- Sep 8, 2014
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First and 10: Is Dan Mullen the most overrated coach in America?
First and 10: Is Dan Mullen the most overrated coach in America?
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
It’s time to reevaluate the idea that Florida’s Dan Mullen is 1 of the 10 best coaches in college football.
You’ve heard it all by now, those same regurgitated talking points that have fortified the résumé of a coach who has never won a conference championship, yet is held in the same high regard as those with national titles.
A great football mind. A quarterback guru. The best play-caller in college football. A coach the NFL wants.
“There’s so much that goes into hiring a coach, but at the top of the list is, can you recruit and can you win games that matter?” a Power 5 AD told me Sunday. “I’m not sure what any of that other stuff means.”
Maybe we can help.
The great football mind is 2-6 in his past 8 games against Power 5 teams.
The quarterback guru has been playing the wrong quarterback for the past 2 games, and further mismanagement could cost Florida a generational talent (more on that later).
The best play-caller in college football had 6 points in the first half against an LSU defense that was missing 6 – yes, 6! – starters before one of those young replacement cornerbacks blew a Hail Mary coverage and gifted the Gators a touchdown.
A coach the NFL wants blew the biggest offseason decision, keeping embattled defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, whose unit in 2020 was statistically the worst in school history – and somehow played worse against LSU.
More than anything, a top-10 coach in college football doesn’t have a 6-7 record vs. ranked teams and isn’t 2-8 vs. the 4 SEC coaches in the same salary zip code (Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, Ed Orgeron).
It’s the last coach of that group, the recently fired Orgeron — and the past 2 games against LSU — that are beginning to expose the shell game that is the narrative of Mullen as a top-10 coach.
Orgeron and LSU beat Mullen and Florida in 2020 as a double-digit underdog, and with less than 55 scholarship players available because of injury and COVID policy. The Tigers had a freshman quarterback making his first start, and the Gators were an undisciplined mess despite having better talent at most positions (and specifically, the most important positions) on the field.
LSU did it again last weekend, winning as a double-digit underdog in the face of – if this is possible – significantly greater obstacles. The Tigers are a mess, Orgeron’s job security was tenuous (he was forced out Sunday but will coach the rest of the season) and the defense was gutted.
LSU was 127th in the nation in rushing offense going into the game (88.3 ypg.), and ran for 321 yards. Tailback Tyrion Davis-Price had 288 yards in 5 previous games, and had 287 and 3 TDs on 36 carries – much of it coming on the same counter trey play Florida couldn’t stop. Over and over and over again.
More disturbing, an NFL scout who was at the game told me Florida “looked like they didn’t want to be there for the first half.”
And the Florida defense? “They had no idea what they were doing against, honestly, a basic run play that can be stopped any number of ways – the easiest being effort,” the scout said.
That’s a bad look, ladies and gentlemen.
That’s the look of a team playing out a string, a team whose season had reached desperation 2 weeks earlier with another loss to another heavy underdog. This time it was Kentucky, which before Mullen arrived at Florida in 2018, had lost 27 straight to the Gators.
The Wildcats have now won 2 of the past 4 meetings.
That was Mullen smiling and yukking it up with his friend, UK coach Mark Stoops, after the game – after his team had just been all but eliminated from the SEC race, and after the best play-caller in college football ate nearly 90 seconds at the end of the first half of a one-possession game.
After the game, Mullen was asked if he were outcoached by Stoops, whose team had 211 total yards, ran 47 plays, completed 7 passes and converted 1-of-9 3rd downs.
“No. 382 yards, I guess that’s sputtering,” Mullen said. “We had 382 and they had 211.”
Yeah, the NFL must be beating down the door in Gainesville to hire Mullen.
2. What could’ve been …
There were some within the Florida administration who were privately hoping Mullen would get an NFL job after last season.
It’s nearly impossible to fire a coach who won 29 games in his first 3 seasons and led all 3 teams to New Year’s 6 bowls. But after Mullen’s off-field NCAA violations put Florida on probation for the first time in 3 decades, and after 3 public embarrassments during 3 separate postgame press conferences, there were some dicey moments last offseason in the evaluation of the program.
Instead, Mullen received a 3-year contract extension and a $1.5 million a year raise – his reward for (not necessarily on this order) NCAA probation, a head coach show-cause edict from the NCAA, 3 straight losses to finish the season and a Heisman Trophy finalist in QB Kyle Trask.
That, more than anything, is where the Mullen narrative was born and has been nurtured over the years: He’s a quarterback guru.
From Josh Harris at Bowling Green, to Alex Smith at Utah, to Tim Tebow at Florida, to Dak Prescott at Mississippi State, to Trask. He developed them, they won games and some won championships.
Only there’s one teeny-weeny problem: Smith led an unbeaten season at Utah under coach Urban Meyer and with Mullen as offensive coordinator. Tebow won 2 national titles.
Trask’s most memorable game as a Mullen starter? A win over Georgia, or a near win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Prescott set nearly every Mississippi State passing record and led the Bulldogs to the No. 1 ranking in 2014. That team also lost to Alabama and rival Ole Miss to end the season.
The argument isn’t necessarily against Mullen as a successful coach. It’s against Mullen as 1 of the top 10 coaches in college football.
And a coach Florida should continue throwing millions at.
3. The great football mind, The Epilogue
The quarterback guru is in his most precarious spot yet at the most important position on the field.
Anthony Richardson is the best quarterback on the Florida roster, a unique talent with a rare skill-set who can elevate the program to the top of the SEC for the first time since 2008.
At one point during the LSU game, former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi tweeted, “I’d buy stock in Richardson to be a very high draft pick in three years. Wow.”
The question: For which college team?
Richardson told Gators Territory after the LSU loss that “time is the only thing that can tell, but right now, I’m a Gator.” Hours later on Twitter, he clarified his comments and said he’s not going anywhere.
If you believe he’s not considering transferring if he doesn’t start, you also believe Mullen wasn’t outcoached by Stoops.
If neither Richardson nor Emory Jones gives you confidence managing the offense, it’s an easy choice – especially with the state of the SEC East Division race – to play the better player.
Richardson sees the field and throws with anticipation. The offense moves with rhythm and consistency – even if there are mistakes and/or turnovers.
Jones struggles to throw on time, and is often late (the last play of the Kentucky game, a TD if thrown on time, a perfect example). And there are turnovers – 2 interceptions against LSU that led to 14 points (one a pick-6).
You don’t have to be a former NFL personnel executive to see Mullen had been playing the wrong quarterback.
Or as one NFL scout told me Sunday, “One of those guys will play quarterback in our league, the other won’t.”
First and 10: Is Dan Mullen the most overrated coach in America?
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
It’s time to reevaluate the idea that Florida’s Dan Mullen is 1 of the 10 best coaches in college football.
You’ve heard it all by now, those same regurgitated talking points that have fortified the résumé of a coach who has never won a conference championship, yet is held in the same high regard as those with national titles.
A great football mind. A quarterback guru. The best play-caller in college football. A coach the NFL wants.
“There’s so much that goes into hiring a coach, but at the top of the list is, can you recruit and can you win games that matter?” a Power 5 AD told me Sunday. “I’m not sure what any of that other stuff means.”
Maybe we can help.
The great football mind is 2-6 in his past 8 games against Power 5 teams.
The quarterback guru has been playing the wrong quarterback for the past 2 games, and further mismanagement could cost Florida a generational talent (more on that later).
The best play-caller in college football had 6 points in the first half against an LSU defense that was missing 6 – yes, 6! – starters before one of those young replacement cornerbacks blew a Hail Mary coverage and gifted the Gators a touchdown.
A coach the NFL wants blew the biggest offseason decision, keeping embattled defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, whose unit in 2020 was statistically the worst in school history – and somehow played worse against LSU.
More than anything, a top-10 coach in college football doesn’t have a 6-7 record vs. ranked teams and isn’t 2-8 vs. the 4 SEC coaches in the same salary zip code (Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, Ed Orgeron).
It’s the last coach of that group, the recently fired Orgeron — and the past 2 games against LSU — that are beginning to expose the shell game that is the narrative of Mullen as a top-10 coach.
Orgeron and LSU beat Mullen and Florida in 2020 as a double-digit underdog, and with less than 55 scholarship players available because of injury and COVID policy. The Tigers had a freshman quarterback making his first start, and the Gators were an undisciplined mess despite having better talent at most positions (and specifically, the most important positions) on the field.
LSU did it again last weekend, winning as a double-digit underdog in the face of – if this is possible – significantly greater obstacles. The Tigers are a mess, Orgeron’s job security was tenuous (he was forced out Sunday but will coach the rest of the season) and the defense was gutted.
LSU was 127th in the nation in rushing offense going into the game (88.3 ypg.), and ran for 321 yards. Tailback Tyrion Davis-Price had 288 yards in 5 previous games, and had 287 and 3 TDs on 36 carries – much of it coming on the same counter trey play Florida couldn’t stop. Over and over and over again.
More disturbing, an NFL scout who was at the game told me Florida “looked like they didn’t want to be there for the first half.”
And the Florida defense? “They had no idea what they were doing against, honestly, a basic run play that can be stopped any number of ways – the easiest being effort,” the scout said.
That’s a bad look, ladies and gentlemen.
That’s the look of a team playing out a string, a team whose season had reached desperation 2 weeks earlier with another loss to another heavy underdog. This time it was Kentucky, which before Mullen arrived at Florida in 2018, had lost 27 straight to the Gators.
The Wildcats have now won 2 of the past 4 meetings.
That was Mullen smiling and yukking it up with his friend, UK coach Mark Stoops, after the game – after his team had just been all but eliminated from the SEC race, and after the best play-caller in college football ate nearly 90 seconds at the end of the first half of a one-possession game.
After the game, Mullen was asked if he were outcoached by Stoops, whose team had 211 total yards, ran 47 plays, completed 7 passes and converted 1-of-9 3rd downs.
“No. 382 yards, I guess that’s sputtering,” Mullen said. “We had 382 and they had 211.”
Yeah, the NFL must be beating down the door in Gainesville to hire Mullen.
2. What could’ve been …
There were some within the Florida administration who were privately hoping Mullen would get an NFL job after last season.
It’s nearly impossible to fire a coach who won 29 games in his first 3 seasons and led all 3 teams to New Year’s 6 bowls. But after Mullen’s off-field NCAA violations put Florida on probation for the first time in 3 decades, and after 3 public embarrassments during 3 separate postgame press conferences, there were some dicey moments last offseason in the evaluation of the program.
Instead, Mullen received a 3-year contract extension and a $1.5 million a year raise – his reward for (not necessarily on this order) NCAA probation, a head coach show-cause edict from the NCAA, 3 straight losses to finish the season and a Heisman Trophy finalist in QB Kyle Trask.
That, more than anything, is where the Mullen narrative was born and has been nurtured over the years: He’s a quarterback guru.
From Josh Harris at Bowling Green, to Alex Smith at Utah, to Tim Tebow at Florida, to Dak Prescott at Mississippi State, to Trask. He developed them, they won games and some won championships.
Only there’s one teeny-weeny problem: Smith led an unbeaten season at Utah under coach Urban Meyer and with Mullen as offensive coordinator. Tebow won 2 national titles.
Trask’s most memorable game as a Mullen starter? A win over Georgia, or a near win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Prescott set nearly every Mississippi State passing record and led the Bulldogs to the No. 1 ranking in 2014. That team also lost to Alabama and rival Ole Miss to end the season.
The argument isn’t necessarily against Mullen as a successful coach. It’s against Mullen as 1 of the top 10 coaches in college football.
And a coach Florida should continue throwing millions at.
3. The great football mind, The Epilogue
The quarterback guru is in his most precarious spot yet at the most important position on the field.
Anthony Richardson is the best quarterback on the Florida roster, a unique talent with a rare skill-set who can elevate the program to the top of the SEC for the first time since 2008.
At one point during the LSU game, former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi tweeted, “I’d buy stock in Richardson to be a very high draft pick in three years. Wow.”
The question: For which college team?
Richardson told Gators Territory after the LSU loss that “time is the only thing that can tell, but right now, I’m a Gator.” Hours later on Twitter, he clarified his comments and said he’s not going anywhere.
If you believe he’s not considering transferring if he doesn’t start, you also believe Mullen wasn’t outcoached by Stoops.
If neither Richardson nor Emory Jones gives you confidence managing the offense, it’s an easy choice – especially with the state of the SEC East Division race – to play the better player.
Richardson sees the field and throws with anticipation. The offense moves with rhythm and consistency – even if there are mistakes and/or turnovers.
Jones struggles to throw on time, and is often late (the last play of the Kentucky game, a TD if thrown on time, a perfect example). And there are turnovers – 2 interceptions against LSU that led to 14 points (one a pick-6).
You don’t have to be a former NFL personnel executive to see Mullen had been playing the wrong quarterback.
Or as one NFL scout told me Sunday, “One of those guys will play quarterback in our league, the other won’t.”