Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

FireFoley

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Well, the ETFs I bought on Tuesday are up anywhere between 5.46% and 5.99%... now I have the weekly dilemma: dump going into the close, or hold over the weekend and wonder what madness will ensue over those 60 hours? :lol:

Well as you are aware. Prez Tweeter has upped the # for his Stimulate Me Money to 1.8 Trillion. That is only 400 Billion below what the Dums are agreeable to, which for all intents and purposes is petty cash at this point. So the market rallied, the 10 yr. bumped up against 80 basis points and now the market has settled back? So the consensus has been all along that a Stimulate Me bill will get done, and today was about as close as it has gotten since Prez Tweeter just said the other day NO to a complete package, but targeted help only. Today he reverses courses, goes all in on a total package, and the market barely lifted? Considering all the pundits have said that a Stimulate Me deal was not priced into the market, I would almost beg to differ. Prez Tweeter throws in the towel b/c he knows he is in trouble election wise, and the market basically yawns?

FWIW, I would never give advice but taking profits never broke anyone, taking some profits allows for easier sleep and many a player who collected a lot of singles and doubles ended up in the Hall of Fame also :)
 

Detroitgator

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Well as you are aware. Prez Tweeter has upped the # for his Stimulate Me Money to 1.8 Trillion. That is only 400 Billion below what the Dums are agreeable to, which for all intents and purposes is petty cash at this point. So the market rallied, the 10 yr. bumped up against 80 basis points and now the market has settled back? So the consensus has been all along that a Stimulate Me bill will get done, and today was about as close as it has gotten since Prez Tweeter just said the other day NO to a complete package, but targeted help only. Today he reverses courses, goes all in on a total package, and the market barely lifted? Considering all the pundits have said that a Stimulate Me deal was not priced into the market, I would almost beg to differ. Prez Tweeter throws in the towel b/c he knows he is in trouble election wise, and the market basically yawns?

FWIW, I would never give advice but taking profits never broke anyone, taking some profits allows for easier sleep and many a player who collected a lot of singles and doubles ended up in the Hall of Fame also :)
i wish people would stop saying he "reversed course." what he did was negotiations 101, and it's working
 

FireFoley

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i wish people would stop saying he "reversed course." what he did was negotiations 101, and it's working


I hope you are correct. We can agree to disagree on whether he is negotiating or he is in a "desperate times calls for desperate measures". If Tweeter can pull out the election, then it will end up saving us a lot of money initially. If not, then it will not matter b/c whatever they do now will be just be a small escrow payment for what is to come.
 

Detroitgator

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I hope you are correct. We can agree to disagree on whether he is negotiating or he is in a "desperate times calls for desperate measures". If Tweeter can pull out the election, then it will end up saving us a lot of money initially. If not, then it will not matter b/c whatever they do now will be just be a small escrow payment for what is to come.
From "The Art of the Deal"....

"You walk away from stalled talks, get in your car and drive off, leaving the other side stunned and, hopefully, softened up for compromise. Then you restart negotiations with each side a little more flexible, and — in this case the crucial second part of the strategy — the deal broken up into bite-sized, and thus more easily doable, parts."
Let's review:
  • Nancy started at $3.4T with HEROES Act. Trump wanted $1.0T targeted deal. No deal.
  • She just passed a "compromise" bill for $2.2T. No deal, Trump walks away, then dangles carrot of $1.8T.
  • End deal likely somewhere between $1.8-$2.0T.
  • Both sides claim disappointment and victory.
  • Nancy will try to slow Trump getting $1200 checks out before the election.
  • Stock markets win.
  • America loses, again.
 

Detroitgator

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Update:
  • Still going off two scenarios:
    • "Skinny/shallow", where we already bottomed on the pullback at 3236 and will keep rising, or.
    • "Moderate" where we are in a bounce, then will pull back to 3050-3000 level.
  • Bullish indicators:
    • MACD crossover on SP500 after that low of 3236 (but sometimes false signal).
    • R2000 has taken out daily highs of September.
    • Dow Transports is moving higher in its daily upward trend channel (no longer at bottom edge of it, it's back above center channel). On its monthly chart, it has gone above its all time high.
    • Dollar still weak, 10 yr still high in the range they've been maintaining.
  • Bearish indicators:
    • While Dow Transports are going up, it is doing so with "bearish divergence" on the daily and monthly RSI, but this may get negated if it keeps pushing up. We are also "overbought" on the RSI (I use "95, 5" for my RSI settings, so "overbought" means "above 95" on a scale of 0-100).
    • "Dumb Money" level is high/over optimistic. Last time this happened was at the September high.
    • "Commercial Hedgers" have been selling heavily into this rally.
  • Levels to watch:
    • Dow Transports: as long as we remain above the box between 11390 and 11095, bullish.
    • SP500 Rule of 7's current probable targets: #1 = 3488 (already took it out), #2 = 3572 (getting close), and #3 = 3740 (this is our medium term target).
  • So, "Skinny" or "Moderate" scenarios:
    • In BOTH scenarios, we are likely to keep pushing up right now into the 3510 (if Moderate) -3544 (if Skinny) levels.
    • If Skinny:
      • Once we push into that area (up to 3544), we likely get a pullback to around 3440, then start next leg up to 3600+.
      • The support for that pullback needs to hold that 3440 level for bulls to remain in charge.
    • If Moderate:
      • Once we push into that area (up to 3510), we start a bigger pullback, if we break through 3440, then down to 3000-3055 level.
So, for now, I'm holding the positions I bought at the dip last week, but with TIGHT stops. We'll see what happens over the next few trading days, especially if we bounce down off of the resistance of the 3507-3544 box. I'll then be watching that 3443 support level. From there, I'll either get very big long if we bounce up off of it, or very big short if we plunge through it.

UPDATE: as I type this, the SP500 is now in that 3507 to 3544 box of resistance right now, so should be an interesting week.
 

FireFoley

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Bond Markets closed today for Columbus day, so trading desks very light. Old saying of never short a dull market. Looking to short after the "I don;t understand excitement" of the Apple presentation and the potential implosion of the Stimulate Me Money.
 

Detroitgator

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Bond Markets closed today for Columbus day, so trading desks very light. Old saying of never short a dull market. Looking to short after the "I don;t understand excitement" of the Apple presentation and the potential implosion of the Stimulate Me Money.
I did notice yesterday when I was doing my stuff that Apple's chart was a bullish setup.
 

FireFoley

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I did notice yesterday when I was doing my stuff that Apple's chart was a bullish setup.

Agree. Not looking to short Apple per se as it is in over 1000 ETF's, and when people buy those ETF's the fund has to balance each day, but potentially use that as a catalyst for other areas of the market or the market in general
 

Detroitgator

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Agree. Not looking to short Apple per se as it is in over 1000 ETF's, and when people buy those ETF's the fund has to balance each day, but potentially use that as a catalyst for other areas of the market or the market in general
That's exactly why I look at aapl.
 

Concrete Helmet

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Me thinks those YUGE upcoming 3rd quarter numbers are making all the difference....won't need stimulus money cuz errrrbody gonna be working overtime again...
 

Detroitgator

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I'm taking half off the board at the close, tight stops remain on the rest. We've pushed all the way into the box of resistance I mentioned earlier in just today's trading day. I'll see what happens in after hours and at the open and go from there.

EDIT: just dumped my "on close" orders.
 
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FireFoley

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That's exactly why I look at aapl.


You are correct and I understand, but I was not clear in what I meant when I said that about the AAPL show, etc. I understand the thought and you are not wrong, but I view AAPL as more of a staple stock for "most" stock investors, hence the zillion ETF's it is in. It's revenues/growth have been stagnant for years. Sure it can move the market, but I meant that once the event is over, it takes something off the market that some might be watching, regardless of how it reacts. If, and I mean a big IF we do get a significant move down, I can see some of the higher flyer's dropping 20-40%. I don;t see that with an AAPL.

BTW, nice trade from the other day. Nicely done.
 

Detroitgator

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You are correct and I understand, but I was not clear in what I meant when I said that about the AAPL show, etc. I understand the thought and you are not wrong, but I view AAPL as more of a staple stock for "most" stock investors, hence the zillion ETF's it is in. It's revenues/growth have been stagnant for years. Sure it can move the market, but I meant that once the event is over, it takes something off the market that some might be watching, regardless of how it reacts. If, and I mean a big IF we do get a significant move down, I can see some of the higher flyer's dropping 20-40%. I don;t see that with an AAPL.

BTW, nice trade from the other day. Nicely done.
Thanks, I put on some small short positions about 15 minutes ago... totally a gamble. I feel like I shoulda added some oil. If it's down again tomorrow, I probably will. I'm kicking myself from a week ago Sunday because everything then showed silver would pop last week, and it did, but i didn't mess with it. I think it might again, but not going to mess with it for now.
 

Detroitgator

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Update: I think we're in the "Skinny/Shallow" scenario and we are now in the start of the big Wave 3 up. Still watching key support levels, but will drop my small shorts as soon as this pullback reverses, then get in long, and fairly big. And yes.... TWSS.
 

Detroitgator

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Update:
  • I said 3443 was the critical support to watch to help determine if we were in "skinny/shallow" or "moderate" pull back. A close above it would be an indication of "skinny" scenario running higher to the 3700 level, a close below would indicate further dropping to as low as 3050-3000 level.
  • We JUST pierced the 3443 level (3442.94) this morning at the open, but so far, we have bounced from there. It's where we close that's important.
  • Dow Transports still strong, they have not taken the hit.
  • Adv/Decline chart same thing.
  • RSP (equal weighted SP500) same thing.
  • Depending on the close today/tomorrow, we might have bottomed this morning and are making the next big run up.
  • We really want to see this bounce get back to the 3500 level to confirm.
  • If you're a gambler, you could start going long tomorrow depending on what happens today at the close and at the open tomorrow.
  • If you're not a gambler, sit tight for confirmation one way or the other! ;)
 

BMF

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Mostly Dem states. I'm surprised Georgia is on this list? If California & NY reopen, unemployment would likely drop (nationally) to under 7%.

bf8a08d0-0eeb-11eb-9ff7-3ff3c52f5ee9
 

Detroitgator

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Update: I think we may have bottomed this morning, so I've dumped my shorts (pun intended), waiting to push in long and big (pun also intended).
 

Concrete Helmet

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Wait.....the continuing claims though!!!.....and and and the stimulus...…

retail up bigly AND with the major retailors announcing EXTENDED Black Friday plans(give people more time to spend more and they will 9 times out of 10)…..worldwide auto sales up for the first time in a year(including pre china flu) vaccine's for errrrrbody instead of Eggnog this year "winkwink" ….
 

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