Predict the Senate

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Ancient Reptile, Oct 27, 2018.

  1. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    Trafalgar had the white guy getting 30% of the black vote in Georgia in their governor poll.
     
  2. alcoholica

    alcoholica Well-Known Member

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    WV is now considered a toss up.
     
  3. Swamp Donkey

    Swamp Donkey Ox is a Poor Man's JBoss
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    Manchin is gonna lose. The last minute whisper promise to flip parties is desperation, and probably a lie. Too late for that.

    They hate lefties, and they aren't going to vote for Chuck Shumer.
     
    #83 Swamp Donkey, Nov 5, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2018
    • alcoholica

      alcoholica Well-Known Member

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      I think a super majority needs to be watched for tomorrow. It's in play.
       
      • Ancient Reptile

        Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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        Latest polls mostly bad news for Scott. RCP is at 53-47.
         
      • Ancient Reptile

        Ancient Reptile Senior Member
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        Source? Polls still show Manchin up 5
         
      • Back Alley Gator

        Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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        Amending my prediction to 52R at best.
         
      • alcoholica

        alcoholica Well-Known Member

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        RCP, they have now moved TN to toss up despite good numbers for the Pub, and ND from likey pub to leans Pub.

        I think what's clear is that pollsters are comfortable saying, "well I wouldn't say we got it wrong. we should a shift right in the last week, but we can only report on what the people tell us."
         
        • alcoholica

          alcoholica Well-Known Member

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          Nah, I'm thinking good news. Polls did this two years ago. Pinched towards the end, but never corrected far enough to reach the right conclusion.
           
        • Back Alley Gator

          Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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          I think its going to be Makers and Knob Hill early tonight so as to be asleep by 930. I don't have a good feeling about this at all. Not even a little bit.
           
        • alcoholica

          alcoholica Well-Known Member

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          Is Knob Hill the Wal-Mart generic, or have you already started drinking?

          [​IMG]
           
        • Back Alley Gator

          Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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          Shiit....ya got me. Been at work 1 hr and Im already drunk as fvvck. Pile on the abuse. I deserve it for that. *embarassed*
           
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

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          losing faith?
           
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

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        • Back Alley Gator

          Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
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          Yes. I have no faith in the average american voter. Never have. Never will. Think about how stupid the average person you meet is...now remember that half of them are more stupid than that.
           
          • Gatoravatara

            Gatoravatara Protaganista

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            Wow this is pretty brutal. But you might have a point.
             
          • Detroitgator

            Detroitgator General Factotum
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            So, EXACTLY like 2016? ;) But I’m with ya
             
          • Gator Fever

            Gator Fever Senior Member

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            My final prediction for the toss up (5% or closer) polling averages Senate Races and number of seats held. RCP poll averages at this time included:

            Nevada (Tie): Dem wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
            Arizona (.2% R lead): Rep wins
            Missouri (.6% R lead): Rep wins and flips seat
            Indiana (1.3% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat
            Florida (2.4% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
            Montana (3.3% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
            West Virginia (5% D lead): Dem wins
            Tennessee (5.2% R lead): Rep wins

            Other races with big polling differences: Michigan (8.3% D lead), Ohio (roughly 7.5% D lead) and Minnesota special election (roughly 7% Dem lead) etc:

            Dakota flips to Reps and I am thinking we might get a big surprise possibly where one of these real big underdogs (Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota special election) outperform the polls a lot and might possibly pull the real big upset.

            Balance after election: 55 Reps
             
            #98 Gator Fever, Nov 6, 2018
            Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
            • alcoholica

              alcoholica Well-Known Member

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              haha, I knew what you meant. But more importantly, I didn't know what I was going to drink tonight while I watch the results. Now I know I'll be drinking some Knob Creek Single Barrel.
               
              • NOLAGATOR

                NOLAGATOR Deep Behind Enemy Lines

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                I guess I am the Sunshine Pumper.

                GOP 55-56 Senators

                GOP holds the House

                DEMs go full Chernobyl and meltdown own


                I have the same feeling I had 2016.
                 

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