232/381, 2,940 yards, 20 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passing efficiency of 140.4.
In 2015, Grier threw for 7.48 yards per attempt with a completion rate of 65.8 percent, a touchdown rate of 6.21 percent and an interception rate of 1.86 percent. The rates from his half season of work generate a stat line for Franks of: 251/381, 2,849 yards, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passing efficiency of 145.8.
I think McElwain would be pleased with any of those outcomes considering how much better they are than what he saw from Treon Harris, Del Rio, and Austin Appleby. With the McElroy and Grier projections, a 14th game in Atlanta or even just a slightly higher passing rate for the offense would put Franks in prime position to become Florida’s first 3,000-yard passer since Tim Tebow’s Heisman winning year.
If recruiting rankings are any indication, Franks should end up near the Grier projection since they were both high 4-star recruits and their 247 Sports Composite scores were 0.0037 apart. McElroy and Grayson were both 3-star recruits, though McElroy had the luxury of throwing to Julio Jones.
Given McElwain’s optimism about the offensive line, Florida’s division-leading talent at receiver, and the presence of one of the conference’s best tight ends in DeAndre Goolsby, whoever wins the Gators’ starting quarterback job should be in position to succeed. If Franks wins the job and keeps it, McElwain’s past work with young first-year starters suggests that he will have the best year for a Florida passer since John Brantley’s 2011 while easily blowing past those totals. I think all Gator fans would take that in a heartbeat.
https://www.fanragsports.com/cfb/projecting-feleipe-franks-2017-performance-sun/
How well will Florida QB Feleipe Franks perform in 2017?
Feleipe Franks was the best quarterback who participated in Florida’s spring practice, and his performance in the Orange and Blue Debut solidified him as the frontrunner in the quarterback battle. He has not won the job yet, as the injured Luke Del Rio will compete in fall camp and UF might add Malik Zaire if the SEC changes its graduate transfer rule.
The conference might not change its rule, though, and Franks has a higher ceiling than Del Rio. Since it’s May, let’s assume for a moment that the redshirt freshman wins the job and keeps it throughout the year. What kind of season should we expect from him?
I decided to project what Franks’ stat line may look like by the end of 2017. Here was the process I followed.
Pace
The first step is to figure out approximately how many plays the Gators will run in 2017.
While he was the offensive coordinator in Tuscaloosa, Jim McElwain’s Alabama offenses ranged from 63.8 to 67.6 plays per game. Two of his three years at Colorado State were in line with that range, though his second season was an outlier at 75 plays per game. His first year at Florida was also in the Alabama range, but last season was an outlier to the low side at 61.6 per game.
I don’t expect the Gators to again go as slowly as last year. For this exercise, I’ll assume an even 65 plays per game. It’s comfortably in the middle of the range for past McElwain offenses. Over the course of 13 games — assuming a bowl but not an SEC Championship Game appearance, since Georgia is the favorite and has a considerable talent edge — that comes out to 845 plays for the season.
Passing Percentage
When McElwain was calling offenses for Nick Saban, his mix was run-heavy. Including sacks as passing plays, the percentage of called pass plays ranged from a high of 47.5 percent in 2010 to a low of 38.6 percent in 2009.
Since he became a head coach, McElwain’s teams have thrown a lot more. Three of his five offenses have been within one percentage point of 50 percent passing. One was at 47.7 percent and the last was at 53.9 percent passing.
I chose to go with a mix of 50.5 percent pass. It’s within that one percentage point of 50 percent, and two of the three McElwain offenses that were in that range were on the high side. At that rate, Florida would have 427 called pass plays as a team for the year.
Not all of those pass plays called will include throws, however, as some will result in sacks. To that end, McElwain thinks his offensive line will be a strength, and he praised Franks’s ability to avoid pressure at times in the spring. His 2015 team had a ghastly sack rate of 10 percent, but last year’s line brought it down to 6.4 percent. Assuming McElwain knows what he’s talking about with the line, I chose a sack rate of five percent for 2017. It’s not elite, but it is still an improvement. That rate would give 21 sacks on the year, which also is good but not elite by SEC standards.
Taking sacks out of the passing plays, we get 406 passes thrown for the season. Presumably a backup will get some of those throws against Northern Colorado and UAB, and perhaps Kadarius Toney might get some in his Wildcat-like package, so I took out 25 to account for those factors. In the end, that gives Franks 381 pass attempts.
Picking Comparisons
Since McElwain became Alabama offensive coordinator in 2008, he has presided over four young quarterbacks in their first full years of starting: Redshirt sophomore Greg McElroy in 2009, redshirt sophomore AJ McCarron in 2011, sophomore Garrett Grayson in 2012 and redshirt freshman Will Grier in 2015.
Del Rio was also a first-time starter in 2016, but I’m putting him aside because his numerous transfers as a walk-on got him an extra year of eligibility from the NCAA. Last year was his fourth year of college despite his redshirt sophomore designation. I’m also going to leave out McCarron, as he had the benefit of playing for a fully weaponized Saban Death Star team.
That leaves McElroy, Grayson, and Grier as my three comparison points. Grayson had the weakest first year starting all around. Grier had the best by passing efficiency (if only in six games). McElroy was in the middle, albeit closer to Grier than Grayson. Those quarterbacks will make up my model for Franks.
Final Projections
In 2012, Grayson threw for 6.86 yards per attempt with a completion rate of 56.5 percent, a touchdown rate of 5.07 percent and an interception rate of 2.17 percent. Applying those to Franks’ assumed 381 passes gives a line of: 215/381, 2,612 yards, 19 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passing efficiency of 125.8.
In 2009, McElroy threw for 7.72 yards per attempt with a completion rate of 60.9 percent, a touchdown rate of 5.23 percent and an interception rate of 1.23 percent. Those figures applied to Franks gives a stat line of: 232/381, 2,940 yards, 20 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passing efficiency of 140.4.
In 2015, Grier threw for 7.48 yards per attempt with a completion rate of 65.8 percent, a touchdown rate of 6.21 percent and an interception rate of 1.86 percent. The rates from his half season of work generate a stat line for Franks of: 251/381, 2,849 yards, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passing efficiency of 145.8.
I think McElwain would be pleased with any of those outcomes considering how much better they are than what he saw from Treon Harris, Del Rio, and Austin Appleby. With the McElroy and Grier projections, a 14th game in Atlanta or even just a slightly higher passing rate for the offense would put Franks in prime position to become Florida’s first 3,000-yard passer since Tim Tebow’s Heisman winning year.
If recruiting rankings are any indication, Franks should end up near the Grier projection since they were both high 4-star recruits and their 247 Sports Composite scores were 0.0037 apart. McElroy and Grayson were both 3-star recruits, though McElroy had the luxury of throwing to Julio Jones.
Given McElwain’s optimism about the offensive line, Florida’s division-leading talent at receiver, and the presence of one of the conference’s best tight ends in DeAndre Goolsby, whoever wins the Gators’ starting quarterback job should be in position to succeed. If Franks wins the job and keeps it, McElwain’s past work with young first-year starters suggests that he will have the best year for a Florida passer since John Brantley’s 2011 while easily blowing past those totals. I think all Gator fans would take that in a heartbeat.
