Recruiting NSD 2020 Thread: Zach Evans goes to TCU

TheDouglas78

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That’s valid. Depends on what you think is more sustainable long term. I think the Kirby model is outdated - you used to be able to lock down talent easily to support your program and keep them from others. With the portal, not as easy any longer. The number of outbound transfers builds a bad look. I think if Mullen could improve his recruiting just a bit - and Brewster might be exactly what is needed to get us there - than his model will ultimately win out. Snake oil salesmen get outed every time if they fail to produce.

Seabee, the model is the NFL model, and building through the draft are the teams that are continuously staying in the hunt. Now it's easier to get that final piece or that a stop gap guy. But over all recruiting and a massing talent are going to win out. How many times have you seen the Patriots trade picks to get more middle picks and those guys end up being players. I think the Portal is great for the athletes, because so many things can happen in college to make it the wrong fit. But if coaches think this is where I'm going to fill every hole without doing proper planning, it's not. We have been fortunite so far, but like the NFL the use of Free Agents hit/miss with regress to a mean where it is usually less than 50% that really pan out to be more than role fillers.
 

SeabeeGator

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Seabee, the model is the NFL model, and building through the draft are the teams that are continuously staying in the hunt. Now it's easier to get that final piece or that a stop gap guy. But over all recruiting and a massing talent are going to win out. How many times have you seen the Patriots trade picks to get more middle picks and those guys end up being players. I think the Portal is great for the athletes, because so many things can happen in college to make it the wrong fit. But if coaches think this is where I'm going to fill every hole without doing proper planning, it's not. We have been fortunite so far, but like the NFL the use of Free Agents hit/miss with regress to a man where it is usually less than 50% that really pan out to be more than role fillers.
That is essentially what we are doing though - we’ve been elevating our base talent with 5.8/5.9s then adding in “free agents” from the portal with a handful of top talents from the “draft”. UGA’s “free agents” have not been too good and you wonder if that is because they have been around long enough to hear that players are leaving because they are dissatisfied. Now, defensively, its working great for them but their offense is an absolute train wreck. That WF kid has been horrendous outside the creampuffs. No way he or Beck are any good next year.
 

Thick&ThinG8r

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The only downside to kirby's model is by chasing stars he has begun to lose his state. Not the way we lost ours but by ignoring quality instate talent (six from the state this cycle) he is getting on the bad side of highschool coaches in Georgia. It will eventually catch up to him.
 

TheDouglas78

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That is essentially what we are doing though - we’ve been elevating our base talent with 5.8/5.9s then adding in “free agents” from the portal with a handful of top talents from the “draft”. UGA’s “free agents” have not been too good and you wonder if that is because they have been around long enough to hear that players are leaving because they are dissatisfied. Now, defensively, its working great for them but their offense is an absolute train wreck. That WF kid has been horrendous outside the creampuffs. No way he or Beck are any good next year.

That is the aspect you are missing, we can't continue with the 5.8/5.9 guys (similar to what the Patriots) because those kind of Free Agents aren't gonna be there, especially once teams/organizations rebalance their mode of operations. Compare NFL Free Agency in the mid 90s (started in 93 if I remember correctly) to now. There are 30 5* (premier players) on average in each annual recruiting cycles. In 2018/2019 a lot of schools got luck with the Ole Miss situation, but that isn't a common situation. I think a player like Greenard (spelling) will be more the normal after normalization. 3 star guys who have out produced and have had a coaching change. This is the problem with our current model, we need more of the 6.0 guys in the system early, because they are losing years of development in the system. UGA amassed talent, but their coach is Mushchamp 2.0 which was obvious from the start. The comparisons to Fields and Hurts bad examples (where Burrows might actually be a good example) because first the weak conference, might be able to put GatorJ in at qb in Oklahoma and win the conference, and Ohio State was just adding the cherry on top of a loaded roster that is clearly talent wise already heads and shoulders above 99% of the nation.
 

BMF

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@BMF I am not saying Dan’s strategy is necessarily superior but I am saying you focus too much on the front end of Smart’s. Dan’s strength seems to be what happens after they arrival on campus while Smart’s seems to be getting them there. Short term, its working out for Smart but what happens when Mullen beats him? Would sorta undermine everything that Kirby sells. And I believe that will happen this year. In fact, I’ll add it to the signature so you can give me crap if we lose again.

Other than Clayton, who have we lost that was considered highly rated coming out of HS that did not involve an extenuating circumstance (talking Steele here - do not know the whole situation but JJ as a roommate was just bad all around)? Clayton? And would you agree that we have been a net positive in the transfer portal - we are picking up highly thought of kids and not losing top talent vs. what is happening at UGA?

We lost Justin Watkins - who was a very highly rated WR (due to disciplinary reasons). Langham, who was a 4-star bust....but he was also the only DT signed in that class. John Huggins, another disciplinary problem. Chris Bleich. Randy Russel (medical). That's 5 from one class. Then we lost 5 from the next class. Ten signees who either have left or never made it on campus in two classes.

Also, UGA is currently having the same issues Alabama has and we had under Urban - they're bringing in 5-stars who have to wait behind another 5-star for their turn. So if they leave, it's not "next man up"...it's "next 5-star up". It's sickening. And as far as player development, other than Fromm (which was mostly due to the sh*tty offense) I don't really see many of their players going undeveloped. He's running the Saban model over there, and he ran it for 8 years under Alabama. Also, if we beat them this year I hope you don't think I'm going to be upset. Teams with more talent lose all the time to teams with lesser talent - Alabama lost to Auburn last year, UGA lost to SC, we lost to Kentucky & Missouri two years ago, Urban's 2008 UF lost to Ole Miss in Gainesville!, it goes on and on. We need to consistently win, or at least have a two game winning streak occasionally. We'll see. But their D is absolutely loaded this year.
 

TheDouglas78

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We lost Justin Watkins - who was a very highly rated WR (due to disciplinary reasons). Langham, who was a 4-star bust....but he was also the only DT signed in that class. John Huggins, another disciplinary problem. Chris Bleich. Randy Russel (medical). That's 5 from one class. Then we lost 5 from the next class. Ten signees who either have left or never made it on campus in two classes.

Also, UGA is currently having the same issues Alabama has and we had under Urban - they're bringing in 5-stars who have to wait behind another 5-star for their turn. So if they leave, it's not "next man up"...it's "next 5-star up". It's sickening. And as far as player development, other than Fromm (which was mostly due to the sh*tty offense) I don't really see many of their players going undeveloped. He's running the Saban model over there, and he ran it for 8 years under Alabama. Also, if we beat them this year I hope you don't think I'm going to be upset. Teams with more talent lose all the time to teams with lesser talent - Alabama lost to Auburn last year, UGA lost to SC, we lost to Kentucky & Missouri two years ago, Urban's 2008 UF lost to Ole Miss in Gainesville!, it goes on and on. We need to consistently win, or at least have a two game winning streak occasionally. We'll see. But their D is absolutely loaded this year.

They have also had no problem sending kids to the NFL and replacing them with extremely talented players.
 

BMF

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That is essentially what we are doing though - we’ve been elevating our base talent with 5.8/5.9s then adding in “free agents” from the portal with a handful of top talents from the “draft”. UGA’s “free agents” have not been too good and you wonder if that is because they have been around long enough to hear that players are leaving because they are dissatisfied. Now, defensively, its working great for them but their offense is an absolute train wreck. That WF kid has been horrendous outside the creampuffs. No way he or Beck are any good next year.

The WR who killed us this year, Cager, was a grad transfer. Their 2020 QB is likely a grad transfer, and their starting TE is likely a grad transfer. They've lost 3 really good ones in Fields, Cox, and Mays.
 

SeabeeGator

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That is the aspect you are missing, we can't continue with the 5.8/5.9 guys (similar to what the Patriots) because those kind of Free Agents aren't gonna be there, especially once teams/organizations rebalance their mode of operations. Compare NFL Free Agency in the mid 90s (started in 93 if I remember correctly) to now. There are 30 5* (premier players) on average in each annual recruiting cycles. In 2018/2019 a lot of schools got luck with the Ole Miss situation, but that isn't a common situation. I think a player like Greenard (spelling) will be more the normal after normalization. 3 star guys who have out produced and have had a coaching change. This is the problem with our current model, we need more of the 6.0 guys in the system early, because they are losing years of development in the system. UGA amassed talent, but their coach is Mushchamp 2.0 which was obvious from the start. The comparisons to Fields and Hurts bad examples (where Burrows might actually be a good example) because first the weak conference, might be able to put GatorJ in at qb in Oklahoma and win the conference, and Ohio State was just adding the cherry on top of a loaded roster that is clearly talent wise already heads and shoulders above 99% of the nation.
I’m not missing anything. I get that we want to have instant success but the current model seems to be measured improvement over time. Upgrading to the new base is a very good thing but still has room for improvement- and maybe that’s where Brewster comes in. Start getting to 5.9s with more 6.0s sprinkled in and Mullen’s in striking distance.
 

Durty South Swamp

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Guys, its not as if dan is the only guy out there that knows there's a portal. We can acknowledge weve had some success using it while also acknowledging other's have too. Its not as if we found some secret recruit loophole that is about to put us over the top.
 

SeabeeGator

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We lost Justin Watkins - who was a very highly rated WR (due to disciplinary reasons). Langham, who was a 4-star bust....but he was also the only DT signed in that class. John Huggins, another disciplinary problem. Chris Bleich. Randy Russel (medical). That's 5 from one class. Then we lost 5 from the next class. Ten signees who either have left or never made it on campus in two classes.

Also, UGA is currently having the same issues Alabama has and we had under Urban - they're bringing in 5-stars who have to wait behind another 5-star for their turn. So if they leave, it's not "next man up"...it's "next 5-star up". It's sickening. And as far as player development, other than Fromm (which was mostly due to the sh*tty offense) I don't really see many of their players going undeveloped. He's running the Saban model over there, and he ran it for 8 years under Alabama. Also, if we beat them this year I hope you don't think I'm going to be upset. Teams with more talent lose all the time to teams with lesser talent - Alabama lost to Auburn last year, UGA lost to SC, we lost to Kentucky & Missouri two years ago, Urban's 2008 UF lost to Ole Miss in Gainesville!, it goes on and on. We need to consistently win, or at least have a two game winning streak occasionally. We'll see. But their D is absolutely loaded this year.
But Saban and Meyer rightly hate the portal - it weakens their model. Smart is further disadvantaged - he’s not half the CEO those two are. And that will be his undoing.

And while you regularly trumpet that program, I by no means think you want them to win. Just think you give too much credit to one aspect and not enough to another.
 

SeabeeGator

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Guys, its not as if dan is the only guy out there that knows there's a portal. We can acknowledge weve had some success using it while also acknowledging other's have too. Its not as if we found some secret recruit loophole that is about to put us over the top.
That’s really a great and underreported point - it seems like we do well with the porta but haven’t seen a comparison outside of QBs. Wonder how everyone stacks up?
 

SeabeeGator

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The WR who killed us this year, Cager, was a grad transfer. Their 2020 QB is likely a grad transfer, and their starting TE is likely a grad transfer. They've lost 3 really good ones in Fields, Cox, and Mays.
Again, I think the portal hurts them more than helps and is the opposite for us.
 

TheDouglas78

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I’m not missing anything. I get that we want to have instant success but the current model seems to be measured improvement over time. Upgrading to the new base is a very good thing but still has room for improvement- and maybe that’s where Brewster comes in. Start getting to 5.9s with more 6.0s sprinkled in and Mullen’s in striking distance.

Again, this was the third recruiting cycle under this coaching staff, we are no longer talking about "instant" success. They have had three years to recruit and study players. This argument is flawed thinking on your part. This isn't the transition class, or the bump class. You are trying to disregard where this staff is by saying "instant"....
 

BMF

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That’s really a great and underreported point - it seems like we do well with the porta but haven’t seen a comparison outside of QBs. Wonder how everyone stacks up?

These are just two that went to UGA, there's tons of non-QBs out there who went on to be starters at their new school.

Cager - a WR who killed us

Eli Wolf - TE who made two huge catches against 3rd and Grantham - including a 22 yarder on the final drive
 

GatorMan5K

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They have had three years to recruit and study players. This argument is flawed thinking on your part. This isn't the transition class, or the bump class. You are trying to disregard where this staff is by saying "instant"....

I remember the 10-3 year and the 11-2 year. I just cant seem to remember what his record at florida was in that 3rd year u are talking about. I used to drink.. Maybe i blacked out an entire year.
 

TheDouglas78

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I remember the 10-3 year and the 11-2 year. I just cant seem to remember what his record at florida was in that 3rd year u are talking about. I used to drink.. Maybe i blacked out an entire year.

You know when your teacher told you their are no dumb question just dumb people... they were talking about you.
 

TheDouglas78

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You know when that liquid ran down your moms leg? That was the best part of you.

Dude if you are going to do it, go all out... but much like counting recruiting classes, you came up short. Now take the UAA's balls off your chin... kiss the sack, and ask them if you have been a good boy.
 

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