Mortgage rates

Concrete Helmet

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LOL and out here our biggest lender just announced they are going to have bridge loans available. :lol:
How are things going out there in market? Still tight in inventory? I know Vegas has gotten hit hard since all of this BS started.
 

NVGator

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How are things going out there in market? Still tight in inventory? I know Vegas has gotten hit hard since all of this BS started.
It's nuts. Absolutely no inventory driving properties through the roof. Everything under $600k has multiple offers in the first 3 days. New build can't build fast enough. We're back to the days of lotteries for the next releases. People camping out in front of sales offices to put name on lists. It's crazy.
 

BMF

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It's nuts. Absolutely no inventory driving properties through the roof. Everything under $600k has multiple offers in the first 3 days. New build can't build fast enough. We're back to the days of lotteries for the next releases. People camping out in front of sales offices to put name on lists. It's crazy.

Are you in Reno? That market has blown up. I love Reno (and Lake Tahoe). So many Bay area nuts moving out there. Still a great area to live, but it's changed quite a bit since I first started going out there in the late 90's.
 

NVGator

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Are you in Reno? That market has blown up. I love Reno (and Lake Tahoe). So many Bay area nuts moving out there. Still a great area to live, but it's changed quite a bit since I first started going out there in the late 90's.
Yes, in Reno. It’s nuts here. So much growth and so many big name business moving here. In addition to Cal-Ex. But you are right. The Fuchers keep voting Dem. our median home price is $475,000. We have 1.1 months of supply at any price points.
 

alcoholica

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Start researching the market now but I wouldn't touch anything until August or later. Maybe you can get a short term lease(6-12months) when you move there?
Summer should hold. It almost always does. May not close as strong as other summers though.

the issue is going to be the bottlenecks on evictions and foreclosures. I had originally hoped that I’d be buying back in by December or earlier. Then I amended to Feb or so. Now I’m wondering if it may not be until Fall of 2022. Without FC’s you’re going to have an artificial supply floor. But you really need the FC’s, before the short sales will become active. That’s when we can start seeing some downward pressure.

Edit: bad phrasing. Artificial supply of buyers, and thus buyer demand.
 
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NVGator

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Haven't updated this in a while because I had computer issues and lost a TON of files. Recreated this today.


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FireFoley

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@BMF, perhaps we might be sidelined a little longer regardless of these move up in rates. Senile Sid just gave mortgage forbearance to many for another 6 months..
 

BMF

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@BMF, perhaps we might be sidelined a little longer regardless of these move up in rates. Senile Sid just gave mortgage forbearance to many for another 6 months..

This is going to be a disaster once the protections end. Most of these dumbasses are tacking these payments onto the back end of their loans. Yes, it's going to delay the inevitable...but I'm willing to be patient. We're still 2 to 4 months away from actually looking for something - as I mentioned earlier, we're thinking about buying in a less desirable area (than we originally wanted to live) and in a lower price range, with the plan to live there until there's a downturn. I still haven't asked for permission to full-time telework yet - I'm waiting until April to ask. If they say 'no', I'm not sure what we'll do (stay here longer or look for a job in Florida).
 

BMF

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The house across the street from me went up for sale two weeks ago, and they got a little greedy - listing it for $715K. They've had two open houses and no offers, they just dropped the price to $694K. I was hoping they'd get the full asking - or higher (which is common around here). We're selling in the next 3 or so months. The houses are almost identical (I have a detached garage and they don't, that's the only big difference). I'm a little disappointed.
 

FireFoley

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The house across the street from me went up for sale two weeks ago, and they got a little greedy - listing it for $715K. They've had two open houses and no offers, they just dropped the price to $694K. I was hoping they'd get the full asking - or higher (which is common around here). We're selling in the next 3 or so months. The houses are almost identical (I have a detached garage and they don't, that's the only big difference). I'm a little disappointed.

I know the area you are in is quite insulated, but almost 1/2 point move higher in the 30yr. conventional and jumbo mortgage rate in one week does make some lookers drop out at these elevated price levels.. And I am guessing that chances are your house would be a buyer getting a jumbo mtge.
 

alcoholica

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If you’ve never done a sensitivity analysis on P&I and rate, you should. Especially now where rates are so low.
 

GatorCatsi

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RE: the charts below.

This is from a service I subscribe to. The writer has given permission to forward if anyone wants the complete note.

Here’s where I am right now as I try to piece together what the Opposite of 2008 means for markets and real-world.

Home price appreciation will not show up in official inflation stats. In fact, given that a) rents are flat to declining, and b) the Fed uses “rent equivalents” as their modeled proxy for housing inputs to cost of living calculations, it’s entirely possible that soaring home prices will end up being a negative contribution to official inflation statistics. This is, of course, absolutely insane, but it’s why we will continue to hear Jay Powell talk about “transitory” inflation that the Fed “just doesn’t see”.

Cash-out mortgage refis and HELOCs are going to explode. On Friday, I saw that Rocket Mortgage reported on their quarterly call that refi applications were coming in at their fastest rate ever. As the kids would say, I’m old enough to remember the tailwind that home equity withdrawals provided for … everything … in 2005-2007. This will also “surprise” the Fed.

Middle class (ie, home-owning) blue color labor mobility is dead. If you need to move to find a new job, you’re a renter. You’re not going to be able to buy a home in your new metro area. That really doesn’t matter for white color labor mobility, because you can work remotely. You don’t have to move to find a new job if you’re a white collar worker. Or if you want to put this in terms of demographics rather than class, this is great for boomers and awful for millennials and Gen Z’ers who want to buy a house and start a family.

As for markets … I think it is impossible for the Fed NOT to fall way behind the curve here. I think it is impossible for the Fed NOT to be caught flat-footed here. I think it is impossible for the Fed NOT to underreact for months and then find themselves in a position where they must overreact just to avoid a serious melt-up in real-world prices and pockets of market-world. Could a Covid variant surge tap the deflationary brakes on all this? Absolutely. But let’s hope that doesn’t happen! And even if it does happen, that’s only going to constrict housing supply still more, which is the real driver of these inflationary pressures.

Bottom line: I am increasingly thinking that both a Covid-recovery world AND a perma-Covid world are inflationary worlds, the former from a demand shock and the latter from a supply shock to the biggest and most important single asset market in the world – the US housing market.

It's just like 2008, except ... the opposite.

In 2008, the US housing market - together with a Fed that thought the subprime crisis was "contained" - delivered the mother of all deflationary shocks to the global economy.

In 2021, the US housing market - together with a Fed that thinks inflationary pressures are "transitory" - risks delivering the mother of all inflationary shocks.

It’s the only question that long-term investors MUST get right. You don’t have to get it right immediately. You don’t have to track and turn with every small movement of its path. But you MUST get this question roughly right: Am I in an inflationary world or a deflationary world?


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Mr2Bits

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Getting ready to do a refi on my 15 year taking it from 2.875 to 2.25....should save about $300/month. Feedback from my broker is get it now, these rates are headed upward!
 

FireFoley

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2020 had the most cash out refis since.... 2007.

upload_2021-3-12_11-36-21.jpeg that house prices might crack eventually, LOL?

As an aside I just walked away from my screen as I was sitting on edge waiting for the bond market to crack. But I had this eerie feeling that there was an unlimited buyer preventing that from happening. Guess it is busy over at NY FED offices today! Those Bastards.
 

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