- Jun 12, 2014
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Not sure about S.Florida but C.Florida just had it biggest 2 months EVER in the 500k-2.5m range for sales. Just looked at the online services and the Casa Del Lago has went up 54k in the last 30 days.....my 2 little shoebox rentals are each up over 10k in the last 30 days....I saw a report about all the northerners moving to Florida. It said there was an FAU study and it found that south Florida real estate was 20% over priced. I was just in Florida for 10 days, everyone I talked to said they couldn't believe what was going on w/ real estate in Florida and they expect a dip soon - possibly after the virus protections expire (Nov, Dec, Jan?). I'm sitting on a ton of cash, ready to pounce when it happens!!
I saw a report about all the northerners moving to Florida. It said there was an FAU study and it found that south Florida real estate was 20% over priced. I was just in Florida for 10 days, everyone I talked to said they couldn't believe what was going on w/ real estate in Florida and they expect a dip soon - possibly after the virus protections expire (Nov, Dec, Jan?). I'm sitting on a ton of cash, ready to pounce when it happens!!
The $600 a week thingy ended over a month ago and unemployment mysteriously fell to 8.4 from 10.4 the month before.....8.4 was about the average during Obama's reign of terror(2008-2014)so I think it's pretty safe to say there won't be nearly the investment buying opportunities out there for a while unless Weekend at Bernies wins the election.
Mortgages in Forbearance Down From Peak
Latest Housing Market Stats
I'm sure numbers get skewed depending on how they're plugged in....I am more concerned with "under employment" in the long run and it's overall effect. In reality one of the factors in the slow recovery of 2008-2014 was that so many 50-100k annual wage earners that got laid off/eliminated DID get new jobs....ones that were paying 10.50 per hour...this time around it is mostly the 10.50 hourly worker who seems to be taking the biggest hit along with some small cash flow type business owners. A lot in those categories are not your typical home owner(some are) so I believe we will have a housing fall off eventually it won't be nearly to the effect of 2008-2014.....Not arguing the numbers Crete, but having done this my whole life I learned early on that never believe any gov't numbers. With that said, I too wondered how the rate could drop so much with the nonfarm payroll number being exactly on the estimates and no revisions to the prior 2 months. 350K were temporary census workers but a job is a job. but I did see under the hood that 2 million more people were getting some help vs. last month. The actual unemployment rate is derived from the "household survey" which I think 3 million got jobs and 2 million lost jobs. Also the Participation rate increased a smidge so I would have thought that might add a smidge the the unemployment rate. But it is still a paltry 62% or so. anyway if you ever wanted a snooze, read how the BLS calculates this monthly number and the way they use this birth/death model as part of the calculation and you will realize it is all horseshyt. But for the Papers 8.4% is 8.4%
I'm sure numbers get skewed depending on how they're plugged in....I am more concerned with "under employment" in the long run and it's overall effect. In reality one of the factors in the slow recovery of 2008-2014 was that so many 50-100k annual wage earners that got laid off/eliminated DID get new jobs....ones that were paying 10.50 per hour...this time around it is mostly the 10.50 hourly worker who seems to be taking the biggest hit along with some small cash flow type business owners. A lot in those categories are not your typical home owner(some are) so I believe we will have a housing fall off eventually it won't be nearly to the effect of 2008-2014.....
That same thought crosses my mind this morning. If the states that are just f vcking peoples lives up were open I bet the rate would probably drop into the mid 6's....Now once you get to that rate cut all the assistance and I bet it goes to about 5 or lower.Re: the unemployment rate - if NJ, NY, and California would get their sh*t together the unemployment rate would fall even further (probably under 7.5%). BUT, I don't think the salaries pre-China Virus are going to be equal.
That same thought crosses my mind this morning. If the states that are just f vcking peoples lives up were open I bet the rate would probably drop into the mid 6's....Now once you get to that rate cut all the assistance and I bet it goes to about 5 or lower.
Once you get below 5% you are dealing some real lazy sacks o sh!t that are professional job dodgers and people who get moved from short term disability to permanent because they got addicted to pain meds after dislocating their thumb throwing boxes at a warehouse somewhere....we'll never get them back to work.
It's no secret at least with me that the "true" unemployment rate is always about 2-3 percent higher than what the gov shows us.....but alot of that shifting started in 2008.....and has continued since then and alot of that has to do with the "shift" in disability.Here Crete, this kind of sums up what I have been trying to say. I will post it here since you mentioned employment in your post. Not saying it is correct but it does highlight those who could work, are not working or looking for work, thus not counted as unemployed.
Why the real unemployment rate is likely over 11%
The official unemployment rate fell to 8.4% in August as businesses continued emerging from broad shutdowns imposed early in the coronavirus pandemic, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
That’s the lowest rate since unemployment exploded in April, to levels unseen since the Great Depression. It would also mean the official rate dipped below the peak seen during the country’s last downturn, known as the Great Recession.
But the true rate in August is likely much higher than the official figure — perhaps even exceeding 11%, according to labor economists.
The unemployment rate is a measure of joblessness in the country and is a rough barometer of financial hardship.
A rate above 11% would mean the country remains in the throes of the worst period of joblessness in post-World War II history. It would mean roughly 1 in 9 people who want a job and are able to work can’t find employment.
Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the highest post-war unemployment rate in the U.S.was 10.8%, set in 1982.
The August unemployment figure is also significant since it’s the first snapshot of joblessness from the BLS since a $600 weekly federal supplement to unemployment benefits lapsed at the end of July.
Millions of workers haven’t been getting any federal assistance for more than a month, leaving them with just their state-allotted aid, which generally amounts to about half of lost wages. Workers in some states typically get less, however.
A federal Lost Wages Assistance program created in early August by President Trump’s executive directive adds an extra $300 a week for roughly five weeks, but workers in most states haven’t yet begun receiving that subsidy. And thousands aren’t eligible to get it at all.
11.1% unemployment rate
There are a few reasons the true unemployment rate for August is likely higher than the official 8.4%.
For one, there’s been an ongoing data-collection issue since early in the pandemic regarding furloughed workers.
The BLS determines the unemployment rate based on a survey of American households. People conducting the survey have sometimes misclassified workers as being employed but absent from work instead of unemployed on temporary layoff, according to the Bureau.
Being absent from work — a category that includes people on vacation or on sick leave, for example — doesn’t boost the unemployment rate. A temporary layoff, or furlough, however, does increase it.
The unemployment rate would have been about 0.7 percentage points higher than reported in August — or about 9.1% — if this misclassification error hadn’t occurred, according to the Bureau.
The true figure would have been larger still when accounting for people who dropped out of the labor force, economists said.
Such individuals may have been discouraged from looking for work due to the lackluster state of the job market, or may not have been able to look for work due to health concerns or childcare duties, for example.
This is important because the federal government doesn’t count people as being unemployed if they’re not in the labor force. To be counted as in the labor force, people must be available to work and actively looking for a job.
“One of the things many people seem to have missed is, the unemployment rate doesn’t count people who aren’t looking for work,” said Michael Farren, an economist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
There were about 164.5 million people in the labor force in February, before state governments shut down broad sectors of the U.S. economy. That figure fell by about 8 million, to 156.5 million people, in April.
“You didn’t have 8 million people instantly decide, ‘I’m going to retire instead of deal with this pandemic,’” Farren said. “That might have accounted for a small subset of that number, but most of that is people permanently laid off.”
The size of the labor force has since recovered to 160.8 million in August — still about 3.7 million people less than the pre-pandemic figure.
If these people were counted as unemployed, the official unemployment rate would be 11.1%, Farren said.
That analysis is “static,” meaning it doesn’t account for other factors that may have influenced the size of the labor force, like high school graduates now looking for a job. That sort of “dynamic” analysis would likely raise the 11.1% figure a few additional tenths of a percentage point, Farren said.
@Bushmaster
I'm just getting into the rental game and wanted to know what you thought about long term financing vs paying off a house. I have 2 SFHs that I purchased through foreclosure, each for a little less than $50k. I've put $25k into the first one, a 3 bedroom 1 bath 1100 sqft with 5 acres that rents out for $900/month and about $5k into the second one which is a 1700 sqft 3 bedroom 2 bath that I get $1000/month. I think I can get a little more per month in rent, these were just first guesses on the local market, they were easy to rent so will go up on terms next time.
I'm curious if it makes sense to pay off the homes as quick as possible which would maximize the monthly cash flow or continue to let the renters pay the mortgage with a smaller cash flow and invest in more houses. I am 51 years old and don't want alot of debt going into retirement, even if that debt is being paid for by tenants. But I want to acquire as many good properties as possible too.
Whats the right play?
I wrestle with this almost everyday with my 2 rentals. If the rest of your retirement savings are on track I'd think about keeping the mortgages since you get to use the interest as a write off and maybe even acquiring more if the market is reasonable....right now in Florida it is not. Houses just reached an all time high last month.I'm curious if it makes sense to pay off the homes as quick as possible which would maximize the monthly cash flow or continue to let the renters pay the mortgage with a smaller cash flow and invest in more houses. I am 51 years old and don't want alot of debt going into retirement, even if that debt is being paid for by tenants. But I want to acquire as many good properties as possible too.
I was born and raised in Orlando, but in spite of piving in Cullman for the past 30 years I dont really know many people here. I commute to work in Madison, Alabama....have always been a commuter so I know more people outside of Cullman than in except for family.My company Master Gunner was from Cullman Alabama. Last name was Denson.