2018 LeeForThree/Gatorchatter Bracketology

Jbossgator8

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Looks like 12 of our 19 wins could be against possible tourney teams...
 

t-gator

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I'll have a more set in stone list after conference tourneys, but as of right now, the list is Duke, Michigan St., or Purdue. Maybe Nova. UVA isn't good enough on offense and it's going to bite them in the ass at least once in six games if they make it that far. Nova's defensive numbers scare me, but man can they put up some points.
Solid list . I'd also throw in zona
 

Gator Fever

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Jerry Palm only has us an 8 seed this morning. I think he is definitely off with that despite some bad losses at home. Heck even if we lost to KY today and didn't have a good SEC tourney we are probably around an 8 seed. Beat KY today and we are probably a lock for at least a 6 seed even if we don't win an SEC tourney game.
 

MidwestChomp

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I want nothing to do with a 5 spot. I hate that seed. I would rather be a 6 or 7.
 

InstiGATOR1

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UF will enter the NCAA tourney with either 11 or if UF does not win the SEC tourney 12 losses. So I went back the last 5 tourneys to see what the top seed with 11 and 12 losses were:

2017: 11 losses a 7 seed, 12 losses a 10 seed
2016: 11 losses a 4 seed, 12 losses a 6 seed
2015: 11 losses a 4 seed, 12 losses a 9 seed
2014: 11 losses a 6 seed, 12 losses a 9 seed
2013: 11 losses a 5 seed, 12 losses a 7 seed

I suspect that if enters the NCAA tourney with 12 losses UF will be the highest seed with 12 losses in at least the last 5 seasons.
 

Gator Fever

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I guess Palm at CBS really doesn't like us. He now has us only a 7 seed and KY a 5 seed after that game. I have a feeling all the others will have us a 5 or 6 seed right now.
 

Captain Sasquatch

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If we can manage to beat Arkansas and Tennessee on the way to the championship game, that’ll push us up to a 5. Not sure if winning it would get us up to a 4, maybe if we beat Auburn to do it.
 

InstiGATOR1

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If we can manage to beat Arkansas and Tennessee on the way to the championship game, that’ll push us up to a 5. Not sure if winning it would get us up to a 4, maybe if we beat Auburn to do it.

Four and five are essentially the same. The only differences are playing a 12 v. a 13 in your first game and the 4 is the lowest "protected" seed. Sure a 12 might beat you, heck a 12 might beat this team at home and the same can be said for a 13. As far as getting a favorable pod for the first two games, the sites this year are Nashville, Charlotte, Boise, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Wichita, San Diego and Dallas. So I do not see any pod site that really aids UF.
 

Captain Sasquatch

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Four and five are essentially the same. The only differences are playing a 12 v. a 13 in your first game and the 4 is the lowest "protected" seed. Sure a 12 might beat you, heck a 12 might beat this team at home and the same can be said for a 13. As far as getting a favorable pod for the first two games, the sites this year are Nashville, Charlotte, Boise, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Wichita, San Diego and Dallas. So I do not see any pod site that really aids UF.
Charlotte has a strong Gator base, that would be about it. And I’d much rather play a 13 than an 11 or 12, especially one that’s coming off a play-in game.
 

InstiGATOR1

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And I’d much rather play a 13 than an 11 or 12, especially one that’s coming off a play-in game.

With this bunch I would much rather see an opponent that they feel threatens them or even better one who has already beaten them. With a typical team you are right the worse opponent the better, but these guys need an opponent that gets their attention. Heck a rematch with Loyola-Chicago would not be the worst first round opponent for this team. I do agree I never prefer a team coming off of winning a play in game.
 

LeeForThree

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1 Seed
Virginia
Villanova
Xavier
Kansas

2 Seed
Michigan St
Purdue
Duke
Auburn

3 Seed
Cincinnati
Clemson
North Carolina
Tennessee

4 Seed
Arizona
Gonzaga
Florida
Texas Tech

5 Seed
Kentucky
Michigan
Wichita St
Ohio St

6 Seed
Nevada
Miami
West Virginia
Seton Hall

7 Seed
TCU
Virginia Tech
Texas A&M
Arkansas

8 Seed
NC St
Florida St
Rhode Island
Arizona St

9 Seed
Creighton
Missouri
Oklahoma
Houston

10 Seed
St. Mary's
Oklahoma St
Mississippi St
Butler

11 Seed
Texas
Providence
Kansas St
Loyola Chicago
St. Bonaventure

12 Seed
Middle Tennessee St
Baylor
Alabama
USC
Syracuse

Here is my update. Doing the bracket takes a while so I will don't closer to the real reveal
 

InstiGATOR1

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Let's look at one more thing here. Here are the quadrant 1 and quadrant 1 + 2 records of the top 20 seeds according to Palm:

1. 8-3, 15-3
1. 6-3, 15-4
1. 9-1, 13-2
1. 10-3, 18-6

2. 6-4, 13-6
2. 6-3, 12-5
2. 4-4, 12-4
2. 3-4, 9--4

3. 6-6, 12-7
3. 6-6, 12-8
3. 7-6, 12-6
3. 10-7, 13-8

4. 4-2, 14-4
4. 4-8, 11-8
4. 7-7, 13-8
4. 3-3, 11-6

5. 6-5, 10-6
5. 4-2, 6-4
5. 3-6, 9-8
5. 3-9, 12-10

UF by the way is 10-4, 13-10. Only on the 1 line are teams +6 in quadrant 1 wins. You start getting around +3 in quadrant 1 + quadrant 2 wins around the 4 seed range. Only one team on the 1 line has played as many quadrant 1 + quadrant 2 games. It will be really interesting to see where the committee puts UF.
 

LeeForThree

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Let's look at one more thing here. Here are the quadrant 1 and quadrant 1 + 2 records of the top 20 seeds according to Palm:

1. 8-3, 15-3
1. 6-3, 15-4
1. 9-1, 13-2
1. 10-3, 18-6

2. 6-4, 13-6
2. 6-3, 12-5
2. 4-4, 12-4
2. 3-4, 9--4

3. 6-6, 12-7
3. 6-6, 12-8
3. 7-6, 12-6
3. 10-7, 13-8

4. 4-2, 14-4
4. 4-8, 11-8
4. 7-7, 13-8
4. 3-3, 11-6

5. 6-5, 10-6
5. 4-2, 6-4
5. 3-6, 9-8
5. 3-9, 12-10

UF by the way is 10-4, 13-10. Only on the 1 line are teams +6 in quadrant 1 wins. You start getting around +3 in quadrant 1 + quadrant 2 wins around the 4 seed range. Only one team on the 1 line has played as many quadrant 1 + quadrant 2 games. It will be really interesting to see where the committee puts UF.
That's why I feel we are a 4 at the moment
 

InstiGATOR1

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That's why I feel we are a 4 at the moment

Another way to look at it is:

1. RPI of 39 at the moment puts UF at a 10 seed.
2. Quadrant 1 wins puts UF at a 1 seed.
3. Quadrant 1 + Quadrant 2 wins puts UF in the 2 to 4 seed range.
4. UF has a winning record at home, on the road and at neutral sites.
5. Kenpom has UF at 21 in the country.

If you just look at the 4 quantitative points above and give UF a 3 to average point 3, then you get 10+1+3+6 = 19 and you can divide 20 by 4 and get UF as a 5 seed.

The irony of all of this is that as soon as the bracket is announced, I will look at UF's pod and not consider anything else in the bracket.
 

LeeForThree

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Go to ESPN now. FGCU was down 32 in the 2nd half. Now down 10. Winner goes dancing
 

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