Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

no1g8r · Mar 30, 2020

I've been writing .20 delta Put Bear Spreads on SPY since the S&P dropped into the 2200's. It won't make me rich, but I just closed the first batch at 50% of it's potential profit after holding for only 10 days, up $50+ per spread on multiple spreads per expiration. I left a lot of cushion, so as long as the S&P didn't drop below 1800 I was going to make the profit.

bradgator2 · Mar 31, 2020

bradgator2 said:
So there is a coworker of mine who I analyze the crap out of all the 401k options we have. We have always semi-joked about what we would do regarding possible election results this fall. What I am pissed at myself about is... I just kinda forgot about all that during this. Some people are furious with some politicians for moving some stuff around a few months ago. Hell, I should have too. I knew better I just didnt even think about it. Now the real struggle is: do I go ahead and cut all loses to prevent any more. With a click of the button, I could move everything to a 0.02% fixed fund. Or just close my eyes and ride it down. I dont mind the new contributions buying into my existing choices.

exactly one week since I posted this...

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 690 points or 3 percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 3.3 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. Last week, the Dow added 13 percent, making for its best week since 1938.“

:lol:

alcoholica · Apr 1, 2020

bradgator2 said:
exactly one week since I posted this...

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 690 points or 3 percent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 3.3 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. Last week, the Dow added 13 percent, making for its best week since 1938.“

RCL is at $26. Div yield at that basis is 12%. If they haven’t already cut dividends, I’m sure they will, and should. But that does give you some insight into where it could go if/when it recovers. Even at a 50% recovery, you would triple your money. Full recovery and you’re looking and some nice div potential

BMF · Apr 1, 2020

Market takes another dive.

SeabeeGator · Apr 1, 2020

BMF said:
Market takes another dive.

I’m glad my changes dont kick in until tomorrow :lol:

BMF · Apr 1, 2020

SeabeeGator said:
I’m glad my changes dont kick in until tomorrow

I seem to always have the opposite luck. My bi-weekly auto invest went in on Monday - so Monday's closing was the price I paid for the mutual fund purchase....and the market promptly dives on Tuesday and Wednesday. Typical....

maheo30 · Apr 1, 2020

alcoholica said:
RCL is at $26. Div yield at that basis is 12%. If they haven’t already cut dividends, I’m sure they will, and should. But that does give you some insight into where it could go if/when it recovers. Even at a 50% recovery, you would triple your money. Full recovery and you’re looking and some nice div potential

I'm fully convinced they are one of those companies that will be back. However, it'll take time. Anyone who buys their stock should be prepared to be in it for the long haul.

SeabeeGator · Apr 1, 2020

BMF said:
I seem to always have the opposite luck. My bi-weekly auto invest went in on Monday - so Monday's closing was the price I paid for the mutual fund purchase....and the market promptly dives on Tuesday and Wednesday. Typical....

I’m doing my best just to let it ride. This is a good point to jump in if you’re optimistic. Basically, I’m hoping Deet is wrong :lol:

FireFoley · Apr 1, 2020

BMF said:
I seem to always have the opposite luck. My bi-weekly auto invest went in on Monday - so Monday's closing was the price I paid for the mutual fund purchase....and the market promptly dives on Tuesday and Wednesday. Typical....

I have heard this often. I am not against anyone who likes or chooses to invests in funds, but as you know you have to put your order in by a certain time and you get the closing NAV price. Have you ever considered having that money go to the money fund or whatever they call the cash portion of the account and then when it looks like it is going to be a down day, you can place the order prior to the cut off time in the afternoon? I know you can't ever pick bottoms, but it is always nice IMO to get stuff on down days, especially funds which won;t go to ZERO, unlike some of the stocks I have owned in my life.

BMF · Apr 1, 2020

FireFoley said:
I have heard this often. I am not against anyone who likes or chooses to invests in funds, but as you know you have to put your order in by a certain time and you get the closing NAV price. Have you ever considered having that money go to the money fund or whatever they call the cash portion of the account and then when it looks like it is going to be a down day, you can place the order prior to the cut off time in the afternoon? I know you can't ever pick bottoms, but it is always nice IMO to get stuff on down days, especially funds which won;t go to ZERO, unlike some of the stocks I have owned in my life.

Well, I suppose you could do that. But I do the auto-invest to ensure it gets in the account and bought....otherwise I may forget or go cheap. If it automatically comes out of my account it guarantees it goes in. However, I do add to it when there's a tanking - or multiple down days. The funds I'm in have a minimum of $50, so I'll often put in $50-100 after several down days.

alcoholica · Apr 1, 2020

maheo30 said:
I'm fully convinced they are one of those companies that will be back. However, it'll take time. Anyone who buys their stock should be prepared to be in it for the long haul.

It think it's pretty low risk tbh. it has to be near its bottom. It it recovers, then it's a huge win a year+ from now. If it struggles and gets bought out, there a good chance a buyout artificially pumps the price up to breakeven or higher. Certainly not a sure thing, but low risk, high reward if you're looking to gamble a bit.

I went all in on an industry index. Planning on its rebound in 12-24 months. I don't really follow the markets enough to really pick out stocks, and I've never liked that approach. Probably because of Enron and WorldCom during my college years along with the tech burst during those times. But if anyone wants to get in the market, now is a great time to just buy some S&P 500 (or similar) and throw it on the shelf, if you aren't deep into it.

BMF · Apr 6, 2020

Does anyone here buy gold or silver? Silver is down to around $15/ounce. I own a precious metals mutual fund through USAA, it's been a mediocre fund at best. Anyhow, I've never understood the buying of actual gold and silver because - when you buy it you pay a premium to the dealer (more than the actual market price) then when you sell it, the same thing - you sell it at a loss (less than the market value) when selling it to a dealer. So right now, if you bought a US Eagles 1oz silver coin, it costs around $24....it would have to go up to $30 or so before you made any profit selling it. What am I missing w/ buying actual gold and silver?

I'm curious about this because we're about to print $2.2 trillion and the value of the dollar is going to drop.

bradgator2 · Apr 6, 2020

BMF said:
Does anyone here buy gold or silver? Silver is down to around $15/ounce. I own a precious metals mutual fund through USAA, it's been a mediocre fund at best. Anyhow, I've never understood the buying of actual gold and silver because - when you buy it you pay a premium to the dealer (more than the actual market price) then when you sell it, the same thing - you sell it at a loss (less than the market value) when selling it to a dealer. So right now, if you bought a US Eagles 1oz silver coin, it costs around $24....it would have to go up to $30 or so before you made any profit selling it. What am I missing w/ buying actual gold and silver?

I'm curious about this because we're about to print $2.2 trillion and the value of the dollar is going to drop.

We have a thread on this in here. My beef has always been the 20% cut on both buying and selling. About two weeks ago, silver went down to like 12 bucks for a few days. Thought about grabbing some as there was no reason for that sudden drop.

Detroitgator · Apr 6, 2020

BMF said:
Does anyone here buy gold or silver? Silver is down to around $15/ounce. I own a precious metals mutual fund through USAA, it's been a mediocre fund at best. Anyhow, I've never understood the buying of actual gold and silver because - when you buy it you pay a premium to the dealer (more than the actual market price) then when you sell it, the same thing - you sell it at a loss (less than the market value) when selling it to a dealer. So right now, if you bought a US Eagles 1oz silver coin, it costs around $24....it would have to go up to $30 or so before you made any profit selling it. What am I missing w/ buying actual gold and silver?

I'm curious about this because we're about to print $2.2 trillion and the value of the dollar is going to drop.

Your last paragraph is why there is such a high price for actual, PHYSICAL, precious metals over spot price vs paper right now. Guess what would happen if you tried to take physical delivery for an actual contract of gold or silver right now?

BMF · Apr 7, 2020

Detroitgator said:
Your last paragraph is why there is such a high price for actual, PHYSICAL, precious metals over spot price vs paper right now. Guess what would happen if you tried to take physical delivery for an actual contract of gold or silver right now?

What would happen? I'm not following. I've never bought physical gold or silver.

FireFoley · Apr 9, 2020

Well money is free now. The FED is buying everything even going into junk bonds. Hell all of us can now qualify from a direct loan from the FED. I am not sure who was the one talking about hyper inflation in a few years, but that has clearly elevated to the head seat at the table. I have been waiting for years for the textbook to be written regarding all that crap from 10+ years ago. Well the book just got another 20 chapters added to it. I will be long gone before that thing ever gets published.

Detroitgator · Apr 9, 2020

FireFoley said:
Well money is free now. The FED is buying everything even going into junk bonds. Hell all of us can now qualify from a direct loan from the FED. I am not sure who was the one talking about hyper inflation in a few years, but that has clearly elevated to the head seat at the table. I have been waiting for years for the textbook to be written regarding all that crap from 10+ years ago. Well the book just got another 20 chapters added to it. I will be long gone before that thing ever gets published.

As I said, the Fed is buying the WORLD... literally. And these small business loans? Nooses.

FireFoley · Apr 9, 2020

Detroitgator said:
As I said, the Fed is buying the WORLD... literally. And these small business loans? Nooses.

We have entered the Japan zone and I believe the JCB owns over 50% of the stock in Japanese companies. Well that is the next step for our FED. I love how they justify the need for this and some of it may be true, but @Detroitgator is spot on. Remember what happened 18 or so months ago when the FED tried to begin to pare down their balance sheet. Well it took less than selling 1/10th of 1% of their holdings and the market threw a temper tantrum. Not sure how many of you are old enough to remember that wonderful product known as The Roach Motel. Well the tag line of the product now applies to the FED. The Roach Motel: "You can check in but you can never check out"

BMF · Apr 9, 2020

FireFoley said:
Well money is free now. The FED is buying everything even going into junk bonds. Hell all of us can now qualify from a direct loan from the FED. I am not sure who was the one talking about hyper inflation in a few years, but that has clearly elevated to the head seat at the table. I have been waiting for years for the textbook to be written regarding all that crap from 10+ years ago. Well the book just got another 20 chapters added to it. I will be long gone before that thing ever gets published.

This is why I brought up gold & silver. Will it shoot up?

FireFoley · Apr 9, 2020

BMF said:
This is why I brought up gold & silver. Will it shoot up?

That is the majority thought, perhaps gold more than silver. And gold has been moving up as of late, but remember a few weeks ago when everything was going down, including AAA rated debt and gold? People were asking why? That was b/c everyone was selling everything to raise cash, margin calls or not. Well I am not much of a gold bug, but that was the time to begin accumulating those assets if your view is the hyper inflation theory. Perhaps we will have another opportunity after the sugar high of the Japanese Central Bank (oops sorry, the FED) actions wears off, and we are able to reassess actually what it all means. Supporting risk assets is not quite the same as having the economy back up and running.

Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

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