Why Trump Lost

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Gatoravatara, Feb 2, 2016.

  1. Gatoravatara

    Gatoravatara Protaganista

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    • Above all, Mr. Trump lacked a true get-out-the-vote operation in Iowa. Indeed, he never seemed fully committed to the state, visiting only sporadically and very rarely engaging in the type of intimate retail campaigning that is typically rewarded here. An infrequent churchgoer, he scarcely tried to win over the many Christian conservatives here, and occasionally stumbled when he did: At a nondenominational church service on Sunday, when the communion plate was passed around with wafers and wine, he reached for his wallet.

      “It was apparent to me that Trump created a large enough pool of people to win the caucus, but his campaign failed to get them out to vote,” said Roger Stone, a longtime adviser who helped set up Mr. Trump’s campaign but parted ways with it last summer.
    • Mr. Trump did not run television ads until much later than his opponents. And while his rivals and other detractors had generally shied away from attacking him with negative advertising, he turned out to be susceptible to it: Ads by Mr. Cruz and two outside groups that showed Mr. Trump stating his support for abortion rights in 1999 inflicted significant damage. And without a network of trusted local surrogates that a stronger Iowa operation might have assembled, Mr. Trump had few character witnesses to speak up for him outside his own family.

      Perhaps his costliest, and certainly his most memorable, error was skipping the final Republican debate, hosted by Fox News in Des Moines the Wednesday before the caucuses. He assured audiences that he had been wise to withdraw, and some analysts praised his instinct for avoiding the line of fire as a kind of genius.
     
  2. pilot-in-fla

    pilot-in-fla Deplorable
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    The New York Times is almost the last place I'd look for analysis of the Republican race. Their objective is, quite simply, to sabotage the Republicans to make a Democratic victory easier.
     
  3. oxrageous

    oxrageous American Hero
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    I don't think Trump skipping that last debate had one iota to do with him not winning.
     
  4. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    Cruz was the best organized of the all the candidates and had the strongest ground force. And it's Iowa, which played to his strengths. He'll need to show better in NH than the polls have indicated so far to legitimize the momentum.
     
  5. pilot-in-fla

    pilot-in-fla Deplorable
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    Trust the liberal media to consider it an error to do anything to challenge the media.
     
  6. oxrageous

    oxrageous American Hero
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    Yeah, no one expects Cruz to have even a remote chance in New Hampshire. It's going to be interesting. I think it's possible that the rise of Rubio will hurt Trump more than Cruz.
     
  7. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    Trump's pull is an odd mix that only now are we beginning to understand. I agree with the Times' assertion that he needs a stronger ground presence, that he can't simply rely on the Trump name and message, and esp with Cruz tapping the conservative base. As I see it, you can argue the Rubio effect two ways: He takes from Trump those people who don't trust Trump's views as conservative enough and he takes from Cruz those who think he's a loose cannon and a snake oil salesman, which is why Ted hammers him on the Gang of Eight. He views it as Rubio's soft underbelly. I think Rubio takes from both Trump and Cruz in terms of likability, which can't be dismissed as unimportant.
     
  8. oxrageous

    oxrageous American Hero
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    Rubio was a total fool on that Gang of Eight thing, especially if he had Presidential aspirations. What was he thinking?
     
  9. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    The Hispanic vote, for one. Just a hunch.
     
  10. oxrageous

    oxrageous American Hero
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    There isn't one. Illegals can't vote (yet).
     
  11. Captain Sasquatch

    Captain Sasquatch Mr. SQ, the Sashole
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    Rubio almost beating Trump is a much bigger deal than Cruz winning.
     
  12. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    Obviously. The comment was meant to infer his connection with Hispanics and compassion for seeking a solution beyond deportation. That potentially positions himself well with Hispanics, although many of the legal and hardworking Hispanics could take it just the opposite. It definitely amounted to a gamble by Rubio.
     
  13. '78

    '78 Dazed and Confused
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    And Rubio's just as shifty as the rest of them. He's been running from the amnesty issue during recent debates as acknowledgment that it potentially hurts him. That's why Ted, who's very shrewd, keeps the subject front and center.
     
  14. SGG

    SGG Deplorable to the core
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    Rubio is the only "establishment" golden boy who stands a chance against the other two. I honestly think the RNC were banking on it being a two man race between Jeb and Rubio, and when Cruz and Trump started getting all the attention, it freaked them out.

    After Bush gets his ass handed to him in NH, he and Christie will drop out and endorse Rubio or Cruz.
     
  15. Detroitgator

    Detroitgator General Factotum
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    Going back to the 1976 R primary, Iowa has picked correctly only ONCE... GWB in 2000.
     
  16. oxrageous

    oxrageous American Hero
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    Rubio isn't a typical establishment golden boy at all - he's far more conservative than they'd like. If it wasn't for the Gang of Eight thing he'd be considered nearly as conservative as Cruz.

    I can remember desperately hoping Romney would pick Rubio as his running mate in 2012.
     
  17. SGG

    SGG Deplorable to the core
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    Maybe typical was a poor choice of words.

    He's their last hope, let's say it that way.
     
  18. oxrageous

    oxrageous American Hero
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    If you're saying that he's their last hope at anyone but Trump and Cruz, that's true. But believe me, they don't care much for him either. They would LOVE a Jeb or Kasich.

    They also think they can control Rubio and push him around. They know they won't be able to do that with Trump or Cruz.
     
  19. WillGetIn

    WillGetIn Stalker
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    Personally, I think it boils down to the fact that people like to talk skit, but when it comes down to it, people chicken out.

    People like to say they are fed up, that they want things to change, but when it comes down to actually writing the name down, touching the name to choose, they chicken skit out and go with the norm....
     
  20. aka

    aka I Deliver
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    I'd have to agree, Ox, Rubio's record is more conservative than the establishment wants. And he was correct in the last debate, that there can be no comprehensive immigration reform without securing the border. It's just talk til we do that.
     

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