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Florida-Georgia preview: Why the Gators will win big
Florida-Georgia preview: Why the Gators will win big - Read and Reaction
For the first time since 2008, Florida and Georgia come into the Cocktail Party both ranked in the top-10. This game doesn’t just have SEC East implications or SEC implications, but could potentially have national implications.
The winner likely ends up in the AP top-5 when the polls come out Sunday. At that point, it will be difficult to keep either out of the playoff if they keep winning, especially if Kentucky slips up once more (in Florida’s case).
So that’s what’s on the line on Saturday. Bragging rights between bitter rivals. A line in the sand in what will likely be fierce recruiting battles for years to come. And an inside track at a date with Alabama in Atlanta.
So who will pull it out on Saturday?
Statistical Profiles
If you just look at the surface numbers, Georgia looks like they will win this game.
Comparison of Florida and Georgia offensive performances. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The Bulldogs have the advantage on offense versus Florida. While the Gators offense has been very good, Georgia’s offense has been elite. Of course, there is a caveat here.
The Gators have played teams with an average defensive rank of 58.5 in yards per play allowed compared to 71.8 for Georgia. The best three defensive teams Florida has played are Mississippi State (10th in yards per play allowed), Kentucky (14th) and LSU (30th).
Conversely, the best three defenses Georgia has faced are LSU (30th), South Carolina (57th) and Middle Tennessee State (58th). With such a disparity between the schedules, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Florida ranks slightly worse than Georgia.
Indeed, the chart below bears this out. Georgia clearly appears to have a higher top gear with two games where the Bulldogs averaged over 8 yards per play.
Florida and Georgia’s offensive performance versus defensive quality. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Florida has been much more consistent with a relationship between the quality of defense faced and the effectiveness of its offense related almost linearly.
Georgia’s two outliers were against Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee State. Clearly the Bulldogs are significantly more talented than both teams. Once they played teams of closer talent (LSU, South Carolina), Georgia fell right back onto the same line as Florida, indicating that these offenses are essentially equivalent.
Additionally, I went into great detail about Jake Fromm earlier in the week. In that piece, I mentioned that Fromm has played significantly worse away from Athens. The interesting thing is that Feleipe Franks has played way better away from Gainesville.
Performance of Feleipe Franks and Jake Fromm away from home in 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Indeed, Franks has averaged almost the exact same yards per attempt on the road compared to Fromm and has not been sacked as often. By YAR, Fromm has been better (because he has thrown more and run less than Franks) but Franks has had a slightly higher QB rating. Both QBs have thrown five TDs on the road but Franks only has two INTs versus four for Fromm.
This doesn’t suggest that Franks is better than Fromm. But it does suggest that to say that Georgia has a significant advantage at QB in this particular game is a stretch. It seems that way because of the egg Florida laid against Georgia last year exacerbates what we think of each QB. But clearly Franks in 2018 is not the same player as Franks in 2017.
On the defensive side of the ball, these teams are just about equivalent as well.
Comparison of Florida and Georgia defensive performances. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Both defenses are ranked similarly overall in yards per play. Georgia is better against the pass and Florida is better against the run.
Neither team has played fantastic offenses. The best offense Georgia played against was Missouri and the best offense Florida played against was Mississippi State. Both defenses will be tested Saturday by the best opposing unit they’ve played thus far.
One place where Florida does have a major advantage on defense is the defensive line. Defensive ends Jachai Polite and Jabari Zuniga and linebacker Vosean Joseph have combined for 24.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. Georgia – as a team – only has 28 tackles for loss and 9 sacks.
Measure of defensive explosiveness of the Florida and Georgia defenses. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
That means that on a per-play basis, Florida’s defense is more explosive. That’s why the Gators hold the advantage in defensive turnovers versus Georgia by an 18 to 9. Additionally, that lack of explosiveness also likely explains why Georgia’s defense has struggled against the run.
(more at the link)
Florida-Georgia preview: Why the Gators will win big - Read and Reaction
For the first time since 2008, Florida and Georgia come into the Cocktail Party both ranked in the top-10. This game doesn’t just have SEC East implications or SEC implications, but could potentially have national implications.
The winner likely ends up in the AP top-5 when the polls come out Sunday. At that point, it will be difficult to keep either out of the playoff if they keep winning, especially if Kentucky slips up once more (in Florida’s case).
So that’s what’s on the line on Saturday. Bragging rights between bitter rivals. A line in the sand in what will likely be fierce recruiting battles for years to come. And an inside track at a date with Alabama in Atlanta.
So who will pull it out on Saturday?
Statistical Profiles
If you just look at the surface numbers, Georgia looks like they will win this game.
Comparison of Florida and Georgia offensive performances. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The Bulldogs have the advantage on offense versus Florida. While the Gators offense has been very good, Georgia’s offense has been elite. Of course, there is a caveat here.
The Gators have played teams with an average defensive rank of 58.5 in yards per play allowed compared to 71.8 for Georgia. The best three defensive teams Florida has played are Mississippi State (10th in yards per play allowed), Kentucky (14th) and LSU (30th).
Conversely, the best three defenses Georgia has faced are LSU (30th), South Carolina (57th) and Middle Tennessee State (58th). With such a disparity between the schedules, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Florida ranks slightly worse than Georgia.
Indeed, the chart below bears this out. Georgia clearly appears to have a higher top gear with two games where the Bulldogs averaged over 8 yards per play.
Florida and Georgia’s offensive performance versus defensive quality. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Florida has been much more consistent with a relationship between the quality of defense faced and the effectiveness of its offense related almost linearly.
Georgia’s two outliers were against Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee State. Clearly the Bulldogs are significantly more talented than both teams. Once they played teams of closer talent (LSU, South Carolina), Georgia fell right back onto the same line as Florida, indicating that these offenses are essentially equivalent.
Additionally, I went into great detail about Jake Fromm earlier in the week. In that piece, I mentioned that Fromm has played significantly worse away from Athens. The interesting thing is that Feleipe Franks has played way better away from Gainesville.
Performance of Feleipe Franks and Jake Fromm away from home in 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Indeed, Franks has averaged almost the exact same yards per attempt on the road compared to Fromm and has not been sacked as often. By YAR, Fromm has been better (because he has thrown more and run less than Franks) but Franks has had a slightly higher QB rating. Both QBs have thrown five TDs on the road but Franks only has two INTs versus four for Fromm.
This doesn’t suggest that Franks is better than Fromm. But it does suggest that to say that Georgia has a significant advantage at QB in this particular game is a stretch. It seems that way because of the egg Florida laid against Georgia last year exacerbates what we think of each QB. But clearly Franks in 2018 is not the same player as Franks in 2017.
On the defensive side of the ball, these teams are just about equivalent as well.
Comparison of Florida and Georgia defensive performances. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Both defenses are ranked similarly overall in yards per play. Georgia is better against the pass and Florida is better against the run.
Neither team has played fantastic offenses. The best offense Georgia played against was Missouri and the best offense Florida played against was Mississippi State. Both defenses will be tested Saturday by the best opposing unit they’ve played thus far.
One place where Florida does have a major advantage on defense is the defensive line. Defensive ends Jachai Polite and Jabari Zuniga and linebacker Vosean Joseph have combined for 24.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. Georgia – as a team – only has 28 tackles for loss and 9 sacks.
Measure of defensive explosiveness of the Florida and Georgia defenses. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
That means that on a per-play basis, Florida’s defense is more explosive. That’s why the Gators hold the advantage in defensive turnovers versus Georgia by an 18 to 9. Additionally, that lack of explosiveness also likely explains why Georgia’s defense has struggled against the run.
(more at the link)
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