2022 investing thread

bradgator2

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I thought Senile Sid was just going to have his good friends the A-Rabs turn their spigots on and all would be good? Guess that did not happen. :dunno::dunno:
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BMF

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Another prediction for 4 rate hikes this year from Goldman's:

 

Bernardo de la Paz

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Another prediction for 4 rate hikes this year from Goldman's:


The last article you posted with JP Morgan Chase predicting more than 4 also noted this prediction from Goldman and one from Deutschbank predicting 4.
 

BMF

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The last article you posted with JP Morgan Chase predicting more than 4 also noted this prediction from Goldman and one from Deutschbank predicting 4.

And? The earlier predictions were 3. So I'm posting predictions of more than 3. Do you have anything to contribute here? Or do you just come in w nothing but combative "I'm the best investor on the forum" bullsh*t?? I'd like input on the impact of 4 (or more) rate hikes - @Concrete Helmet is good in this area - or you could contribute something besides telling me how many rate hikes are in the article that I posted.
 

Bernardo de la Paz

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And? The earlier predictions were 3. So I'm posting predictions of more than 3. Do you have anything to contribute here? Or do you just come in w nothing but combative "I'm the best investor on the forum" bullsh*t?? I'd like input on the impact of 4 (or more) rate hikes - @Concrete Helmet is good in this area - or you could contribute something besides telling me how many rate hikes are in the article that I posted.
Relax Francis. I'm just busting your balls for spamming the thread with stuff you clearly haven't even read.

And I've certainly never claimed to be the best investor on the forum. I'm more of a lazy investor who has most of his money in index funds.
 

BMF

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Relax Francis. I'm just busting your balls for spamming the thread with stuff you clearly haven't even read.

And I've certainly never claimed to be the best investor on the forum. I'm more of a lazy investor who has most of his money in index funds.

Thanks for assuming I "clearly" haven't read the article. smh
 

Concrete Helmet

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I'd like input on the impact of 4 (or more) rate hikes - @Concrete Helmet is good in this area - or you could contribute something besides telling me how many rate hikes are in the article that I posted.
I'm not really of any expertise on the matter but I find it hard to believe they could pull that off seeing how the market goes into convulsions everytime the 10yr goes up 5-10 basis points. The tapering has started as we know they have cut back on bond purchases over the last couple of months. If they actually raise rates 4 times they better be very small increases otherwise they risk killing not only the bond and stock market but also RE....

I think they do this slowly over time and give the market a chance to breath in between rounds...at least that is what people like us are praying for.
 

Concrete Helmet

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Looks like Powell burped the baby today...10yr down a few points....NASDAQ goes into the green...I think this is how it will go for a while....a day or 2 up and 2 or 3 down.
 

78

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If we knew the degree to which the higher CPI numbers were embedded in the economy maybe we could all make a 100% accurate call. Not everyone’s sold on the idea inflation is as much of an issue as it’s been made out to be. A number of economists are already predicting a softening this year as the economy continues to expand. Translation: an easing of supply-chain interruptions. It’s transitory more than money supply related.

If you buy into it being good old fashioned organic inflation, if you want to hedge, you shorten the duration on both bonds and equities. And vice versa. You may even consider, at higher risk, ditching bonds altogether for alternatives like REITs, managed futures and commodities. Bonds have been a shoddy investment for half a generation thanks to the Fed’s indulgence.

There’s still a lot of liquidity sloshing around in the economy. We’re likely to see the pace of economic activity pick up. You may think inflation is a big worry until you weigh in the impact of globalized labor costs. Yes, deflation always seems just around the corner.

This ain’t 1982. I think the shelf life is limited. I hate consumer staples and energy. I think there’s attractive PEs in the growth sector now that inflation worries have scared the bejeezus out of growth investors. I think small caps have been mercilessly beaten for a long time. I may be bucking the trend. I may be setting it. Time will tell.
 

Concrete Helmet

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If we knew the degree to which the higher CPI numbers were embedded in the economy maybe we could all make a 100% accurate call. Not everyone’s sold on the idea inflation is as much of an issue as it’s been made out to be. A number of economists are already predicting a softening this year as the economy continues to expand. Translation: an easing of supply-chain interruptions. It’s transitory more than money supply related.

If you buy into it being good old fashioned organic inflation, if you want to hedge, you shorten the duration on both bonds and equities. And vice versa. You may even consider, at higher risk, ditching bonds altogether for alternatives like REITs, managed futures and commodities. Bonds have been a shoddy investment for half a generation thanks to the Fed’s indulgence.

There’s still a lot of liquidity sloshing around in the economy. We’re likely to see the pace of economic activity pick up. You may think inflation is a big worry until you weigh in the impact of globalized labor costs. Yes, deflation always seems just around the corner.

This ain’t 1982. I think the shelf life is limited. I hate consumer staples and energy. I think there’s attractive PEs in the growth sector now that inflation worries have scared the bejeezus out of growth investors. I think small caps have been mercilessly beaten for a long time. I may be bucking the trend. I may be setting it. Time will tell.
So you're calling bluff?

REITS in a rising interest rate cycle?
Hate Energy when it's returning 50-150% gains AND 4-8% dividend?

Returning supply chain with rising labor, taxes and material cost? Are these cost not going to be passed on to the consumer?

No it's not 1982 and there are no 15% treasuries for all of that liquidity to run to.....There also isn't a Ronald Reagan to control bad actors around the globe.....now we have Ronald McDonald....Putin and Xi's personal court jester.

Please explain....
 
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78

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So you're calling bluff?

REITS in a rising interest rate cycle?
Hate Energy when it's returning 50-150% gains AND 4-8% dividend?

Returning supply chain with rising labor, taxes and material cost? Are these cost not going to be passed on to the consumer?

No it's not 1982 and there are no 15% treasuries for all of that liquidity to run to.....There also isn't a Ronald Reagan to control bad actors around the globe.....now we have Ronald McDonald....Putin and Xi's personal court jester.

Please explain....

The higher prices have been caused by temporary breakdowns in supply chains, a temporary burst in consumer spending and the temporary tail on the dog, higher labor costs. Minus Nos. 1 and 2, No. 3 can’t and won’t sustain itself.

You go right ahead and plow your money into those overbought 4-8% dividend oil stocks.

REITs come in two flavors, mortgage and equity, and you can break down the sector in the equity REIT. The latter will fair better in a rising interest rate environment. Would I load up on them? No.
 

Concrete Helmet

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The higher prices have been caused by temporary breakdowns in supply chains, a temporary burst in consumer spending and the temporary tail on the dog, higher labor costs. Minus Nos. 1 and 2, No. 3 can’t and won’t sustain itself.
You're scratching the ground but not breaking the surface....where do almost all products start off? In the ground....mining and extraction cost have gone through the roof....we have global shortages in food(think fertilizer/natural gas) copper/silver/iron ore and battery metals will be needed for infrastructure and re electrification and are critically short in supply as well as being hoarded by China. Oil will be needed to get those items out of the ground and moved to their destination while sustaining the rest of the energy short planet until we convert to alternative energy sources.....btw I'm very long in uranium,....and yes I have replaced my useless bonds with those 4-8% dividend oil and gas stocks WHILE they still have another 30-50% growth over the next 3-5 years....

We have not even had the entire world up and running all at one time in 2 years and I'll bet my left nut that will further stretch the already short supply...Carbon credits will be a huge market in getting to that place also...... Tech/Growth is so 1999...
 

FireFoley

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If we knew the degree to which the higher CPI numbers were embedded in the economy maybe we could all make a 100% accurate call. Not everyone’s sold on the idea inflation is as much of an issue as it’s been made out to be. A number of economists are already predicting a softening this year as the economy continues to expand. Translation: an easing of supply-chain interruptions. It’s transitory more than money supply related.

If you buy into it being good old fashioned organic inflation, if you want to hedge, you shorten the duration on both bonds and equities. And vice versa. You may even consider, at higher risk, ditching bonds altogether for alternatives like REITs, managed futures and commodities. Bonds have been a shoddy investment for half a generation thanks to the Fed’s indulgence.

There’s still a lot of liquidity sloshing around in the economy. We’re likely to see the pace of economic activity pick up. You may think inflation is a big worry until you weigh in the impact of globalized labor costs. Yes, deflation always seems just around the corner.

This ain’t 1982. I think the shelf life is limited. I hate consumer staples and energy. I think there’s attractive PEs in the growth sector now that inflation worries have scared the bejeezus out of growth investors. I think small caps have been mercilessly beaten for a long time. I may be bucking the trend. I may be setting it. Time will tell.

I have to disagree with that statement a bit. If you are viewing it from a coupon clipping or interest rate perspective perhaps, but bonds have been a great investment for quite a while from a capital appreciation view, especially long dated bonds. Think of someone holding say 30 yr. paper with a 5% coupon at par from say 12 or so years ago and for the last 6-10 years those long rates have more than been cut in half. That holder can still collect the 5% or sell that bond at a significant premium over par, depending on the duration remaining.
 

bradgator2

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I think small caps have been mercilessly beaten for a long time

What’s your theory on this? It’s approaching 100% losses and ALL their trends are identical copies of each other. If you wanted to select some individual picks on sale…. This is sector
 

78

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You're scratching the ground but not breaking the surface....where do almost all products start off? In the ground....mining and extraction cost have gone through the roof....we have global shortages in food(think fertilizer/natural gas) copper/silver/iron ore and battery metals will be needed for infrastructure and re electrification and are critically short in supply as well as being hoarded by China. Oil will be needed to get those items out of the ground and moved to their destination while sustaining the rest of the energy short planet until we convert to alternative energy sources.....btw I'm very long in uranium,....and yes I have replaced my useless bonds with those 4-8% dividend oil and gas stocks WHILE they still have another 30-50% growth over the next 3-5 years....

We have not even had the entire world up and running all at one time in 2 years and I'll bet my left nut that will further stretch the already short supply...Carbon credits will be a huge market in getting to that place also...... Tech/Growth is so 1999...

Everything you cited is severely impacted by supply chain bottlenecks.
 

78

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I have to disagree with that statement a bit. If you are viewing it from a coupon clipping or interest rate perspective perhaps, but bonds have been a great investment for quite a while from a capital appreciation view, especially long dated bonds. Think of someone holding say 30 yr. paper with a 5% coupon at par from say 12 or so years ago and for the last 6-10 years those long rates have more than been cut in half. That holder can still collect the 5% or sell that bond at a significant premium over par, depending on the duration remaining.

Yes, there will always be pockets of exceptions. By and large, though, we both know bonds are tapped and have been for some time due to the Fed’s easing orgy.
 

78

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What’s your theory on this? It’s approaching 100% losses and ALL their trends are identical copies of each other. If you wanted to select some individual picks on sale…. This is sector

It’s the dirty little secret the financial media doesn’t want you to know because they’re too busy tracking the big cap indexes. It’s been an awful period for small caps, which are even more sensitive to a hawkish Fed.
 

78

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BTW, Crete, I hope you sold your positions in AOL and China Telecom from 1999.
 

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