Nate Silver's flunkies at 538: Dems have an 85% chance to take the House

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Gator Fever, Oct 16, 2018.

  1. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    2018 House Forecast


    [​IMG]

    Using all their fancy stats etc. they think as of today the Dems are big favorites (85%) to take the House. My guess is this number will change as the crazy gaslighting with the lefty controlled polls is backed off some starting after about 10/23 but I look for their final analysis to still say the odds are about 65% or so.

    The one thing the Dems have going for them is money is pouring into these local House races from other Dems in places like California etc. but I think it has a hit a saturation point for Dems in many of these races where all that extra money wont do much for them any longer as far as getting votes.
     
    #1 Gator Fever, Oct 16, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
  2. Back Alley Gator

    Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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    In the meantime can you point to specific examples of poll gaslighting?
     
  3. g8tr72

    g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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    You mean other than the hilarity of the 2012/16 POTUS polls?
     
    #3 g8tr72, Oct 16, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
  4. Back Alley Gator

    Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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    Yes. Prior polls have no bearing on the current ones. I want to see why OP thinks the polls are wrong. I hope you're right...but I fear its just wishful thinking. Im expecting a bloodbath in Nov.
     
  5. g8tr72

    g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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    In full disclosure, I think the Dems will make some gains.

    But as far as "gaslighting," the prior polls absolutely have bearing on the current ones because of this very significant factor in their equation - the media that conducts most of those polls are the same liberal media that tried to influence the 2016 election.

    That alone is sufficient.
     
    #5 g8tr72, Oct 16, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
    • Gator Fever

      Gator Fever Senior Member

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      lol Look at 2016 - (Hillary may take Texas and Georgia etc about 2 weeks out. Ohio is very close) They gaslight real bad until 2 weeks out from elections (lefty controlled pollsters) and then back off inside 2 weeks some but still rig them a little in some cases.

      The gaslighting is to make Reps feel they can't win so they won't vote and then they back off and tell the Dems they must vote to actually win. That guy in Texas was never a threat to Cruz despite rigged polls
       
      • Back Alley Gator

        Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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        So....you don't have any real proof then? Not even an analysis of 'oversampling' or methodology error? Just 2016 and an assumed error in polling. I was hoping you had more than that to go on.
         
      • g8tr72

        g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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        Question: Do you believe that the media who authored the 2016 POTUS polls have changed their methods or motivation?
         
      • Gator Fever

        Gator Fever Senior Member

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        lol No you are blind if you can't see it. Not doing all the the legwork for the uninformed. Just go look at what the national polls were (realclear politics) for Hillary at the 2 weeks from the election mark and then look at how they changed quickly until just before the election so they could claim they weren't inaccurate nationally despite all their gaslighting ones up to that inside the 2 week mark.

        People on the right literally called their exact mess with the polls prior to them releasing them. They said they would stop gaslighting so much inside the 2 week mark which they did with the national polls.

        They manipulated their state polling in many cases also - sometimes even big time within the 2 week mark. Hillary was never really basically tied in Texas and Georgia etc or close in Ohio etc but naive leftists like yourself bought their mess apparently. That was for media talking points to depress Rep voters.

        This strategy seems to have been mostly started around 2014 as an actual weapon with many participants. Its probably the same reason Nate Silver has had a bad track record since that time.
         
        #9 Gator Fever, Oct 16, 2018
        Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
        • Back Alley Gator

          Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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          Leftist. That's funny. I think my post history here in the political forum kinda disproves that. Having Av on ignore is a godsend.

          What I am, however, is a believer in statistics and polling in general. Also, Trump isn't running in any of the races this November. I don't want to lose the House but am about 95% certain its going to happen. I was looking for some rational, logical evidence why that isn't going to happen.
           
          • Gator Fever

            Gator Fever Senior Member

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            It could happen but I would put the chance at about 35% looking at the races. They do have about 4 flips they are close to a lock to winning going in but to reach the number they need it won't be easy despite the huge money advantage they have in some of these races.

            The biggest joke with Silver's crowd is they would have you believe the House flipping is more likely than Reps keeping the Senate which is an absolute joke and results from using gaslighting lefty polls at this point in their formula.
             
            #11 Gator Fever, Oct 16, 2018
            Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
            • Swamp Donkey

              Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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              Almost every poll oversamples dimocrats by 10-15 percent because BLUE WAVE. Of course, the polls that oversample are used to justify the fact that BLUE WAVE is coming.

              They do this every year until a week or so before the an election.
               
              #12 Swamp Donkey, Oct 16, 2018
              Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
              • Gator Fever

                Gator Fever Senior Member

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                Yep and took it to crazy levels since 2014. Used to be just a few outliers doing it but now almost all lefty/establishment controlled ones do it real bad until inside the 2 week mark.
                 
              • NOLAGATOR

                NOLAGATOR Deep Behind Enemy Lines

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                After Kavanagh, most Conservatives are truly pissed. And this Elizabeth Warren Horse Dung just has put more fire under Conservatives to get out and vote.

                Many of these protestors are professional anarchist and are paid by people like Soros. These are not Grass Roots Tea Party types.

                And in 2020, we don’t need more GOP…We need more Constitutionalists

                I am now going to Early Vote just to make sure.
                 
                • Ancient Reptile

                  Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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                  I wonder whether the pollsters have adjusted their templates for the demographic of increased Trump voters. Also, the past may, in fact, be relevant. Does anyone know how the various polls did in 2016?
                   
                  #15 Ancient Reptile, Oct 16, 2018
                  Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
                • Gator Fever

                  Gator Fever Senior Member

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                  Their final national ones weren't off by that much but that seems to be their strategy to give non-crazy final polls to then claim they weren't rigging the polling even though they were rigging them real bad up until around 2 weeks out.

                  As far as individual polls Rassmussen which RCP didnt use in their average nailed it at 2%. Quite a few others had it around 3% to 4% but this was after having nutty Hillary is up by 11% to 13% manipulated BS around 2 weeks out. Even pulling that mess in state polling also.

                  I think that LA Times unusual methodology poll was the only one showing Trump winning the national vote %.

                  Where they missed big time underestimating Trump even in their final polls were in those midwest and rust belt states like Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.
                   
                  • Ancient Reptile

                    Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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                    Yes, thanks. The Dems missed those rust belt states as well. As Robbie Mook told poor, politically unsavy Bill Clinton when he suggested that Hillary make a late trip to the Rust Belt: "You just don't understand modern political campaigns."
                     
                    • Detroitgator

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                      If you dig into the polling data for a lot of these, you'll find an over reliance on voters that were eligible to, but did not, vote in either the 2010 or 2014 mid-term. Maybe they will this time, maybe not, but that info is in there.
                       
                      • Swamp Donkey

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                        No, they just over adjust their values for all the Dimocrats they expect. Theyve been doing it consistently since the 70s at least, but it has been much worse lately.
                         
                        • Detroitgator

                          Detroitgator General Factotum
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                          I also mentioned this fact about the NYT Cruz race poll... 51,000+ calls to get 778 respondents. Science!
                           

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