SBnation's 2017 Blue-Chip Ratio

[TN G8R]

https://www.sbnation.com/a/cfb-preview-2017/blue-chip-ratio

I went to a Vols site because they got a recent commitment from a WR from Florida and wanted to check it out. Saw this posted, thought this was quite interesting and wanted to share.

SBnation did a evaluation of recruiting over the past 3 years. They ranked the top ten teams associated with their blue-chip players. Alabama is number one sitting at 80%. Notre Dame is tenth sitting at 56%. Florida is in the "Blue Chip Ratio Fallers" category dropping from 54% in 2014 to 37% in 2017. Tennessee is in the "Risers" category rising from 36% in 2014 to 43% in 2017.

Obviously, we're having a nice surge in recruiting in 2018 and Mac has done well with evaluating lesser ranked recruits, but it's shocking how Florida has fell off blue chip talent wise. The struggle finding a competent QB and a productive offense is the downfall. You can see how recruits follow a top rated QB and the potential of offense (Matt Corral). Defense may win championships but offense brings in recruits.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

2015-16 dug us a deep hole. And that's gonna show up as injuries mount. Even a top notch 2018 class won't get us out of that hole.
Consider that Meyer had us in the 70's. That's what Chump inherited then put us in the 50's and got a little worse each year.
And that's right. Need 17-18 blue chips every cycle. 15-16 treads water.

 

[BMF]

This goes back to the talent level rankings, where McElwain has a 3-8 (or whatever it is) record vs teams w a higher ranked roster (based off of recruiting rankings). And again, for the "stars don't matter" crowd....you're wrong. I think you can get away with a slightly lower ranked roster IF you have a dynamic QB (see Clemson last year and FSU w Rapist). But when your roster is significantly lower ranked AND your QB position stinks....well, you get blown out 7 times in two years and finished ranked dead last in the SEC in total offense.....

 

[Durty South Swamp]

This goes back to the talent level rankings, where McElwain has a 3-8 (or whatever it is) record vs teams w a higher ranked roster (based off of recruiting rankings). And again, for the "stars don't matter" crowd....you're wrong. I think you can get away with a slightly lower ranked roster IF you have a dynamic QB (see Clemson last year and FSU w Rapist). But when your roster is significantly lower ranked AND your QB position stinks....well, you get blown out 7 times in two years and finished ranked dead last in the SEC in total offense.....

is that formula adjusted for having a sheetastic offensive coordinator as well?

 

[ThreatMatrix]

I counted blue chips using rivals so #s are a little different but it's still valid for comparing year over year
Year.....BlueChip/Total....Percentage - 4 year total....Percentage
2002* 9/23 39% (8-5)
2003 14/26 54% (8-5)
2004 12/23 52% (7-5)
-----------------
2005* 8/18 44%....... 43/90 48% (9-3)
2006 21/27 78%....... 55/94 59% (13-1)
2007 20/27 74%....... 61/95 64% (9-4)
2008 16/22 73%....... 65/94 69% (13-1)
2009 12/17 71%....... 69/93 74% (13-1)
2010 21/27 78%....... 69/93 74% (8-5)
-------------------
2011* 11/19 58%...... 60/85 71% (7-6)
2012 13/22 59%....... 57/85 67% (11-2)
2013 16/29 55%....... 61/97 62% (4-8)
2014 13/24 54%....... 53/94 56% (7-5)
-------------------
2015* 7/21 33%........ 49/96 51% (10-4)
2016 10/25 40%....... 46/99 46% (9-4)
2017 15/23 65% ...... 45/93 48%

Rivals only goes back to 2002 so that's as far back as I could go.
Some take aways:
The 2015 class was the worst going all the way back to 2002 with Zook's transition class.
Transition classes hurt.
Meyer was signing classes in the 70's which eventually got our 4 year numbers up to 74%.
Recruiting of bluechippers dropped off with Chump, compared to Meyer. Chump's classes ranked high I assume because although he took fewer bluechippers they were high quality.
Not counting transition years Meyer signed on average 18 bluechippers a class. Let's call that the gold standard.
If you're aiming for 66% bluechips that's 16.5 per class of 25.

 

[Gator Fever]

Maybe it doesn't mean much because we were at 62% in 2013 and went 4-8. That is our best blue chip % in the last 5 years.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Maybe it doesn't mean much because we were at 62% in 2013 and went 4-8. That is our best blue chip % in the last 5 years.

Still gotta coach them up.

 

[MJMGator]

Still gotta coach them up.

We haven't done that in a looooooong time around here.

 

[deuce]

This goes back to the talent level rankings, where McElwain has a 3-8 (or whatever it is) record vs teams w a higher ranked roster (based off of recruiting rankings). And again, for the "stars don't matter" crowd....you're wrong. I think you can get away with a slightly lower ranked roster IF you have a dynamic QB (see Clemson last year and FSU w Rapist). But when your roster is significantly lower ranked AND your QB position stinks....well, you get blown out 7 times in two years and finished ranked dead last in the SEC in total offense.....

I'm never wrong!

 

[ufgator812]

We haven't done that in a looooooong time around here.

Herein lies the biggest problem.

 

[BMF]

I'm never wrong!

Huh?

 

[deuce]

Huh?

It's a yoke man!

 

[NavetG8r]

It's yoke man!

 

[T REX]

It's all Urban/Muschamp's fault.

 

[gatorkev85]

It's all Urban/Muschamp's fault.

Couldn't agree more, why should Mac have to get Blue Chip players just because Meyer and Muschamp could.

 

[Omar's Coming Yo!]

37%? that's just pathetic

 

[PastyStoole]

Our recruiting used to be an embarrassment of riches, now it's just an embarrassment. I remember looking at our two-deep depth chart under Meyer, and noting with a very satisfied chuckle, that we were two-deep with 4 & 5 star players at every single position. It wasn't the percentages he was recruiting as much as it was the sheer volume. By his third year, our roster was absolutely loaded with talent.

 

[TN G8tr]

Maybe we've still not figured out the midline.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Uhhhhhhh.....clearly stars dont matter and Ole Butterriffic has rebuilt the team.

 

[78]

We'll just remind our opponents how good our 2018 class is. That should solve it.