Predict the Senate

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Ancient Reptile, Oct 27, 2018.

  1. Ancient Reptile

    Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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    My prediction for the Senate is 53+- 1 Republican. What is your prediction? Avatara's last prediction was 50-50. Wonder if he would like to update that?
     
  2. Swamp Donkey

    Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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    58 R, a big help to avoid the tyraany of the semiDim "moderate" R's.
     
    • Ancient Reptile

      Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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      Interesting. Polls not showing it, but polls are often wrong.
       
    • Back Alley Gator

      Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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      Im going to guess 54 R.
       
      • Scott512

        Scott512 Senior Member

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      • Scott512

        Scott512 Senior Member

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        56. Repubs win 7 of 9 Senate seats to defend and win 7 of the 26 Senate seats the Democrats have to defend. the numbers game and how things are trending are heading in the Republicans. can Republicans take back the Alabama senate seat in 2020 when Trump gets reelected and we get past 60!
         
      • Gator Fever

        Gator Fever Senior Member

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        My final prediction for the toss up (5% or closer) polling averages Senate Races and number of seats held. RCP poll averages at this time included:

        Nevada (Tie): Dem wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
        Arizona (.2% R lead): Rep wins
        Missouri (.6% R lead): Rep wins and flips seat
        Indiana (1.3% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat
        Florida (2.4% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
        Montana (3.3% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
        West Virginia (5% D lead): Dem wins
        Tennessee (5.2% R lead): Rep wins

        Other races with big polling differences: Michigan (8.3% D lead), Ohio (roughly 7.5% D lead) and Minnesota special election (roughly 7% Dem lead) etc:

        Dakota flips to Reps and I am thinking we might get a big surprise possibly where one of these real big underdogs (Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota special election) outperform the polls a lot and might possibly pull the real big upset.

        Balance after election: 55 Reps
         
        #7 Gator Fever, Oct 27, 2018
        Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
      • Scott512

        Scott512 Senior Member

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        Scott512s forecast is 100% certain Republicans keep the Senate.
         
        • alcoholica

          alcoholica Well-Known Member

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          60 is not out of play at all. R's could win all 6 tossups making it 56, then you have to assume WI and MI are in play due to the Obama push there. Menendez in NJ is losing a lot of ground due to his pedophile prostitute behavior. The 60th could be Manchin where some are saying he is actually behind. Regardless, a lot of Trump capital is being spent there, which tells me that the polls are not accurate at all.
           
        • NOLAGATOR

          NOLAGATOR Deep Behind Enemy Lines

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          54

          Florida has me concerned but mostly Governor
           
        • gardnerwebbgator

          gardnerwebbgator Deplorable
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          54-46 R. If people in my native state are stupid enough to elect an open socialist to the governor's mansion, there's no way in hell skeletor do-nothing Nelson will lose.
           
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

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          Changing to 55 Rs after these new Indiana polls.
           
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

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          They have finally slowed some on the lefty gaslighting with the rigged state polls.

          Scott tied with Nelson means he is leading actually and Indiana is over Donelly will lose.
           
          • alcoholica

            alcoholica Well-Known Member

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            MI is down to a +6 Dem after being +16 a week ago.

            NJ's last three polls have been +9, +7, and +5 Dem. Watch this one.

            MN's last poll is +6 Dem, which shocked me.

            The WI race is not steady on the polls at all, but continue to watch because Obama showed up which mean the internal polling was not good.

            By the way, is everybody showing up in the chat box like two years ago?
             
            • Gator Fever

              Gator Fever Senior Member

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              We should. I have a feeling one of those 3 you mention may fall. I wonder if Trump will hit Michigan late.
               
            • alcoholica

              alcoholica Well-Known Member

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              I think NJ and MI will fall. I'm also starting to believe that Manchin could lose. WI has some heavy R star power with Walker and Ryan, I would feel good about that race if it was closer.
               
            • Ancient Reptile

              Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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              Recent polls do look good, but I think Manchin is safe. I thought he was safe even if he had voted against Kavanaugh. I have followed elections for six decades. I think this one is the most complicated that I have seen.
               
            • Ancient Reptile

              Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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              Guess Avatara is sticking with his 50-50 prediction. Or maybe that was always gaslighting.
               
            • Swamp Donkey

              Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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              Some rumors that he is promising to flip Republican.

              I don't know if the voters will trust that.

              If the Pub candidate wasnt such a loathesome slob, this might be an easy pickup.
               
            • alcoholica

              alcoholica Well-Known Member

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              I think it would be an easy pickup too. I have a friend that lives up there and he and all his friends hate Manchin.

              Just heard Newt say on Levin's show that it came out that Manchin is sticking with Shumer, but that there's some polling showing Manchin behind. I can't expect for WV to have accurate polling. Probably a lot of Byrd plants up there still.
               

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