Now that were officially the Communist States of America

[Detroitgator]

Where in Arlington?

Not by that Bilbo Baggins place. ;)

 

[BMF]

Not by that Bilbo Baggins place. ;)

 

[Detroitgator]

Why do people always seem to want to go there? I'm like, "Fuk it, I'll go find normal food in Shirlington."

 

[BMF]

Why do people always seem to want to go there? I'm like, "Fuk it, I'll go find normal food in Shirlington."

We live about 1.2 miles from Shirlington - it's a little too far to walk, but it's the closest "nice" dining we have. We go there often (the Thai place is great, probably my favorite Thai I've ever had). But yeah....there's some ghetto dining near this area!

 

[Detroitgator]

We live about 1.2 miles from Shirlington - it's a little too far to walk, but it's the closest "nice" dining we have. We go there often (the Thai place is great, probably my favorite Thai I've ever had). But yeah....there's some ghetto dining near this area!

I've worked with some people in some of the offices across the street from Bilbo Baggins, and ate a lot in Shillington because a friend had his company in the Gateway building.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I guess it pays to know when the bond auctions are taking place...Stock market sitting stagnant for most of the week....I'm hearing retail investors are all in at this point and have nothing left to throw at it...Any opinions from the resident experts.

 

[Detroitgator]

I guess it pays to know when the bond auctions are taking place...Stock market sitting stagnant for most of the week....I'm hearing retail investors are all in at this point and have nothing left to throw at it...Any opinions from the resident experts.

Watch what Joe's stimulus statement does tomorrow... that'll be a good short term indicator, but any debt = more up.

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

We live about 1.2 miles from Shirlington - it's a little too far to walk, but it's the closest "nice" dining we have. We go there often (the Thai place is great, probably my favorite Thai I've ever had). But yeah....there's some ghetto dining near this area!

Carlyle was my favorite in Shirlington. You could even get a house made dog bone to take home. Not sure what they put in it, but my dog would absolutely lose his mind.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Watch what Joe's stimulus statement does tomorrow... that'll be a good short term indicator, but any debt = more up.

It may make for some short term profit grabs but I think any action the new administration takes will meet resistance from the Bernie faction of their party...they already want more than what Biden's been talking about regarding student debt loans and I doubt Biden and his long term donors(lobbyist) want as much of a revolution as AOC and Bernie....still talking fuels short term run ups I just wish I was better at finding them before they get near the top....it's getting to be a daily chore just being an investor and not wanting to be a trader...

 

[Detroitgator]

It may make for some short term profit grabs but I think any action the new administration takes will meet resistance from the Bernie faction of their party...they already want more than what Biden's been talking about regarding student debt loans and I doubt Biden and his long term donors(lobbyist) want as much of a revolution as AOC and Bernie....still talking fuels short term run ups I just wish I was better at finding them before they get near the top....it's getting to be a daily chore just being an investor and not wanting to be a trader...

New jobs number out. "The economy" (i.e., NOT "the market") is an absolute dumpster fire, period. And yet, "the markets" ALL set to open higher.

I am 100000000% with you on "the economy." However, don't make the mistake of thinking that has one iota of anything to do with "the markets" anymore. It simply doesn't. Debt, debt, debt... fuels "the markets," "the economy" does not.

 

[BMF]

New jobs number out. "The economy" (i.e., NOT "the market") is an absolute dumpster fire, period. And yet, "the markets" ALL set to open higher.

I am 100000000% with you on "the economy." However, don't make the mistake of thinking that has one iota of anything to do with "the markets" anymore. It simply doesn't. Debt, debt, debt... fuels "the markets," "the economy" does not.

It's like free money. "Everybody" is making money in this market. The issue is...when will it crash? As others have said, the new administration will do everything they can to keep it propped up so they can say, "see, our policies work!". But we all know there's going to be a day of reckoning. I'm trying to keep enough cash on the side to dive back in after a crash, but I want to also make a little bit while it's running up. There's a fine line, as they say....

 

[FireFoley]

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Debt, debt, debt... fuels "the markets," "the economy" does not.

Remember though we'll be undergoing a corporate tax hike with this new administration....the combination of the stimulus with Trumps current corp. tax is what gave our stock market(S&P500 and Tech/Growth) the huge rebound.....the big boys of the market are going to have to adjust and if the current trend of the short term yield keeps inching up Tech will have a slow down IMO...

Don't get me wrong there will be big uptrends along the way fueled by stimulus but I doubt we see what happened from April to September for the next 10 years or so...

 

[no1g8r]

It's like free money. "Everybody" is making money in this market. The issue is...when will it crash? As others have said, the new administration will do everything they can to keep it propped up so they can say, "see, our policies work!". But we all know there's going to be a day of reckoning. I'm trying to keep enough cash on the side to dive back in after a crash, but I want to also make a little bit while it's running up. There's a fine line, as they say....

What if it’s not the market that will crash first, but rather the dollar hyperinflating into oblivion?

 

[BMF]

What if it’s not the market that will crash first, but rather the dollar hyperinflating into oblivion?

I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't answer that. The dollar is already falling behind the Euro (it's at 1.21, last time I went to Europe (2015) it was $1.05).

 

[Detroitgator]

Remember though we'll be undergoing a corporate tax hike with this new administration....the combination of the stimulus with Trumps current corp. tax is what gave our stock market(S&P500 and Tech/Growth) the huge rebound.....the big boys of the market are going to have to adjust and if the current trend of the short term yield keeps inching up Tech will have a slow down IMO...

Don't get me wrong there will be big uptrends along the way fueled by stimulus but I doubt we see what happened from April to September for the next 10 years or so...

Market did just fine with Obama's tax increases, which kind of proves the point, it's about debt, not the economy. The tax increases are just to kill off even more of the middle class and small business, get it right! ;)

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Good stuff...the look on the millennial host face is priceless when this guy starts going off on the china flu
You thought 2020 was bad? 2021 will be ‘dreadful’, 'unprecedented' – Gerald Celente - YouTube

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

Sell RE portfolio before March crash and hope to buy back in in 2 years

Why would you want to pay off anything financed with a low, fixed, interest rate? Actually, if you know you are going to have income to cover that debt, you should actually be trying to lock in as much as you can because you can pay off your principal amount/loan with inflated dollars.

Detroit's point is a great one... Pull out as much as you can at low fixed rates and invest it at a higher return (it needs to beat the loan interest after taxes). You only need a 3-5% return depending on the tax rate for the investment and the mortgage rate.

But where do you get a low risk 3-5% return right now? Equities on average are now very expensive relative to earnings. If you bought an index fund back in the late 90s it would have taken decades to get to a 5% annualized return.

Rates on bonds are dismal and if interest rates do go up they'll lose their value.

Real estate is also expensive when you look at price to rent ratios. Not quite as expensive as equities, but still expensive. If you own rental property that is financed, your return on equity erodes as you pay off the loan. Even if you refinance to take money out, your return shrinks as price to rent increases. So it might make sense to sell now.


Of course even if equities, bonds and real estate don't look particularly attractive right now on average as asset classes, there are certainly opportunities within each class to make money if you are comfortable with the risk.

But what are those opportunities? I think that's what concrete is really asking in this thread. I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on that as well.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Detroit's point is a great one... Pull out as much as you can at low fixed rates and invest it at a higher return (it needs to beat the loan interest after taxes). You only need a 3-5% return depending on the tax rate for the investment and the mortgage rate.

But where do you get a low risk 3-5% return right now? Equities on average are now very expensive relative to earnings. If you bought an index fund back in the late 90s it would have taken decades to get to a 5% annualized return.

Rates on bonds are dismal and if interest rates do go up they'll lose their value.

Real estate is also expensive when you look at price to rent ratios. Not quite as expensive as equities, but still expensive. If you own rental property that is financed, your return on equity erodes as you pay off the loan. Even if you refinance to take money out, your return shrinks as price to rent increases. So it might make sense to sell now.


Of course even if equities, bonds and real estate don't look particularly attractive right now on average as asset classes, there are certainly opportunities within each class to make money if you are comfortable with the risk.

But what are those opportunities? I think that's what concrete is really asking in this thread. I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on that as well.

Great thoughts Bernie. I guess we'll have to see how Biden's tax plan really rolls out and factor that into the equation as well since capital gains would apply to selling or cashing out assets. It could come down to new tax laws also regarding write offs and I do enjoy having my tenants pay for what I write off every year(taxes and interest)

At 56 yo I'm trying to look ahead and figure out the best route to future streams of income and with a beaten down bond market it seems RE and and stocks(dividend producing)are the logical path forward for a guy without a pension and late start investing in equities...

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Anyone see what gold did today...and silver? Gots me some mo....