- Oct 5, 2017
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Well, here it is, looking at part 3 of why the Gators could win 10 this year. This time it's looking at our schedule, which I think is advantageous. I'll be more in depth on some more than others. I will give why I think the Gators can win these games at this point in time. Obviously, things like injuries/suspensions can have an impact.It doesn't mean that we won't drop a game we shouldn't or win one we probably shouldn't. I'm not here saying "12-0 for the first time ever". I'm saying why it's winnable and in these games, we could find 10 wins.
Charleston Southern
In 2009, when the offense began to decline under Addazio, who was our first opponent? Charleston Southern. Could they be the beginning of our incline? I'll have more later in the week about this game, but this is a game that you need to win, and big. Easy W.
Kentucky
If there was ever a year that Kentucky was set up to beat us, it was last year. Losing Stephen Johnson among other big names isn't going to help them in their first road game of the season in the Swamp. The streak continues. W.
Colorado State
7-6 a year ago. This is a W. If that comes back to bite me, we have a losing record staring us down.
Tennessee
Recently, in an interaction with a UT fan on twitter, I was asked why I believed that the coaching overall was more drastic and could turn the program around faster than the change at UT. One, I don't think UT players had such a poor S&C program players were paying private gyms for workouts. Two, the HC debacle with Schiano. Three, your running back coach is Chris Weinke, a former FSU QB who was an analyst last season. Also, that defense is in further shambles than ours. Btw, Chris Rumph really is the OLB coach? Not the DL where he was good for Bama and UF? Also, is there any returning player on this Vols team that scares you other than possibly Jennings returning from injury? Is there a possibility the Vols win this in Knoxville? Yea, but although possible, I don't see probable. This goes back to the above discussion and part one, I think our coaching upgrades (S&C, QB, OC, WR, & TE/ST) are a significantly bigger gap filler than any change at Tennessee. The 19 returning starters at UF who beat UT last year, is also a difference maker here.
Mississippi State
Starkville, Davis Wade Stadium, Cow Bells. Spurrier didn't win here. Zook got fired for not winning here. Meyer barely won here against an awful team. This stadium is the reason why UF doesn't play on any day but Saturday. There is a history here. Now a new storyline, Dan Mullen returns to #FailState to face the very team he recruited. This is, in my opinion, one of the two toughest games on our schedule. For reasons already listed and the team that is there. The question that people don't want to answer is, if Mullen and this crew cannot get or develop talent, why is this trip as ominous as it is.
Why can UF win in Starkville?
Bob Shoop. I could argue Nick Fitzgerald and his inconsistent passing, but I'll go with the defense. They were 110 in 2016, Grantham got them to 10 last year. Yes, a 100 spot jump in Total Defense. Bob Shoop, was 82nd at UT and allowed over 3000 yards rushing. Talent may help Shoop some, but with our backfield, we might be able to run a train through Mississippi. Question is, what #FailState D shows up? 2016 or 2017? I'd say Shoop is closer to 2016.
LSU
People question why I don't put Eddy Pineiro in as a top 2 UF Kicker of all time. Because we lost to LSU on a missed extra point last year. Ok, not my only reason why I prefer Jeff Chandler, Caleb Sturgis, and Collins Cooper (JUST KIDDING ON THAT ONE, DON'T HAVE A HEART ATTACK). I just bring it up that there isn't much change on LSU's side from a one point game other than some talent loss. However, our talent gains and coaching gains, I think make up for that one point and more. Throw in motivation after the Petty tribute deal last year, avenging a loss, this being at home, and maybe a cat skeleton and we have ourselves a good shot here.
Why UF can win at home, while celebrating Tebow:
Ed Orgeron. Is there any guy who fails upwards better? Also, see above.
Vandy
Remember when UF had a consistent SEC East Schedule? I member. Vandy is the game that has been moved around a lot lately. It's Vandy, Shurmur is underrated and would have won the game last year if not for Davis' First Down/TD late. We win here in what I'm still thinking may be my first trip to Nashville (the wife and I have considered making the road trip and tickets aren't selling out any time soon).
UGA
#2 of 2 in the toughest games for 2018 in my opinion. UGA lost a bit, but didn't lose enough for me to believe they are taking a significant step backwards this season. I do think we take a significant step forward, enough to make this a game.
Why UF can win in Jax:
1. Being blessed to go to every UF-UGA game since the '93 TO game except '95, '98, and '05 I've seen the underdog win, and even win big, more than my fair share of times. Whether it was the damn bubble screens, the endzone celebration, or even Matt Jones/Kelvin Taylor (the day Fred Taylor said I answered trivia questions too fast) going off, I've seen each side pull off improbable victories.
2. Still not convinced about Fromm's arm. If we can make him throw, we could have a good chance. "But Truth, he had that long passing TD last year, I checked the box score", yeah, on a screen pass the one time Randy Shannon decided to blitz. Imagine that.
3. There probably won't be a death threats distraction and rumors of a coach being fired for cause the following day that the coach has to address at breakfast this year. But stranger things...
Mizzou
I put 0 stock in last year's game for analyzing this years. Is that different than I will other games? Yes. Why? Circumstances. That team wasn't winning the week Mac got fired while Nuss got to stay on with Shannon at the helm, sorry. This is at home, and I think we will be doing well enough the Swamp will be rocking.
Why UF can win at home against Mizzou:
Derek Dooley. Heupel was the perfect hire for UCF in my opinion. So, who do you replace a wide open, up tempo, cutting edge offensive guru with? Derek Dooley. HAHAHA. Poor Drew Lock, he's a good QB. But bring on a position coach who did wonders for UT. I'd be shocked if Mizzou averages over 350 ypg this season (502 last season).
South Carolina
Last season, this game was a cluster and featured a sure INT return for a TD (maybe just short) being fumbled at the goal line, two receivers running into each other while wide open behind the D, and other shenanigans. "But Truth, they have Deebo Samuel returning
". Thank you Mr. Straw, I'll give you Deebo Samuel returning 
and raise you Malik Davis, Jordan Scarlett, Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes and Van Jefferson returning or joining the team along with our coaching upgrades. I don't get the love for a team that had an evenly bad offense with us last year. Jake Bentley is decent, but I will not trust that Muschamp knows what an offense is until I see it.
Why UF can beat Muschamp in Gainesville:
It's at home. It's Muschamp. I don't see South Carolina taking the jump that UF does this year for reasons stated above and in parts 1 and 2 of the series.
Idaho
I can't believe that we play two FCS teams...oh, this was a re-schedule of the cancelled 2014 game? Oh, Idaho was FBS when scheduled? Oh, people whining mostly don't acknowledge or realize this? If Mullen loses this there shouldn't be a year 2. Win.
FSU
FSU, UT and UF all with new staffs. I'd put UF at a higher upgrade level. This is in Joke Campbell, but I like our offensive firepower upgrades over those in Tally. I like our defense more than those in Tally. We had nothing to play for last year, they had something to play for. We have a major losing streak and if you think Mullen doesn't see or hear about all the desire to beat FSU and its impact on recruiting, welcome to this site. I am sure Mullen knows the importance of this game. I know he knows the streak must be broken. I don't think he will motivate the team more for any game than this one.
Why UF can when in Ron Zook Field at Joke Campbell Stadium:
See above. See Taggart's overall poor record. See our skill position talent. See the RS Seniors who witnessed the only other RS Seniors to never beat FSU last year and the disappointment. If this team isn't motivated here, against a team in FSU that was poor last year as well, then they don't deserve to play the game. For this team, there is no other game, just this game. If I could get one win out of UT, LSU, UGA, and FSU this year, it's FSU. I know this isn't a great argument, but it's what it is. If Dan Mullen is who we hear he is, and if Taggart is who we think he is, this should be a W.
When you look at the coaching upgrades, even if from poor to average at some positions we have, it's a big change from last year, if you look at the returning talent overall, and the impact of S&C, experience, and coaching on that talent, it's a big change from last season, and if you look at the mostly static teams we face this season, our big changes take us over the small margin of loss from last season. We gain two wins from dropping Michigan for Charleston Southern and playing 12 instead of 11, we shouldn't lose to LSU by a missed xp at home this year and they've lost more talent while we've gained that and coaching, the joke circumstances that were South Carolina and Mizzou last year aren't happening and we've gained a lot while they've lost plenty (LOL @ Derek Dooley), and FSU will be circled on this team's calendar whether they admit it or not. There's your 10 wins with punching chances with #failstate and uga. Could we drop one of the 10 I think should be wins? Yes. Could we pull out a surprise at one of the two I think will be most difficult? Yes. This is college football. One week to kickoff. And knock off that Chomp Chomp bs I never saw until Mac came here. And stop chanting for kickers unless its after a game winning kick as time expires. Be better than that.
Time to believe until we are given reasons not to. Buckle up. Gonna be fun ride.
Charleston Southern
In 2009, when the offense began to decline under Addazio, who was our first opponent? Charleston Southern. Could they be the beginning of our incline? I'll have more later in the week about this game, but this is a game that you need to win, and big. Easy W.
Kentucky
If there was ever a year that Kentucky was set up to beat us, it was last year. Losing Stephen Johnson among other big names isn't going to help them in their first road game of the season in the Swamp. The streak continues. W.
Colorado State
7-6 a year ago. This is a W. If that comes back to bite me, we have a losing record staring us down.
Tennessee
Recently, in an interaction with a UT fan on twitter, I was asked why I believed that the coaching overall was more drastic and could turn the program around faster than the change at UT. One, I don't think UT players had such a poor S&C program players were paying private gyms for workouts. Two, the HC debacle with Schiano. Three, your running back coach is Chris Weinke, a former FSU QB who was an analyst last season. Also, that defense is in further shambles than ours. Btw, Chris Rumph really is the OLB coach? Not the DL where he was good for Bama and UF? Also, is there any returning player on this Vols team that scares you other than possibly Jennings returning from injury? Is there a possibility the Vols win this in Knoxville? Yea, but although possible, I don't see probable. This goes back to the above discussion and part one, I think our coaching upgrades (S&C, QB, OC, WR, & TE/ST) are a significantly bigger gap filler than any change at Tennessee. The 19 returning starters at UF who beat UT last year, is also a difference maker here.
Mississippi State
Starkville, Davis Wade Stadium, Cow Bells. Spurrier didn't win here. Zook got fired for not winning here. Meyer barely won here against an awful team. This stadium is the reason why UF doesn't play on any day but Saturday. There is a history here. Now a new storyline, Dan Mullen returns to #FailState to face the very team he recruited. This is, in my opinion, one of the two toughest games on our schedule. For reasons already listed and the team that is there. The question that people don't want to answer is, if Mullen and this crew cannot get or develop talent, why is this trip as ominous as it is.
Why can UF win in Starkville?
Bob Shoop. I could argue Nick Fitzgerald and his inconsistent passing, but I'll go with the defense. They were 110 in 2016, Grantham got them to 10 last year. Yes, a 100 spot jump in Total Defense. Bob Shoop, was 82nd at UT and allowed over 3000 yards rushing. Talent may help Shoop some, but with our backfield, we might be able to run a train through Mississippi. Question is, what #FailState D shows up? 2016 or 2017? I'd say Shoop is closer to 2016.
LSU
People question why I don't put Eddy Pineiro in as a top 2 UF Kicker of all time. Because we lost to LSU on a missed extra point last year. Ok, not my only reason why I prefer Jeff Chandler, Caleb Sturgis, and Collins Cooper (JUST KIDDING ON THAT ONE, DON'T HAVE A HEART ATTACK). I just bring it up that there isn't much change on LSU's side from a one point game other than some talent loss. However, our talent gains and coaching gains, I think make up for that one point and more. Throw in motivation after the Petty tribute deal last year, avenging a loss, this being at home, and maybe a cat skeleton and we have ourselves a good shot here.
Why UF can win at home, while celebrating Tebow:
Ed Orgeron. Is there any guy who fails upwards better? Also, see above.
Vandy
Remember when UF had a consistent SEC East Schedule? I member. Vandy is the game that has been moved around a lot lately. It's Vandy, Shurmur is underrated and would have won the game last year if not for Davis' First Down/TD late. We win here in what I'm still thinking may be my first trip to Nashville (the wife and I have considered making the road trip and tickets aren't selling out any time soon).
UGA
#2 of 2 in the toughest games for 2018 in my opinion. UGA lost a bit, but didn't lose enough for me to believe they are taking a significant step backwards this season. I do think we take a significant step forward, enough to make this a game.
Why UF can win in Jax:
1. Being blessed to go to every UF-UGA game since the '93 TO game except '95, '98, and '05 I've seen the underdog win, and even win big, more than my fair share of times. Whether it was the damn bubble screens, the endzone celebration, or even Matt Jones/Kelvin Taylor (the day Fred Taylor said I answered trivia questions too fast) going off, I've seen each side pull off improbable victories.
2. Still not convinced about Fromm's arm. If we can make him throw, we could have a good chance. "But Truth, he had that long passing TD last year, I checked the box score", yeah, on a screen pass the one time Randy Shannon decided to blitz. Imagine that.
3. There probably won't be a death threats distraction and rumors of a coach being fired for cause the following day that the coach has to address at breakfast this year. But stranger things...
Mizzou
I put 0 stock in last year's game for analyzing this years. Is that different than I will other games? Yes. Why? Circumstances. That team wasn't winning the week Mac got fired while Nuss got to stay on with Shannon at the helm, sorry. This is at home, and I think we will be doing well enough the Swamp will be rocking.
Why UF can win at home against Mizzou:
Derek Dooley. Heupel was the perfect hire for UCF in my opinion. So, who do you replace a wide open, up tempo, cutting edge offensive guru with? Derek Dooley. HAHAHA. Poor Drew Lock, he's a good QB. But bring on a position coach who did wonders for UT. I'd be shocked if Mizzou averages over 350 ypg this season (502 last season).
South Carolina
Last season, this game was a cluster and featured a sure INT return for a TD (maybe just short) being fumbled at the goal line, two receivers running into each other while wide open behind the D, and other shenanigans. "But Truth, they have Deebo Samuel returning
". Thank you Mr. Straw, I'll give you Deebo Samuel returning and raise you Malik Davis, Jordan Scarlett, Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes and Van Jefferson returning or joining the team along with our coaching upgrades. I don't get the love for a team that had an evenly bad offense with us last year. Jake Bentley is decent, but I will not trust that Muschamp knows what an offense is until I see it. Why UF can beat Muschamp in Gainesville:
It's at home. It's Muschamp. I don't see South Carolina taking the jump that UF does this year for reasons stated above and in parts 1 and 2 of the series.
Idaho
I can't believe that we play two FCS teams...oh, this was a re-schedule of the cancelled 2014 game? Oh, Idaho was FBS when scheduled? Oh, people whining mostly don't acknowledge or realize this? If Mullen loses this there shouldn't be a year 2. Win.
FSU
FSU, UT and UF all with new staffs. I'd put UF at a higher upgrade level. This is in Joke Campbell, but I like our offensive firepower upgrades over those in Tally. I like our defense more than those in Tally. We had nothing to play for last year, they had something to play for. We have a major losing streak and if you think Mullen doesn't see or hear about all the desire to beat FSU and its impact on recruiting, welcome to this site. I am sure Mullen knows the importance of this game. I know he knows the streak must be broken. I don't think he will motivate the team more for any game than this one.
Why UF can when in Ron Zook Field at Joke Campbell Stadium:
See above. See Taggart's overall poor record. See our skill position talent. See the RS Seniors who witnessed the only other RS Seniors to never beat FSU last year and the disappointment. If this team isn't motivated here, against a team in FSU that was poor last year as well, then they don't deserve to play the game. For this team, there is no other game, just this game. If I could get one win out of UT, LSU, UGA, and FSU this year, it's FSU. I know this isn't a great argument, but it's what it is. If Dan Mullen is who we hear he is, and if Taggart is who we think he is, this should be a W.
When you look at the coaching upgrades, even if from poor to average at some positions we have, it's a big change from last year, if you look at the returning talent overall, and the impact of S&C, experience, and coaching on that talent, it's a big change from last season, and if you look at the mostly static teams we face this season, our big changes take us over the small margin of loss from last season. We gain two wins from dropping Michigan for Charleston Southern and playing 12 instead of 11, we shouldn't lose to LSU by a missed xp at home this year and they've lost more talent while we've gained that and coaching, the joke circumstances that were South Carolina and Mizzou last year aren't happening and we've gained a lot while they've lost plenty (LOL @ Derek Dooley), and FSU will be circled on this team's calendar whether they admit it or not. There's your 10 wins with punching chances with #failstate and uga. Could we drop one of the 10 I think should be wins? Yes. Could we pull out a surprise at one of the two I think will be most difficult? Yes. This is college football. One week to kickoff. And knock off that Chomp Chomp bs I never saw until Mac came here. And stop chanting for kickers unless its after a game winning kick as time expires. Be better than that.
Time to believe until we are given reasons not to. Buckle up. Gonna be fun ride.
But I do get your point. I do think it was an abnormality and the team quitting at the UGA game (for the rest of the season) because of the Mac situation didn't help. 
