Nate Silver's flunkies at 538: Dems have an 85% chance to take the House

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Gator Fever, Oct 16, 2018.

  1. Scott512

    Scott512 Senior Member

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    Rasmussen is my go-to poll they are the most legitimate Investors Business Daily is not doing anything this year and they were also very accurate in 2016.
     
    • ItsDookie87

      ItsDookie87 ...it's best to let him finish

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      Election day was 11/08/2016, this article was from 11/06/2016 by Nate Silver:

      Election Update: Don’t Ignore The Polls — Clinton Leads, But It’s A Close Race

      "At the same time, it shouldn’t be hard to see how Clinton could lose. She’s up by about 3 percentage points nationally, and 3-point polling errors happen fairly often, including in the last two federal elections. Obama beat his polls by about 3 points in 2012, whereas Republicans beat their polls by 3 to 4 points in the 2014 midterms. If such an error were to favor Clinton, she could win in a borderline landslide. If the error favored Trump, however, she’d be in a dicey position, because the error is highly correlated across states."


      Here's another one from 10/31/2016 by Nate Silver:

      The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing

      "We’ve written about this before, but I wanted to call your attention to it again because the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split keeps widening in our forecast. While there’s an outside chance that such a split could benefit Clinton if she wins the exact set of states that form her “firewall,” it’s far more likely to benefit Donald Trump, according to our forecast. Thus, as of early Monday evening, our polls-only model gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning the popular vote but just a 75 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. There’s roughly a 10 percent chance of Trump’s winning the White House while losing the popular vote, in other words."


      Here's the postmortem on 11/11/2016 by Nate Silver if you're interested in reading it:

      Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else



      He was one of the more consistent forecasters in 2016, he was constantly trying to explain to people that 75% is not 100% and that a 1 in 4 chance were still actually pretty good odds. It also should be noted that 538 doesn't do actual polling, they just take all the polls given and put them together to get a picture of the election. Many Republican internal polls and even the Trump campaign internal polls had Trump down so it would make sense that the forecast would show Trump as an underdog. Polling and forecasting are not an exact science.
       
      • Back Alley Gator

        Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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        The polls are all wrong until suddenly, inexplicably, they aren't. I don't think this one is going to turn out the way most people on here are thinking/hoping.

        Maybe I'm wrong...but there's a better chance of the house flipping than Trask starting on Saturday.
         
      • g8tr72

        g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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        I think it's realistic to believe that this midterm will be no different than past midterm elections. Typically, the party in the WH loses seats.
         
        • Gatoravatara

          Gatoravatara Protaganista

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          I dont know. I'm not moving to Germany to work for the parent company, if that is what you asking. Almost everybody quit eharmony. Grant will still run it. In California, job migration is different than other states. People here dont stay in jobs long compared to other states and you are more likely to get poached and leave, since there are so many jobs..In Houston, normally people stayed at least 2 years in a job. At eharmony, most people got poached. Facebook poached our Chief Data Scientist, Steve Carter, and they will be rolling out a dating app shortly. In California if you are good, you get poached. If the company you currently work for doesnt step up, then you go with the poacher. I've turned down higher paying jobs here because I dont want to drive from the coast to the valley. I turned down Riot Games because they have cultural issues. You gotta do what works for you. A friends of mine went to Google. She lasted 2 years before she got poached.

          A very large software company made me an offer that I could not refuse. And I can choose whether I want to work in the office or remotely. Its a really exciting role. And It works for my weed business. So I could not turn that down.

          Last week I was hanging out in San Diego. Now I am hanging out at Pismo Beach. Tonight I'll be hanging out in one of the most liberal places on the planet, UC-Berkeley- to watch triggered students watch the election returns come in. Next week, I start my new gig. Lets see how long I last. I know it seems strange that I job hop, but since I have moved from Houston, I have more than doubled my salary and moved up fast. In Houston staying with the same company over the same time would have got me a 10% raise.
           
        • Detroitgator

          Detroitgator General Factotum
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          German women like the black D... you might want to reconsider.
           
        • Swamp Donkey

          Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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          Im not sure that doubking a Houston salary comes close to coveringnthe cost of living.

          I know it would take three to four times the salary for me.

          I have friends in Cali. They do ok I guess. However, I have probably 6 or 8 times the house as my closest friend. He lives in something Id consider a beach house. But it is in Bev Hills. Im sure it is hella expensive. Wouldnt want to live there though.

          He also gets a lot of deferred comp. Obviously, moving jobs frequently there is no way you are stacking up the deferred comp and getting it treated as capital gains.
           
        • alcoholica

          alcoholica Well-Known Member

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          So do the refugees...avatara, prove me wrong
           
        • Gatoravatara

          Gatoravatara Protaganista

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          Its closer to being triple, but you have a point about housing. In Houston I lived in a much better, larger house. I dont have kids, so not a factor. I guess I like the lifestyle heree better, but housing is challenging. Here is the view from Pismo Beach.

          20181106_070855.jpg
           
          • Gator Fever

            Gator Fever Senior Member

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            Ole Nate disagrees with me on 5 tossup Senate seats and he has the average of his formula giving the Reps just 51.5 seats after this election.

            I guess either me or him will look bad with our Senate picks after tonight.

            Nate Silver has Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Indiana and Florida being Democrat wins most likely.
             
          • Ancient Reptile

            Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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            I fear that he is right on Montana, Florida, and (probably) Indiana. I like AZ and Mizzou for the GOP.
             
          • Gator Fever

            Gator Fever Senior Member

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            Montana I am starting to doubt because people that live there are saying it will be Tester.
             
          • Scott512

            Scott512 Senior Member

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            Anything less than 54 senate seats would be a disaster. 56 plus improves repubs chances of keeping the house. 54 and less no chance.
             
          • Blacklabgator

            Blacklabgator Lurking Member
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            • Swamp Donkey

              Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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              was anyone more wrong than fivethirtyeight last time?
               
            • Ancient Reptile

              Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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              Nate still 86 per cent but prepared for reversal
               
            • Gator Fever

              Gator Fever Senior Member

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              Maybe with % but they screwed up the Senate picks also. I don't see how they can survive a House loss - their political stuff anyway.
               
            • ItsDookie87

              ItsDookie87 ...it's best to let him finish

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              So the final 538 forecast said the Dems would win 36 House seats and it will end up being between 36-40. They said the Reps would win 1 Senate seat and the final will be between 1-2. They seem to have pretty much nailed it this time.
               
              • Tay Bang

                Tay Bang I wasn't mean to Byrd

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                Ok
                 
              • Ancient Reptile

                Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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                Yeah, CNN and Rasmussen looked bad but the rest were reasonable.
                 

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