NCAA Tourney Thread

[InstiGATOR1]

http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/florida-vs-east-tennessee-state-prediction-game-preview

The Gators had problems with Vanderbilt and lost to Kentucky on the road, but they got past a rocky start with a strong February – highlighted by a win over the Cats. However, they’re flawed, and they fattened up late on a slew of easy teams – masked a bit by that win over UK.

They don’t pass well and they’re just okay from three, and their interior presence suffers injury issues up front.

The Buccaneers won their regular season and tournament championships by making just about everything. One of the nation’s leaders in field goal percentage, they have a killer up front in the abtly-named Tevin Glass – who eats up every rebound – to help out the rest of the Buc team that owns the boards and dominates on the inside.

They can hit from the outside, too, connecting on an impressive 38% from three. Active defensively, they come up with a ton of steals, move the ball around well, and do just about everything right.

Emphasis added.

Now some facts:

1. KenPom rates UF's schedule 11th, the toughest by far of any team in his top 10.

2. UF hist 36.2% of its 3s while not as good as ETSU's 38.3%, is only ok, while 2.1% percentage points higher is I guess impressive. In numbers that means if each team took 100 3s this game ETSU would on average out score UF by 6 points. Now of course any team can get hot from the arc so those numbers need not hold up in one game.

3. UF rebounds 51.3% of oppenents misses while ETSU rebounds 52.6% of oppenents rebounds. That difference does rank ETSU at 58th and UF at 102nd. UF grabs 37.3 boards per game ranking 77th while ETSU grabs 35.8 boards per game rankings 153rd. BTW, Glass averages 6.2 rebounds per game in 22.3 minutes per game with a 16.4 rebounding percentages, somewhat similar but a bit better than Hayes and Robinson in terms or rate or percentage .1 better than Robinsons 6.1 rebounds per game.

4. ETSU does have a good bit better assists per possession number than UF, ranking 95th (.201) or an assist every 5.0 possessions to UF's 235th (.173) or an assist every 5.8 possessions on the other hand ETSU has very high turnover rate ranking 307th (20.2%) or a turnover every 5.0 possessions while UF's turnover rate is ranked 49th (16.2%) or a turnover about every 6.17 possessions.

UF of course needs to come out ready to play and play hard against a team that will put it all on the line and ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN ONE GAME.

 

[MertzJay26]

The SEC has not done much recently outside of Tucky or am I wrong?

UF, UK and Tenn (one year) are the only ones who have made any noise in the tourney in the past 5 years. So you're not necessarily wrong.

 

[T REX]

UF, UK and Tenn (one year) are the only ones who have made any noise in the tourney in the past 5 years. So you're not necessarily wrong.

Just looking at the last two years - SEC is 9-8 with a lot of knock outs in the first weekend. Only two Sweet 16 teams - Tucky in '15 and A&M last year.

 

[Captain Sasquatch]

UF, UK and Tenn (one year) are the only ones who have made any noise in the tourney in the past 5 years. So you're not necessarily wrong.

Texas A&M made the Sweet 16 last year after that ridiculous last-minute comeback they had.

 

[MertzJay26]

Texas A&M made the Sweet 16 last year after that ridiculous last-minute comeback they had.

How could I forget that one

 

[TLB]

Tried to get a printable bracket from NCAA site and noticed this at the bottom. LOL.

 

[Captain Sasquatch]

So just something to chew on before the games start, I'll repeat a stat I cited several weeks back. In the history of Ken Pomeroy's ratings, a team who is in the top 20 of both his offensive AND defensive ratings has won the championship all but two times (UNC in '09 was #21 in defense, UConn in '14 was #39 in offense).

In fairness, his ratings take into account tournament games, so the ratings could change in the next three weeks, but as of right now, the only teams who are in the top 20 of both are Gonzaga, Villanova, Kentucky, and Wichita State. Obviously, UK and Wichita St. have a likely date in the 2nd round, but once again, just something to chew on while filling out those brackets.

 

[ChiefGator]

It looks like we have a reasonable change of winning a couple of games, but that depends on the team playing up to their potential. Recently they have not been doing so.

 

[T REX]

So just something to chew on before the games start, I'll repeat a stat I cited several weeks back. In the history of Ken Pomeroy's ratings, a team who is in the top 20 of both his offensive AND defensive ratings has won the championship all but two times (UNC in '09 was #21 in defense, UConn in '14 was #39 in offense).

In fairness, his ratings take into account tournament games, so the ratings could change in the next three weeks, but as of right now, the only teams who are in the top 20 of both are Gonzaga, Villanova, Kentucky, and Wichita State. Obviously, UK and Wichita St. have a likely date in the 2nd round, but once again, just something to chew on while filling out those brackets.

This will be a great stat to revisit. I wonder what the average is per year of teams that are in both. That will tell us a lot I think. Only 4 teams this year. If the average is eight, that opens it up a lot. If the average is four...well...that would be an incredible indicator.

Edit:
2017 - 4
2016 - 5
2015 - 6
2014 - 4
2013 - 4
2012 - 5
2011 - 6

That's enough for me. Great stat Sas.

 

[Omar's Coming Yo!]

On the other hand as someone pointed out, ETSU is very similar in statistics to OU:

1. ETSU is ranked 64 in Kenpom, OU is ranked 65.

2. ETSU is ranked 109th in offensive efficiency, OU is ranked 119th in offensive efficiency.

3. ETSU is ranked 44th in defensive efficiency, OU is ranked 42nd in defensive efficiency.

For comparison sake UF is ranked 31st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency.

Transitive property doesn't work in sports. Just like 8-5 Iowa can be blown out by us, they beat UM and UM destroys us.

 

[Captain Sasquatch]

Transitive property doesn't work in sports. Just like 8-5 Iowa can be blown out by us, they beat UM and UM destroys us.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Transitive property doesn't work in sports. Just like 8-5 Iowa can be blown out by us, they beat UM and UM destroys us.

Actually the transitive property probably does work in large numbers in sports, but does not work without stochastic error. Never the less, the data you cited is not a matter of transitivity or at least pure transitivitiy.

Transitivity would be something like Vandy beat UF, UAR beat Vandy, therefore UAR would beat UF. Clearly transitivity was violated in this case in the SEC this year.

The data I offered which really was a repeat of what someone earlier pointed out in either this or another thread just suggests than OU and ETSU are not only similarly ranked, but have similar offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. That means that OU and ETSU are teams of similar abilities. That does not mean UF would beat OU in a rematch despite the big win at their place. Similarly it does not mean UF will win big against ETSU.

 

[stephenPE]

Can you imagine the butthurt from Calipari if they lose to Wichy State?

I heard him interviewed yesterday and he was already whining about playing them.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

And I don't see the logic of always picking your team, just because it's our team. We're not playing well of late and are ripe for an upset. It think East Tennessee is going to surprise us. And yes I say it again... I HOPE I AM WRONG.

So if Hill had made two layups against Vandy you would be saying UF is playing great? UF lost at UK with a huge FT disparity, lost twice in Nashville in really close games UF had a chance to win at the end and beat UAR at home. All of that adds up to you thinking UF is not playing well as of late? Again had Hill made a layup or two you likely would be saying UF is playing great?

 

[MidwestChomp]

Got my tickets for Saturday night games in Milwaukee. I'm hoping for some upsets.

 

[LeeForThree]

So if Hill had made two layups against Vandy you would be saying UF is playing great? UF lost at UK with a huge FT disparity, lost twice in Nashville in really close games UF had a chance to win at the end and beat UAR at home. All of that adds up to you thinking UF is not playing well as of late? Again had Hill made a layup or two you likely would be saying UF is playing great?

If we play good defense and the offense finally gets back to clicking with Allen and Barry making shots and both PGs playing well the. We can go a long way...Final 4 even. The defensive problems against Vandy were due to the matchups and White wanting to switch every screen, UK was a ref debacle, and yet we still could have won both if our offense was even remotely close to playing as well as it did at the start of February. Play great defense with fire like we have before and feed off of it making shots and I like us against almost every team in the country...minus Arizona, Purdue, Gonzaga (would be a close game again, but no big for us), and maybe a 1 or 2 more

 

[LeeForThree]

Got my tickets for Saturday night games in Milwaukee. I'm hoping for some upsets.

Why not Thursday...that's where the fun begins

 

[Wuerffel4Pres]

So if Hill had made two layups against Vandy you would be saying UF is playing great? UF lost at UK with a huge FT disparity, lost twice in Nashville in really close games UF had a chance to win at the end and beat UAR at home. All of that adds up to you thinking UF is not playing well as of late? Again had Hill made a layup or two you likely would be saying UF is playing great?

We just don't look the same without Egbunu. Had we had him, I might have had us going to the Elite Eight, or Final Four even. Now, I just don't see it. We look gassed, almost uninspired, disinterested. Maybe that fire comes back Thursday. I sure hope so...

 

[MidwestChomp]

Why not Thursday...that's where the fun begins

I know. Splitting the tickets. My dad and brother are going Thursday and I'm going Saturday with my dad. Plus it's a 4 hour drive to Milwaukee for me.

 

[CGgater]

I heard him interviewed yesterday and he was already whining about playing them.

You surprised???