Politigator election analysis

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Politigator, Nov 7, 2018.

  1. Gatoravatara

    Gatoravatara Protaganista

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    Two things:

    1) Democrats in red states are not "running away" from the national party. They are representing their constituencies. I have friends who are Democratic who live in WV. They are more conservative than I am. They just are not feeling Pelosi. Not that I am feeling Pelosi. So its natural that Manchin is not feeling her either.

    2) Texas Republicans are living on borrowed time. Texas is 40% Hispanic, but they just dont vote. If they decide to vote in the future, the Republicans are cooked.
     
  2. Detroitgator

    Detroitgator General Factotum
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    In January...
     
  3. Politigator

    Politigator L-boy's Cousin

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    More like 2 to 1

    Texas Elections 2018: Here’s how much Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz have raised in their midterm Senate race

    Put this in context. Cruz is an established, well known and former presidential candidate. If you know any active politician in TX it is probably Ted Cruz. He has won all of his elections easily and is generally popular among his party.

    Beto was a complete unknown and came within 2 pts of beating Cruz.

    I think this shows that TX is on the verge of being competitive, if they can offer up appealing candidates.
     
  4. Gatoravatara

    Gatoravatara Protaganista

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    Im in the Bay area. Wanna grab a drink? 20181107_071758.jpg 20181107_093821.jpg
     
  5. Detroitgator

    Detroitgator General Factotum
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    If I was there sure... I'll keep my place beach front... that I own. ;)
     
    • Gatoravatara

      Gatoravatara Protaganista

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      Come one dude. Hook a brotha up.
       
    • Detroitgator

      Detroitgator General Factotum
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      :lol: It's available to rent. ;)
       
    • Politigator

      Politigator L-boy's Cousin

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      In 2016 whites were 46% and Hispanic 38%. Hispanic population expected to equal white by about 2022. That is a huge electoral shift. Asians are only 4% but are doubling every 3 years or so.
       
    • Durty South Swamp

      Durty South Swamp doodley doodley doo!
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      popular vote... in state and district elections :bwahaha:

      you skipped right past full retard and landed on potato.
       
      • Politigator

        Politigator L-boy's Cousin

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        Congressional elections, girlfriend!

        House 'popular vote' gives Democrats something to brag about
         
      • Tay Bang

        Tay Bang I wasn't mean to Byrd

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      • gatorev12

        gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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        Yea, I'm not going to put it in the exact same words as another poster did--but his point is spot-on avatara. The US isn't a direct democracy and if it were, I'm not sure you'd like how that would look in every instance.

        The POINT of having a democratic republic was to ensure a broad consensus among diverse groups. Even back then: New England merchants had little in common with Southern sharecroppers and there were vastly different political opinions and perspectives. The ONLY reason our country has survived and flourished is because our political institutions were designed to foster and encourage compromise. No one political party or group could ever dominate over the rest of the country--and in order to effectively govern, a politician or candidate had to moderate their approach and their political agenda.

        You lose sight of that at your peril.
         
        • gatorev12

          gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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          1) I think you're sadly mistaken.
          Manchin basically disavowed the Democratic Party to get reelected in West Virginia--even floating the idea of switching parties entirely and assuring West Virginians that he'd vote with Trump on most issues. Montana's Senator had to tout his ability to work with Trump on legislative issues and many red-state Governor and House wins were by Democratic candidates expressly vowing NOT to support Pelosi for Speaker and/or by promising that they would work with Trump.

          FYI: that's how it's supposed to be and I'm glad people got elected on it. If they don't keep their promise, they'll be elected out of office in short order.

          2) Even more mistaken. As has been pointed out: Texas Hispanics aren't a singular voting block. In the Governor's race, you had a popular Republican incumbent against a Hispanic Democrat...and the Republican won by double-digits.

          I've known several strong liberals who move out to Texas and realize the benefits of limited taxation and minimal regulation. And again: I'm from Texas and of mixed origin, but my mom is Hispanic and is more Republican than I am (as are most of her relatives who've moved here). New immigrants from Mexico tend to lean toward Democrats; but people who've been here for more than a generation tend to lean Republican. And people from South America tend to be very conservative (most leave their countries after being fed up with whichever socialist dictator is seizing their investments and property).
           
          • Politigator

            Politigator L-boy's Cousin

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            Chances are if democrats keep voting popular vote majority eventually the structural barriers will fall, at least somewhat. Demographics are in their favor. NV is pretty much there, AZ is probably next then TX. GA seems to be moving too although through somewhat different demographics. Probably FL too but it is kind of unique.

            In 10 years Ds may be able to take CA NY TX and FL. That is about 60% of electoral votes.needed to win.
             
            • gatorev12

              gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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              You're making the ignorant assumption that people who vote Democratic now will continue to vote Democratic and nothing in their lives will change between now and then that gives them other reasons to consider a more conservative candidate or perspective.

              It's a comical assumption, but I'll let you make it.
               
              • itsgr82bag8r

                itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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                It shows money can buy votes.
                 
              • Politigator

                Politigator L-boy's Cousin

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                Hispanics arent a singular vote but vote about 65% D. The anti immigration rhetoric isn't helping the Rs in that respect.

                I don't totally disagree about benefits of state level republican govt.

                Valdez lost by 13pts and nobody knew who she was. Abbot beat Wendy Davis by 20+ points and she had far more name recognition including some national recognition.
                 
              • Politigator

                Politigator L-boy's Cousin

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                Not really. It mainly buys name recognition which Cruz already had, and mobilizes voters who may not have otherwise voted. I doubt people change their minds from Cruz to Beto.
                 
              • gatorev12

                gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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                So in a setting with the most unpopular President in history with tons of anti-immigration rhetoric targeting Mexicans and Central Americans...and a Democratic Hispanic STILL loses against a Republican Governor by double-digits.

                Again: not seeing how a blue Texas is "inevitable." It's the same type of crap you heard in the 80s about "the Mexican vote will eventually turn Texas into a blue state." It hasn't happened 30 years later because many of those same Hispanics (and especially their children and subseuent generations) end up growing more conservative over time. They may not necessarily approve of the immigration policy--but they certainly don't agree with Democrats on many social issues or on economic issues. And existing Tejanos (from the San Antonio area in one prominent example) that have been in Texas for multiple generations tend to be 70-30 towards Republicans. Like much of the rest of the state's demographics.
                 
                • Politigator

                  Politigator L-boy's Cousin

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                  I don't doubt there are some conservative Hispanics but if yiu are going to throw out stats like 70% of any Texan Hispanic group going 70% you are going to have to support it.

                  While this article somewhat makes your point, facts are.facts.


                  Asian, Muslim and Latino immigrants across U.S. helped Trump and GOP win

                  On Tuesday, Democrats got about 68 percent of the Latino vote, slightly higher than the 66 percent won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Republicans garnered 30 percent of their vote, just above the 28 percent Trump earned four years ago, according to exit polling.

                  Asian voters sided with Democrats 77 percent of the time in Tuesday's elections, and Republicans received 23 percent of their vote, the exit polling showed.

                  Decades ago CA was reliably republican and voted in Reagan twice.
                   

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