Phil Steele put out HIS top 30: UF #9

[Gatorraid81]

The scenarios in which we end up in the 10th range are slim. Starting off the season in the high teens. Maybe one regular season loss and miss the SECCG. Win a bowl game. Mid teens at best.

In this scenario we'd finish top 5 easily. Only one loss, but miss the SECCG, like 2012. We were ranked 3 that year before Louisville thumped us in the bowl game. Even mean we would beat Fsu in your scenario. Top 5 easily. There ways you could lose 3 games and be ranked 9th, probably would include a SEC Championship and a top bowl victory, but possible. Hell Spurrier lost 4 in '92 and still finished 10th

 

[GatorJB]

# 3 special teams? I know that we have a great punter and kicker, but does Steele realize that Nord is still our special teams coach? There is nothing special about that unit other than the kickers.

 

[BMF]

# 3 special teams? I know that we have a great punter and kicker, but does Steele realize that Nord is still our special teams coach? There is nothing special about that unit other than the kickers.

PREACH!!!!

 

[Gatorraid81]

# 3 special teams? I know that we have a great punter and kicker, but does Steele realize that Nord is still our special teams coach? There is nothing special about that unit other than the kickers.

Yep, return game sucks. Calloway provided a spark 2 years ago, but really made some bone headed decisions last year on fielding punts. Remember when Meyer was our coach and it seemed like we were a threat to block punts or return them every time. No excuse why our return games have been so crappy.

 

[BMF]

No excuse why our return games have been so crappy.

Disagree 100%. There IS an excuse: McElwain.

He kept Nord!

WTF?!?!?

 

[t-gator]

Steele picked us to be good in 2012 too. He picked Washington to be good last year. Makes me feel a little better, getting that kinda love from fields. I don't get it but I'll take it.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Phil's Forecast

OFFENSE -

In '15 UF avg 32.2 ppg with Will Grier at QB but just 16.5 the last 8 without him. Last year they avg'd 464 ypg with a healthy Del Rio at QB, but just 322 ypg the last 11. This year they have 9 ret st'rs and if they can keep their QB healthy, the Gators should have their best ypg this decade (368 is high).

DEFENSE -

The last 9 years Florida has allowed an avg of just 17.6 ppg. Last year they were allowing just 11.7 ppg in the first 7, but then injuries hit and it was 26.6 ppg the last 5 prior to the bowl (16.8 year). This year they have just 5 starters back (57% tkls #94) but will still be strong with 16's injuries making them more experienced than the numbers suggest.

2017 - Jim McElwain took over in 2015 (11-13 prev 2Y) and got them to 2 SEC Title Games. Last year they had their 11 game win streak vs Tenn end, but still won the East. Florida goes from #103 in my Exp Chart up to #64 and the schedule puts them as a prime contender in the SEC. While they draw LSU out of the West, that game is now in "The Swamp." Florida has just 3 true road games and Kentucky (beat them 30 str yrs) is the only one that had a winning record in '16 (7-6). They play Michigan in Wk 1 with the Wolverines having just 5 ret st'rs. All 9 sets of my power ratings call for double-digit wins and that makes them a National Title contender and a Surprise Team.

 

[T REX]

No team in the East has 3 peated to ATL since SOS 92-96.

But the East flat out stinks so who knows.

 

[oxking]

Im not sure what the mixed bag part is. It is FLORIDA, the flagship in the most fertile football state. Even the worst recruiter should have classes full of blue chippers knocking at his door and even the worst coaches, like Zook, Chimp and Butters shouldnt lose more than 4-5 fames a year.

Im pretty sure you could fire everyone, choose some random GA from UCF or FIU and have them do the same, a top 10-15 recruiting class and 4-5 losses.

Zook was a great recruiter and Chump built good defenses at least. I do not see a single thing Donkeyteeth does well except lower expectations (ie some of you calling 50th or 80th ranked offenses "progress").

The most alarming point of your analysis is the lowering of expectations. So many of us have gotten used to the dark. Of course, moving from 100+ rated offense into the 50s would be a giant leap. It would be from the gutter to the curb and still miles away from the mountain top.

 

[oxking]

No team in the East has 3 peated to ATL since SOS 92-96.

But the East flat out stinks so who knows.

Definitely a group of bottom feeders.

 

[TN G8tr]

Hard to tell, but I like Steele and his analysis each year. Seems to be one of the FEW that tend to be pretty objective and right more times than wrong. And it seems as if we all get back to the QB issue.......if one can step up, look out.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Definitely a group of bottom feeders.

I don't think you are giving us enough credit for upending the Mizzu Dynasty.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Steele picked us to be good in 2012 too. He picked Washington to be good last year. Makes me feel a little better, getting that kinda love from fields. I don't get it but I'll take it.

What did he pick for Tinerc last year?

I'll hang up and listen.

 

[CGgater]

What did he pick for Tinerc last year?

I'll hang up and listen.

Not sure where you're going with that, but nobody is saying he's always 100% right. He's more accurate than probably everyone else. I think he's the only one who predicted UF to be in the '06 MNC hunt.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Steele picked us to be good in 2012 too. He picked Washington to be good last year. Makes me feel a little better, getting that kinda love from fields. I don't get it but I'll take it.

I agree with this but the analysis should be that Florida SHOULD be in the hunt, based on our talent and experience levels (no different than any year really) but we won't be due to coaching. The analysis should be that there is no excuse for finishing with yet another terrible offense and yet another bunch of blowouts.

And, yet... there will be from the usual characters.

BTW, where did he pick us last year?

 

[BMF]

BTW, where did he pick us last year?

34th....

 

[T REX]

http://gatorchatter.com/threads/phil-steeles-top-40.9557/

In case anyone wants to see what we all said last year.

 

[Gator Fever]

Phil's Forecast

OFFENSE -

In '15 UF avg 32.2 ppg with Will Grier at QB but just 16.5 the last 8 without him. Last year they avg'd 464 ypg with a healthy Del Rio at QB, but just 322 ypg the last 11. This year they have 9 ret st'rs and if they can keep their QB healthy, the Gators should have their best ypg this decade (368 is high).

DEFENSE -

The last 9 years Florida has allowed an avg of just 17.6 ppg. Last year they were allowing just 11.7 ppg in the first 7, but then injuries hit and it was 26.6 ppg the last 5 prior to the bowl (16.8 year). This year they have just 5 starters back (57% tkls #94) but will still be strong with 16's injuries making them more experienced than the numbers suggest.

2017 - Jim McElwain took over in 2015 (11-13 prev 2Y) and got them to 2 SEC Title Games. Last year they had their 11 game win streak vs Tenn end, but still won the East. Florida goes from #103 in my Exp Chart up to #64 and the schedule puts them as a prime contender in the SEC. While they draw LSU out of the West, that game is now in "The Swamp." Florida has just 3 true road games and Kentucky (beat them 30 str yrs) is the only one that had a winning record in '16 (7-6). They play Michigan in Wk 1 with the Wolverines having just 5 ret st'rs. All 9 sets of my power ratings call for double-digit wins and that makes them a National Title contender and a Surprise Team.

I think that mess about dropping off later in the season is misleading a little despite the Jumbo package blowout of Georgia in 2014 because we did the same in 2014 with Driskel at QB early Driskeling and once the competition was better overall from week to week we dropped off some again. That is standard SOP here lately.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Pssh why would we listen to Steele when we have a donkey?

Swamp Donkey >>> Phil Steele

This whole thread is GOLD.

 

[MertzJay26]

This whole thread is GOLD.

I don’t have time to go through and find all the times you’ve been wrong (like when you gushed over the Muschamp hire )