Nate Silver's flunkies at 538: Dems have an 85% chance to take the House

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Gator Fever, Oct 16, 2018.

  1. Swamp Donkey

    Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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    How many jobs have you had in the last five years?
     
  2. URGatorBait

    URGatorBait #TeamBrad
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    At least 6.
     
    • Swamp Donkey

      Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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      I'm beginning to think this dude works for a temp agency.
       
      • Concrete Helmet

        Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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        He just confuses the words terminated with quitting....
         
        • ItsDookie87

          ItsDookie87 ...it's best to let him finish

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          You guys do understand how this works right? 85% is not 100%, even if the R's keep the house or the D's win the senate it doesn't mean they were "wrong." They told you there was a chance and it happened. A 1 in 7 chance aren't great odds but it wouldn't exactly be the most surprising thing either. If you had a 1 in 7 chance of dying every time you complained about polling you would at least consider stopping your complaints about polling.
           
        • Ancient Reptile

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          Dookie may be right. Can we test the polls? Can someone record them tomorrow so we can see how they perform?
           
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

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          Yes it does when they have pulled the crap like 3 times straight. These lefty poling companies and outfits like Nate Silver coordinate their talking points hoping they can herd people to a result. Its just got silly since 2014. They did the same trick with many of them tightening their final polls at the end just to claim they weren't off super bad even though they missed on all kinds of races.

          Silver will be the fall guy this time with the left as they will never trust him again if they don't take the House but they want lefties knowing they are going to win this to get out and vote even though Silver knows the real odds are closer to 50/50 on the House.
           
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

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          The final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point, but in essence, the two parties are tied. The survey has a +/-2 percentage point margin of error.

          The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
          -------------------

          Not saying its tied up in reality but Dems need to be up over 3% probably to take the House.
           
        • divits

          divits A Muffin of the Studly Variety
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          I'm not feeling as good about this as I was a few days ago. If you thought the last two years were a $h!tshow just wait.
           
        • Blacklabgator

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        • Detroitgator

          Detroitgator General Factotum
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          606E4557-B530-427E-90D1-E170AFEC5023.jpeg
          And then I remember this poll from Michigan in 2016... friend posted it this morning...
           
          • Ancient Reptile

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            Here are the final"generic" numbers:
            Nbc/wsj D +7
            CNN D +13
            ABC/WP D +8
            Rasmussen R +1
            These numbers are different enough to distinguish right and wrong ( Ramussen +-2 error). Once we distinguish correct form incorrect, we can debate the reason, I.e., polling protocol or gaslighting.
             
          • Gator Fever

            Gator Fever Senior Member

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            CNN and NBC have went full retard on this and some of the state Senate polls. They evidently are still convinced that believing victory is almost assured will get their side out on Tuesday.

            My gut tells me Dems will win the generic house vote by 2% to 3% but that probably won't be enough to flip it to them.
             
          • g8tr72

            g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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            Not that it's relevant to this thread, but I'll be watching college basketball tomorrow night. Definitely not the election results.....
             
            • Ancient Reptile

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              The election will be the better game.
               
            • Ancient Reptile

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              Well, that is the hypothesis we hope to test, of course including Rasmussen which my liberal friends say is all in for the GOP.
               
              • Gator Fever

                Gator Fever Senior Member

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                Rasmussen only had one bad year in 2012. Combined they were the best overall in 04, 08 and 16. Even 2012 the miss wasn't a crazy miss. I think Gallup had the same number they did.
                 
                • itsgr82bag8r

                  itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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                  I can smell the patchouli from here....
                   
                • Tay Bang

                  Tay Bang I wasn't mean to Byrd

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                  • Back Alley Gator

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                    The gaslighting hasn't stopped. It appears they actually believe them this time.
                     

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