This is from Tom Luginbill:
These numbers may shift up or down a bit, but not by hundreds. Let’s take a look.
- In any given class, roughly 2,800 prospects will sign with FBS programs at the Group of 5 or Power 5 level. That is a signing number, not necessarily the number that will actually arrive on campus.
- At this time, roughly 1,950 players and counting have signed their national letters of intent (70 percent of that 2,800), with more expected to come before the 72-hour signing window concludes Friday.
- There are around 530 players who are verbally committed but who have not signed. That number will continue to decrease with players signing before Friday night, but not by hundreds.
- So if we do the math, this leaves roughly 400 uncommitted available players still to sign with FBS programs come the first Wednesday in February.
So with 130 FBS teams in the mix, the player pool just turned into a puddle.
So what does all this mean for the next seven weeks? The dead period runs through January 10, 2018, so staffs can use the time partly to calculate their remaining numbers and needs as well as those of their competitors. Essentially the month of January is going to be like a bunch of FBS coaches sitting around a table playing poker, but with their cards are turned around and everyone seeing what the other is playing with.
Administrative/player personnel staffs are crunching numbers of their own roster and those of peer teams in and out of their conferences. Who signed who? Which players didn’t sign? Which verbally committed players are vulnerable to be flipped in January? Which verbally committed kid listened to the overture from another school and didn’t sign? The schools with the most available spots left must be particularly keen to this, as they need to make up the most ground.
In the Pac-12 for example, six of its 12 teams have either committed or signed 13 or fewer players. That number may rise a bit by the end of Friday, but it is clear the conference has work to do.
Of the states within the Pac-12 footprint, 283 players signed as of midday Thursday. However, only 155 of them signed with Pac-12 schools. There are around 550 uncommitted prospects in the ESPN database from the states with Pac-12 schools in their borders. The issue is that roughly only 100 or so of those players are Pac-12 caliber talents.
