- Sep 8, 2014
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WHERE TO IMPROVE
THE FLORIDA GATORS OFFENSE
http://www.gatorcountry.com/feature/where-to-improve-the-florida-gators-offense/
The Florida Gators’ offense over the last seven years has been offensive.
We know that and we don’t need to rehash it.
Florida is now in their third year of Jim McElwain’s and Doug Nussmeier’s offense and while it has shown flashes of what could be, it has never been consistent. Whether injuries (or drug usage), player personnel, or overall uncreative play-calling have hindered their ability to put up points and yardage, Florida fans (and coaches, players, and recruits) are clamoring for this year to be the year for offensive improvement.
While a lot folks look at total yardage to determine offensive output, there is more to it than that. The success of the Florida Gators offense will not correlate solely to total yardage.
However, I believe there are four areas that we can look at throughout the 2017 season to determine the Gators improvement on offense – areas that, I believe and statistics show, correlate to success and will be the only way they have a successful offense in 2017.
Percentage of Plays Resulting in a First Down or a Touchdown
Based on statistics from SportSource Analytics and some plugging of my own numbers, there is a 0.42 correlation between wins and percentage of plays resulting in a first down or touchdown, the highest offensive correlation statistic. In 2016, the Gators had the lowest percentage of any team with at least eight wins, and almost three percentage points lower than the second lowest team (Nebraska) with nine wins. Clemson and Alabama seven and five percentage points higher, respectively. If Florida wants to continue to win, the statistics show, even with great defense, you need to score points and gain first downs.
In 2015, Florida success rate of 31.51% and in 2016, 29.32%, which ranked 105th in the country, and is wholly unsustainable. If Florida is going to be successful on offense in 2017, this number will need to improve.
Points Per Trip Inside the 40-yard line and Red Zone Offense
In 2016, Florida ranked 112th in the country in points per trip inside the 40-yard line (3.91) and 126th in red zone offense, scoring only 71.43% of the time. These numbers are even worse than they should be, because they were drastically helped out by kicker Eddie Pineiro successful kicking 21-of-25 field goals. In 2015, Florida ranked 99th in the country (4.22 points per trip inside the 40) with a kicking duo that only went 7-for-17 on the season.
Again, Florida was the worst team in the country compared to teams with at least eight wins, by nearly seven percentage points in red zone offense (Utah). Florida must improve their ability to score inside the 40-yard line – a small difference could be the difference in a few wins.
Duplicating First Quarter Performance
The idea that Florida had a better offense in the first quarter was proven with statistics. Florida had the 35thranked offense in the first quarter, while it plummeted to 83rd in the 2nd quarter, 78th in the 3rd quarter, and 104th in the 4th quarter. McElwain and Nussmeier has often talked about their scripted first drives (or 20 plays) and obviously had success – now, they will need to duplicate that success.
Sack Rate on Passing Downs
Florida was sacked 10.1% of the time at Austin Appleby or Luke Del Rio stepped back to pass in 2016, which ranked 101st in the country, with Austin Appleby having a much higher sack rate. With Florida improving on the offense line and both Malik Zaire and Feleipe Franks having increased mobility, the issue should improve. However, Florida again was among the bottom tier of teams in sack rate and one of the lowest the eight-plus win category. If Florida cannot improve this rate with a dual-threat quarterback, Florida will not have a successful offense in 2017.
THE FLORIDA GATORS OFFENSE
http://www.gatorcountry.com/feature/where-to-improve-the-florida-gators-offense/
The Florida Gators’ offense over the last seven years has been offensive.
We know that and we don’t need to rehash it.
Florida is now in their third year of Jim McElwain’s and Doug Nussmeier’s offense and while it has shown flashes of what could be, it has never been consistent. Whether injuries (or drug usage), player personnel, or overall uncreative play-calling have hindered their ability to put up points and yardage, Florida fans (and coaches, players, and recruits) are clamoring for this year to be the year for offensive improvement.
While a lot folks look at total yardage to determine offensive output, there is more to it than that. The success of the Florida Gators offense will not correlate solely to total yardage.
However, I believe there are four areas that we can look at throughout the 2017 season to determine the Gators improvement on offense – areas that, I believe and statistics show, correlate to success and will be the only way they have a successful offense in 2017.
Percentage of Plays Resulting in a First Down or a Touchdown
Based on statistics from SportSource Analytics and some plugging of my own numbers, there is a 0.42 correlation between wins and percentage of plays resulting in a first down or touchdown, the highest offensive correlation statistic. In 2016, the Gators had the lowest percentage of any team with at least eight wins, and almost three percentage points lower than the second lowest team (Nebraska) with nine wins. Clemson and Alabama seven and five percentage points higher, respectively. If Florida wants to continue to win, the statistics show, even with great defense, you need to score points and gain first downs.
In 2015, Florida success rate of 31.51% and in 2016, 29.32%, which ranked 105th in the country, and is wholly unsustainable. If Florida is going to be successful on offense in 2017, this number will need to improve.
Points Per Trip Inside the 40-yard line and Red Zone Offense
In 2016, Florida ranked 112th in the country in points per trip inside the 40-yard line (3.91) and 126th in red zone offense, scoring only 71.43% of the time. These numbers are even worse than they should be, because they were drastically helped out by kicker Eddie Pineiro successful kicking 21-of-25 field goals. In 2015, Florida ranked 99th in the country (4.22 points per trip inside the 40) with a kicking duo that only went 7-for-17 on the season.
Again, Florida was the worst team in the country compared to teams with at least eight wins, by nearly seven percentage points in red zone offense (Utah). Florida must improve their ability to score inside the 40-yard line – a small difference could be the difference in a few wins.
Duplicating First Quarter Performance
The idea that Florida had a better offense in the first quarter was proven with statistics. Florida had the 35thranked offense in the first quarter, while it plummeted to 83rd in the 2nd quarter, 78th in the 3rd quarter, and 104th in the 4th quarter. McElwain and Nussmeier has often talked about their scripted first drives (or 20 plays) and obviously had success – now, they will need to duplicate that success.
Sack Rate on Passing Downs
Florida was sacked 10.1% of the time at Austin Appleby or Luke Del Rio stepped back to pass in 2016, which ranked 101st in the country, with Austin Appleby having a much higher sack rate. With Florida improving on the offense line and both Malik Zaire and Feleipe Franks having increased mobility, the issue should improve. However, Florida again was among the bottom tier of teams in sack rate and one of the lowest the eight-plus win category. If Florida cannot improve this rate with a dual-threat quarterback, Florida will not have a successful offense in 2017.
