Mortgage rates

[BMF]

Housing boom is over as new home sales fall to pandemic low

I have no clue and find it hard to extrapolate on one month's numbers, but I have noticed listings of existing homes (I know this was a new homes #) are taking more than 5 minutes to sell now. Perhaps this is the start of my 10-15 year prediction on a low, slow stair step down in prices. time will tell.

No offers yet here in Virginia....realtor thinks we should hold off on dropping the price (we've been on the market for 11 days). I'm not sweating it yet, but there's several houses around me that I've noticed still sitting. We're barely getting any showings (did another open house Sunday and only 6 groups visited) - we've probably had just over 20 groups/families look at it since it listed. The market has DEFINITELY cooled off here.

 

[BMF]

The historic lumber bubble is over, with price falling 68% from peak

The bubble has popped: Lumber prices fall 68% from their peak

 

[FireFoley]

No offers yet here in Virginia....realtor thinks we should hold off on dropping the price (we've been on the market for 11 days). I'm not sweating it yet, but there's several houses around me that I've noticed still sitting. We're barely getting any showings (did another open house Sunday and only 6 groups visited) - we've probably had just over 20 groups/families look at it since it listed. The market has DEFINITELY cooled off here.

Rooting for you @BMF, but doesn't it seem like about a month ago people were climbing on top of each other trying to buy a house exactly like yours, regardless of price and/or condition?

 

[BMF]

Rooting for you @BMF, but doesn't it seem like about a month ago people were climbing on top of each other trying to buy a house exactly like yours, regardless of price and/or condition?

No, not really. House across the street listed in either Feb or March, same exact house (w/ no addition) listed for $715k and sat, they dropped the price to $694k and that's what they got. It's weird. A house listed at $680k just closed (2 weeks ago) at $750k. Another house listed for $750k about a month ago has dropped their price. I don't get it. There's 7 houses in all of Arlington, VA listed for $650k-$750k (and only 3 under $700k). I have no clue what's going on. Our house has the detached garage, which the one across the street didn't have. We listed at $695, thinking that was very fair considering the house across the street...and the one that went for $750k two weeks ago (similar square footage, but different floor plan).

 

[FireFoley]

Maybe people on summer vacation? here in south Florida it was listed on MLS and under contract by end of day. Not anymore. Price drops yes, but no where near to get my interest. I doubt you will have an issue up there, but as I mentioned earlier this could be the beginning of a very long, very slow slough.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Housing boom is over as new home sales fall to pandemic low (cnbc.com)

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Thank god refi's have picked back up again. Seems a lot of would be upgraders have gotten a case of the POORS and many are going in for their 3rd, 4th and yes even 5th refi's in the last 5-6 years.....Yup still a lot of deeeevorces, conversions from 30 to 15 and a ton of paid off properties pulling out first position HELOC's.
Investor selloffs have also seen an uptick recently.

 

[Gatordiddy]

Thank god refi's have picked back up again. Seems a lot of would be upgraders have gotten a case of the POORS and many are going in for their 3rd, 4th and yes even 5th refi's in the last 5-6 years.....Yup still a lot of deeeevorces, conversions from 30 to 15 and a ton of paid off properties pulling out first position HELOC's.
Investor selloffs have also seen an uptick recently.

Re-fi question with regards to credit scores and the need for an appraisal.
we spoke with our broker and he said for a re-fi, if your median score from the three bureaus is 740 or higher, you don't need an in person appraisal.
Is that the general consensus?

 

[Concrete Helmet]

we spoke with our broker and he said for a re-fi, if your median score from the three bureaus is 740 or higher, you don't need an in person appraisal.
Is that the general consensus?

You see it more and more since property values have skyrocketed over the last few years. It used to be mandatory for lenders to want a new and or updated appraisal. Maybe it has something to do with the amount you're borrowing against the presumed value and it being your primary residence? It would also give your Broker/Lender a pricing edge since that is normally a paid upfront fee.

 

[Gatordiddy]

You see it more and more since property values have skyrocketed over the last few years. It used to be mandatory for lenders to want a new and or updated appraisal. Maybe it has something to do with the amount you're borrowing against the presumed value and it being your primary residence? It would also give your Broker/Lender a pricing edge since that is normally a paid upfront fee.

you may be right ... LTV might be at play here.
we owe about $579k between a primary and a heloc.
the latest 'zestimate' is ~$905k

 

[Concrete Helmet]

you may be right ... LTV might be at play here.
we owe about $579k between a primary and a heloc.
the latest 'zestimate' is ~$905k

That's a good position to be in especially with rates at where they are. You keeping the HELOC, taking out a new one, or just combining into a new 1st?

 

[Gatordiddy]

That's a good position to be in especially with rates at where they are. You keeping the HELOC, taking out a new one, or just combining into a new 1st?

combining it into a new first.

 

[FireFoley]

Thank god refi's have picked back up again. Seems a lot of would be upgraders have gotten a case of the POORS and many are going in for their 3rd, 4th and yes even 5th refi's in the last 5-6 years.....Yup still a lot of deeeevorces, conversions from 30 to 15 and a ton of paid off properties pulling out first position HELOC's.
Investor selloffs have also seen an uptick recently.

I actually think people converting to a 15yr. from a 30 yr. is very prudent. Beyond that, based on what you see, the people refi-ing for the 5th time, are they taking cash out, are they going up in years, just to save on the monthly amount? Do they understand that they will pay more over time, just to lessen the monthly nut? In regards to the HELOC's are people just opening them or do you thing they are tapping them and spending the cash?

 

[alcoholica]

I actually think people converting to a 15yr. from a 30 yr. is very prudent. Beyond that, based on what you see, the people refi-ing for the 5th time, are they taking cash out, are they going up in years, just to save on the monthly amount? Do they understand that they will pay more over time, just to lessen the monthly nut? In regards to the HELOC's are people just opening them or do you thing they are tapping them and spending the cash?

Yeah well, people are stupid....let's not forget that

 

[BMF]

Maybe people on summer vacation? here in south Florida it was listed on MLS and under contract by end of day. Not anymore. Price drops yes, but no where near to get my interest. I doubt you will have an issue up there, but as I mentioned earlier this could be the beginning of a very long, very slow slough.

We got a low-ball offer last night and declined. Wife and I decided if it sits for more than 30 days we may just go ahead and rent it for a year or two. We've had a showing last night and another one tonight. Hopefully something happens because I really don't want to be a landlord!

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I actually think people converting to a 15yr. from a 30 yr. is very prudent. Beyond that, based on what you see, the people refi-ing for the 5th time, are they taking cash out, are they going up in years, just to save on the monthly amount? Do they understand that they will pay more over time, just to lessen the monthly nut? In regards to the HELOC's are people just opening them or do you thing they are tapping them and spending the cash?

It's a mixture. You have to remember most people have no f vcking control over their spending and rack up 20k,30k and more in consumer debt, CC's, furniture, electronics, appliances or whatever every 2 or 3 years....simply put they want what they want when they want it.... and they will simply refinance if they have equity every time their credit limit is tapping out. They almost always go back to a 30 year loan clueless as to ever wanting to own the biggest investment before they retire I guess.

The 1st position HELOC's are mostly properties held in Trust(older folks) and I think most just sit on the heloc as a source of handy funds or whatever repairs or improvements they might be needing instead of tapping into their retirement savings.

 

[FireFoley]

It's a mixture. You have to remember most people have no f vcking control over their spending and rack up 20k,30k and more in consumer debt, CC's, furniture, electronics, appliances or whatever every 2 or 3 years....simply put they want what they want when they want it.... and they will simply refinance if they have equity every time their credit limit is tapping out. They almost always go back to a 30 year loan clueless as to ever wanting to own the biggest investment before they retire I guess.

The 1st position HELOC's are mostly properties held in Trust(older folks) and I think most just sit on the heloc as a source of handy funds or whatever repairs or improvements they might be needing instead of tapping into their retirement savings.

Thanks but you certainly do not have to remind me. I am the champion of "We live in the dumbest country in the world" when it comes to people living within or beneath their means! I truly know just how stupid people are.

 

[FireFoley]

We got a low-ball offer last night and declined. Wife and I decided if it sits for more than 30 days we may just go ahead and rent it for a year or two. We've had a showing last night and another one tonight. Hopefully something happens because I really don't want to be a landlord!

Good luck. I chuckled at the low ball offer comment. It is a little too soon IMO for buyers to think that low balling is going to work right now. Maybe when things dry up, but we are a long way from that right now.

 

[BMF]

Good luck. I chuckled at the low ball offer comment. It is a little too soon IMO for buyers to think that low balling is going to work right now. Maybe when things dry up, but we are a long way from that right now.

He super low balled (655k, 40k under asking) and was planning to put a 45% down payment. So he's got the money, just wants a deal. I didn't even counter offer, told my agent I'm not going to deal with a low ball offer and we'll rent it before we take an offer that low. We could probably get at least $2800/month (maybe as high as $3100), which is $600+/mo over the mortgage payment...and if we got a 2 year lease I'd probably refinance it to a lower rate/lower payment.

 

[FireFoley]

He super low balled (655k, 40k under asking) and was planning to put a 45% down payment. So he's got the money, just wants a deal. I didn't even counter offer, told my agent I'm not going to deal with a low ball offer and we'll rent it before we take an offer that low. We could probably get at least $2800/month (maybe as high as $3100), which is $600+/mo over the mortgage payment...and if we got a 2 year lease I'd probably refinance it to a lower rate/lower payment.

You sound like me. No BS. here it is take it or leave it. The back and forth dance is just ponderous. Want a laugh, I just saw a listing here 525K, stale, dropped their price by 10 BUX. Not 10K but TEN DOLLARS. That way it shows up in the price drop section, LOL