Recruiting So Does Recruiting Class Rank REALLY Matter?

[gatordad3]

I said quite a while ago that you don't need to be top 5 every year (or any year for that matter) to be successful. If you can finish somewhere between 10 and 12, maybe 10-15, you can do very well on the field so long as 1) you fill your needs with players that fit your system and 2) you have balanced classes. You can't take 15 five star DBs with 0 offensive/defensive linemen and linebackers and expect to be successful.

With that being said, pulling in the 30th ranked class (or whatever we are currently ranked) isn't going to cut it in the SEC.

I remember when we ragged FSU about their 30th ranked classes. Damn those were the good old days.

 

[ExecutiveGator]

Look, the best auto mechanics can do wonderous things with cars. They can hot rod a Ford Escort so that it does a quarter mile in dang near 10-seconds. Amazing stuff. But let's not kid ourselves, that same auto mechanic can take a viper and have it do a quarter mile in well under 10-seconds and look bad ass as it finishes the race.

What's my point? Sure, some Escorts are great to have and hot rod. But, 9 times out of 10 I take the Viper. Why? Because the Viper wins the race 90% of the time.

Yes, rankings, which are based on quality and caliber of players, certainly matters. You cannot consistently win games with lesser talent. It just will not work, especially at Florida.

 

[Gator2222]

Disagree. You can spot those number heavy classes out and they end up outliers. The pure bluechip classes that are filled with more 4/5 stars than 3 stars...those are the ones. I've done all the research. Did you read any of those articles? They tell the story from a non-opinionated stance. Pure facts. Over the long haul better classes win more games. Period. This 10-15 garbage is purely garbage. It's rationalization for our staffs failure on the trail. Stop it.

Is this what I glossed over? I didn't see much reason to reply as we aren't going to see eye to eye on this one. I agree entirely over the long haul higher ranked classes win more games. No argument here. However, we aren't talking about 10 or 15 seasons of Mac's recruiting in Gainesville. Mac has had one and a half recruiting classes and is working on his third. None of us yet know how these classes will turn out. Very small sample size.

 

[T REX]

Is this what I glossed over? I didn't see much reason to reply as we aren't going to see eye to eye on this one. I agree entirely over the long haul higher ranked classes win more games. No argument here. However, we aren't talking about 10 or 15 seasons of Mac's recruiting in Gainesville. Mac has had one and a half recruiting classes and is working on his third. None of us yet know how these classes will turn out. Very small sample size.

Unless he flips kids left and right and absolutely kills it...the reality is that through three classes he'll be the worst recruiter on record at UF. Three classes is NOT a small sample size. In fact, one of those articles shows that every national champion over the last 20 or so years has had at least TWO top ten recruiting classes prior to their title year. It is fact and cannot be argued. OU in 2000 is the only outlier.

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/want-a-national-title-sign-top-ten-classes-020316

Your up dude.

this is an epic quote from the above article..."Every year there are tons of Tweets about how "stars don't matter," and random social media examples of two and three star athletes who have become stars in the NFL. Sure, stars may not matter for individual players -- that is, being a five star doesn't guarantee that a specific player will be a high draft pick -- but the teams that sign the most four and five stars are typically the best in the country. That's because recruiting is essentially a game of probability. the more top players you get into your program the more chances you have to develop elite first round talent. Nearly half of all five stars will be drafted. Around one percent of all two stars will be drafted. All things being equal, the more four and five stars your team signs, the better they'll be."

That should required reading for anyone the thinks "stars don't matter".

 

[Omar's Coming Yo!]

Just picked this up off the wires and it gave me pause. Clemson and Washington aren't really burning up the recruiting universe but Bama and OSU look like they are doint nicely. So in the end how much does this matter in light of the head coaches' ability and the staff? Of course stats are one of those dynamics that one can draw whatever they want from them depending on ones' biases and prejudices. I'm not a pumper for Mac but I'm definitely not calling for his head either. I want to see what his team does with his players. We have a decent QB this year I don't think we lose more than one of those games this year or last. But that's something one can never know. But those rankings below sure give me something to think about in the light of how recruiting has gone so far this year. Anyway, discuss....

ALA (1,1,1,1,1)
CLEM (11,9,17,15,15)
OHIO ST (4,7,3,2,5)
WASH (29,27,37,18,23)

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...-matters-why-the-sites-get-the-rankings-right
rankings from multiple services.

The designations are based strictly on the combined scores of the rankings alone, with no attempt to account for injuries, transfers, academic casualties, arrests or any other routine form of attrition:


'Big Six' Conference Teams by Recruiting Class
• FIVE-STAR: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas.


Note that, since 2003, the eleven teams in the "five-star" group have combined for 21 appearances in the BCS Championship game, compared to one appearance by any of the 64 teams listed below. (The lone exception in that span, Oregon, just barely missed the cut for five-star status.) The only "five-star" teams that never played for a title in the BCS era are Georgia and Michigan; among the rest, only Notre Dame failed to make a repeat trip.

• FOUR-STAR: Arkansas, California, Clemson, Miami, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, South Carolina, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Washington.

• THREE-STAR: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, TCU, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, West Virginia.

• TWO-STAR: BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, N.C. State, Northwestern, Purdue, South Florida, Utah, Washington State, Wisconsin.

• ONE-STAR: Boise State, Boston College, Central Florida, Connecticut, Duke, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, SMU, Syracuse, Temple, Wake Forest.

Over the same four-year span, those 75 teams played head-to-head 1,488 times. Here are the results of those games, with winning records in black and losing records in red:

 

[rogdochar]

 

[Bama&GatorFan]

Any of the top half of teams can really come together in one year, where their skills match up with the game plan and with each other. Also, sometimes a bunch of seniors just happen to line up at the same time. After they are gone, the team will fall again.

If you want to be a factor in the national championship race year after year, you need top level recruiting. Depth is the key. Alabama has lost some key players for example, even all-Americans. They just put another elite player in their place and they still win by a good margin. Same thing happens when great players leave early. They have plenty more behind them. Alabama has very good players leaving for other schools because they don't even get to play much. And of course good depth matters in the fourth quarter, when you have been able to substitute players throughout the game. That is when Alabama pulls away, typically.

I think the worst problem with Gator football currently is recruiting. It will take several years after Mac leaves to recover to where the Gators should be. I don't think they win the East Division of the SEC next year. I wish it were not that way, but the slope of the line is not good when it comes to Gator recruiting. It is going down.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

Mac has had one and a half recruiting classes

You can't even bring yourself to state that he's had 2. No one cares if he came in late to a bad situation, he CHOSE to do so, and has been MORE than fairly compensated for it. He's had 2 classes and is about to finish his 3rd in totally disastrous fashion. Cut the crapola.

 

[Floridagator]

without reading anything above, in short, it absolutely does. If you have a consistently top 5 class you will be in the top 10 constantly and be competitive for the playoff each time. Period. If you are not then it is easy to know it is a coaching problem because you have all the talent in the world.

 

[GatorTAG]

This is a list of national champions since our first one in '96. It's pretty much the same handful of schools every year that are vying for a championship and they are usually top 10 in recruiting. So, if your goal is to win a championship you better have top recruits. I haven't looked but I can just about guarantee you that these school's recruiting classes were top 10 for most of those teams. Yes, recruiting ranking absolutely matters. It's all about the Jimmy's and Joe's.

2015 Alabama
2014 Ohio State
2013 Florida State
2012 Alabama
2011 Alabama
2010 Auburn
2009 Alabama
2008 Florida
2007 Louisiana State
2006 Florida
2005 Texas
2004 Southern California
2003 Louisiana State, Southern California
2002 Ohio State
2001 Miami (Fla.)
2000 Oklahoma
1999 Florida State
1998 Tennessee
1997 Michigan, Nebraska
1996 Florida

 

[T REX]

This is a list of national champions since our first one in '96. It's pretty much the same handful of schools every year that are vying for a championship and they are usually top 10 in recruiting. So, if your goal is to win a championship you better have top recruits. I haven't looked but I can just about guarantee you that these school's recruiting classes were top 10 for most of those teams. Yes, recruiting ranking absolutely matters. It's all about the Jimmy's and Joe's.

2015 Alabama
2014 Ohio State
2013 Florida State
2012 Alabama
2011 Alabama
2010 Auburn
2009 Alabama
2008 Florida
2007 Louisiana State
2006 Florida
2005 Texas
2004 Southern California
2003 Louisiana State, Southern California
2002 Ohio State
2001 Miami (Fla.)
2000 Oklahoma
1999 Florida State
1998 Tennessee
1997 Michigan, Nebraska
1996 Florida

Since 1996 every team that has won a national title except for Oklahoma in 2000 has had at least two top ten national signing classes in the four years before a title. So while signing a top ten recruiting class doesn't guarantee that you're going to win a national title -- indeed, there are plenty of teams that don't -- for 19 of the past 20 years, you can't win a title without at least two top ten recruiting classes. More interestingly, every champion from the past ten years with the exception of Auburn in 2010 has had at least three top ten recruiting classes in the four years before it won a title.

 

[NavetG8r]

Any of the top half of teams can really come together in one year, where their skills match up with the game plan and with each other. Also, sometimes a bunch of seniors just happen to line up at the same time. After they are gone, the team will fall again.

If you want to be a factor in the national championship race year after year, you need top level recruiting. Depth is the key. Alabama has lost some key players for example, even all-Americans. They just put another elite player in their place and they still win by a good margin. Same thing happens when great players leave early. They have plenty more behind them. Alabama has very good players leaving for other schools because they don't even get to play much. And of course good depth matters in the fourth quarter, when you have been able to substitute players throughout the game. That is when Alabama pulls away, typically.

I think the worst problem with Gator football currently is recruiting. It will take several years after Mac leaves to recover to where the Gators should be. I don't think they win the East Division of the SEC next year. I wish it were not that way, but the slope of the line is not good when it comes to Gator recruiting. It is going down.

There's a lot of truth in what you say. I keep waiting for recruits to figure out that @ Bama, they're just another 4* or 5* waiting in line for a couple years or until someone gets hurt. @many other schools, they can be the starter sooner. Eventually it's going to dawn on these guys why Bama is starting to have transfers every year. There simply isn't room in the starting line up for all them 4 and 5 star players. It'll catch up with Bama eventually imo. Kids like to win, that's true, but they like to get on the field and play too.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Well recruiting matters but it is not the beginning and the end coaching:

1. Recruiting can get you into the top 10, but coaching and getting the right top players is the key to getting into the top 5 and winning it all. In 1992 when Florida had 3 top rated QBs, Kannell, Kresser and Wuerffel, everyone wanted to get those guys and really Kannell and Kresser were viewed as better than Wuerffel. UF got Wuerffel and he ended up being the best of the lot by far. Of course, UF got both Wuerffel and Kresser while FSU got Kannell so signing more of the top players worked out for UF that time.

2. There is a causality issue here. It could be that in that data above, UWash is lower recruiting than the other ones because they have not been winning so much recently. If they keep winning maybe they get better recruits or maybe their recruits get ranked higher. This has long been a problem issue in recruit rankings. And ranking recruits by offers is not all that terrible either, but it can mask the role of coaching vis-a-vis recruiting.

3. There is also a problem with comparing over classes. If you get the best class of a bad year, maybe your roster is not what it could be. This is like the falicy of thinking the best QB in one class is necessarily better than the 8th ranked QB in another class.

4. As others have said, filling your needs is more important than raw ranking.

 

[GatorAuthor]

Those people are talking about Saban at Alabama which was his 4th college head coaching position. If you are going to compare Saban and Mac then it would be more fair to compare Saban in his second college head coaching position.

Saban landed his second college head coach position, and his first at what is now a Power 5 school, at Michigan State. His very first game was against Nebraska and Saban's team lost 50-10. That same season he lost to Wisconsin 45-14. He lost the bowl game to LSU 45-26.

In his first 4 seasons at MSU Saban went 6-5-1, 6-6, 7-5 and 6-6. Finally in his 5th season he led the Spartans to a 9-2 record and finished 2nd in the conference. Overall he was 34-24-1 at MSU and 23-16-1 in the conference.

I bet there were a lot of Spartans fans who wanted that idiot coach fired in his second season.

Such a good post. Thanks for the info.

 

[GatorAuthor]

You're as tone deaf as he is. This isn't Michigan State. Mac will score Leatherwood, Stidham and many other 4/5 stars, beat Iowa and go 10-3 next year or he's fired. I doubt he saves his job.

I never compare Saban to Mac because it's hilarious. Mac runs the team like he's still at CSU. UF is too big for Montana Sky guy.

PS Nice gloss over on the recruiting facts.

So you know exactly how Mac has set up his administrative structure and how he's running the team? How, precisely, does his entire system differ from Saban's? Is his set of processes different at UF than it was at CSU? Give specific examples of each, and either explain each detailed assertion or tell us which members of the staff or UAA employees are your inside sources (don't need names, obs, but general description of the position). Thanks.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

This is a list of national champions since our first one in '96. It's pretty much the same handful of schools every year that are vying for a championship and they are usually top 10 in recruiting. So, if your goal is to win a championship you better have top recruits. I haven't looked but I can just about guarantee you that these school's recruiting classes were top 10 for most of those teams. Yes, recruiting ranking absolutely matters. It's all about the Jimmy's and Joe's.

2015 Alabama
2014 Ohio State
2013 Florida State
2012 Alabama
2011 Alabama
2010 Auburn
2009 Alabama
2008 Florida
2007 Louisiana State
2006 Florida
2005 Texas
2004 Southern California
2003 Louisiana State, Southern California
2002 Ohio State
2001 Miami (Fla.)
2000 Oklahoma
1999 Florida State
1998 Tennessee
1997 Michigan, Nebraska
1996 Florida

Pure coincidence.

Also, pure coincidence that Saban was 7-5 most years with 3 star talent

 

[Swamp Donkey]

4. As others have said, filling your needs is more important than raw ranking.

We arent filling our needs. We are on track to sign zero DTs for the third straight year. We need 5 OL per class and signed three last year and have 1 this year (who everyone knows isnt going to sign with us). We flirted with Bammers and Meatchicken's inside linebackers til the last day. We had to settle for one i side backer and praying some of the others put on 40-50 lbs.

Your Wuerrfel, KanellJay, Kresser example is bizarre. You realize that Bama, OSU, and Clowns are getting the Wuerrfel, Kresser, and Kanelljays while we are landing people that arent even on the list, right?

I will change my tune if recruiting turns around quickly, but saying we are recruiting to fill our needs is totally divorced from reality. If anything our roster will be more screwed up next year than when Chimp left.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

We arent filling our needs. We are on track to sign zero DTs for the third straight year. We need 5 OL per class and signed three last year and have 1 this year (who everyone knows isnt going to sign with us). We flirted with Bammers and Meatchicken's inside linebackers til the last day. We had to settle for one i side backer and praying some of the others put on 40-50 lbs.

Your Wuerrfel, KanellJay, Kresser example is bizarre. You realize that Bama, OSU, and Clowns are getting the Wuerrfel, Kresser, and Kanelljays while we are landing people that arent even on the list, right?

I will change my tune if recruiting turns around quickly, but saying we are recruiting to fill our needs is totally divorced from reality. If anything our roster will be more screwed up next year than when Chimp left.

Seriously? This thread was NOT about UF, but rather the how important recruiting rankings are. Now I am not surprised that someone might hijack this thread to UF football recruiting.

So I guess I could comment on my points point by point:

1. This is one reason I am uncomfortable with McElwain. I am of the view even if the recruiting were better, I am not sure he is the guy.

2. I personally believe that if UF's record and results (ie fewer or no end of the season blowouts) were better, UF's recruits would be ranked higher. Some of it would be UF getting better recruits and some of it would be guys committing to UF being ranked higher.

3. I have no idea if this is a good year or a bad year for football players. Maybe UF got the number one OT Ivey but it was not such a great year for OT and Ivey would have been say the 7th OT prospect in another year. Or maybe it was a good year and Ivey was the best OT prospect for five years. That is tough to know but it does matter.

4. I am not sure if UF is filling needs or not. I am less concerned about signing high school D-tackles as college D-tackles are often high school DEs or LBs. That gives a college program D-tackles who can run better. Similarly players can grow into OL and be athletic OL.

I will have an opinion about this years class after it is signed. As far as last years class:

A. Two QBs fit a need.

B. After getting Perine, I am not sure why UF wastes a spot on a JUCO RB?

C. 3 OL was one or two shy, but not terrible in my mind IF you think you have some young OL already playing from last year. Also 3 OL per year for 5 years and you will have plenty on your roster unless you have unusual attrition.

D. Some of the WRs (Cleveland) contributed this year and offensive skill players was a need. I am a skeptic about JUCO so I wondered about the JUCO WR who was injured early.

E. The place kicker was a real success story.

So a 12th ranked class that has shown some early signes of contributing is pretty good in my opinion. We shall see how the 2017 class shapes up.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

Seriously? This thread was NOT about UF, but rather the how important recruiting rankings are. Now I am not surprised that someone might hijack this thread to UF football recruiting.

So I guess I could comment on my points point by point:

1. This is one reason I am uncomfortable with McElwain. I am of the view even if the recruiting were better, I am not sure he is the guy.

2. I personally believe that if UF's record and results (ie fewer or no end of the season blowouts) were better, UF's recruits would be ranked higher. Some of it would be UF getting better recruits and some of it would be guys committing to UF being ranked higher.

3. I have no idea if this is a good year or a bad year for football players. Maybe UF got the number one OT Ivey but it was not such a great year for OT and Ivey would have been say the 7th OT prospect in another year. Or maybe it was a good year and Ivey was the best OT prospect for five years. That is tough to know but it does matter.

4. I am not sure if UF is filling needs or not. I am less concerned about signing high school D-tackles as college D-tackles are often high school DEs or LBs. That gives a college program D-tackles who can run better. Similarly players can grow into OL and be athletic OL.

I will have an opinion about this years class after it is signed. As far as last years class:

A. Two QBs fit a need.

B. After getting Perine, I am not sure why UF wastes a spot on a JUCO RB?

C. 3 OL was one or two shy, but not terrible in my mind IF you think you have some young OL already playing from last year. Also 3 OL per year for 5 years and you will have plenty on your roster unless you have unusual attrition.

D. Some of the WRs (Cleveland) contributed this year and offensive skill players was a need. I am a skeptic about JUCO so I wondered about the JUCO WR who was injured early.

E. The place kicker was a real success story.

So a 12th ranked class that has shown some early signes of contributing is pretty good in my opinion. We shall see how the 2017 class shapes up.

14th. And the defense we run requires actual DTs, not hybrids or DEs playing inside. DTs running fast has zero to do with the interior of our defense. Being big heavy, strong hole pluggers has everything to do with the defense we run.

 

[g8trs99]

#1 player in the 2017 ESPN 300 about to announce and doesn't even have a UF hat on the table. Freaking Ole Miss, UT and ND hats on the table. Gross. Yeah, recruiting is important and we are failing.
On another note Trey Smith seems undersized to be the #1. He seems like a DJ Humphries.