I'm getting a bad feeling about the BFR test series. I note, you mentioned they might lose 1 or 2 during test series, I hope the "cratering" doesn't have unforeseen consequences.
Elon has Brass Nuts!
They'll crater over water. RUD (Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly) is not uncommon in rocket development. Thus the prohibition on launching over land. Worst case scenario is it happens on the pad because you destroy the pad. And SpaceX can build a rocket faster than a new pad.
When a Falcon 9 booster lands it aims for water. If everything is going perfectly it will, at the last possible second, aim for the pad. The first few times they didn't even try to land the Falcon 9 on a pad, they just put it down in the water. And there have been barge landing failures(in the beginning) where the booster just hit the water instead of destroying the barge.
StarShip will be trying a totally new method of reentry. It will fall belly first. The "fins" that you see on the StarShip are not for aerodynamics. They act as air brakes that keep StarShip in the belly down attitude during descent. At the last instant it will flip vertical and fire the engines to land. Being that this has never been done before it won't be surprising to not work the first time. SN8 will be testing this maneuver this month when it launches to an altitude of about 20 miles.They hope it will work the first time but are planning for it to not.
After SN8 the next ship (SN9) will have a heat shield and launch to a high enough altitude to test the heat shield.. Again this is a totally new type of heat shield so it might not work the first time. There are currently six StarShips under construction at Boca Chica so they have plenty in case they lose one. StarShips are really nothing more than stainless steel. Once they figure out how to weld them properly they get built pretty fast.
The engines are the expense and are complicated to build. Elon has said that engine production is one of the harder things they have to do.
A SuperHeavy is just a larger StarShip. They will have 5-10 StarShip launches under their belt before they try a SuperHeavy. So RUD on the pad isn't likely. However, when they stack it with a StarShip and try to go suborbital then orbital they may lose one. Musk has said it's 50/50.
TL : DR My concern isn't explosions it's Raptor production. They've built at least 39 this year but some have gone boom and some no doubt are sub optimal. If they lose a complete SH/SS they lose 30+ engines.