Mortgage rates

Concrete Helmet

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Yes mortgage rates are awesome for those who understand how to use them like you just did. but the problem is and always will be those who are constantly re-fying to a higher number to take cash out and spend it stupidly. Or those who think every tick down in mortgage rates means they can go up another 10K in purchase price.
Lets face it, the gov. is simply providing most people a huge bilge pump that keeps pumping water out of a vessel that needs a hull repair(responsibility/saving/investing)...most of those that can't swim keep making their way past the lifeboats(savings and investing) to the aft forcing more water in the opening and straining the pump to the point of failure. When she gives out down goes the ship(economy/housing market/property values)...those standing on the bow and able to swim to the life boats will then collect all of their devalued flotsam and begin to pad their bounty....

Wash, rinse.....repeat.
 

NVGator

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30 Year Mortgage rate trend through May


Screen Shot 2020-07-07 at 1.57.41 PM.png
 

Concrete Helmet

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30 Year Mortgage rate trend through May


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So if Joe wins it's
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If the Don win it's
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Zambo

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My wife has locked about a dozen VA loans recently at 2.5%

Its crazy.
 

bradgator2

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You know it is crazy when I currently have a 15 yr at 3.00%..... and I am running the numbers to refi.
 

FireFoley

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You know it is crazy when I currently have a 15 yr at 3.00%..... and I am running the numbers to refi.

Good luck with that. problem is it might take the banks a long time to get to a legitimate refi, with all the forbearances going on. And forbearances are not eligible for refi's so I can see it now when the DUMS get in, not only will they extend the forbearance period for eternity, they will probably force banks to refi those forbeared loans to a lower rate and probably force them to write down the principal balance. All the while all those people who are/were current will just be a typical schnook!
 

Concrete Helmet

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Good luck with that. problem is it might take the banks a long time to get to a legitimate refi, with all the forbearances going on.
:headslap:Were still closing 10-12 full title refi's everyday and purchases have picked back up....the only thing the the banks are slow on right now is HELOC's .....
 

NVGator

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:headslap:Were still closing 10-12 full title refi's everyday and purchases have picked back up....the only thing the the banks are slow on right now is HELOC's .....
Jumbos have dried up as well. Had a Buyer somehow close a 90/10/10 earlier this months right before they quit.
 

Concrete Helmet

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Jumbos have dried up as well. Had a Buyer somehow close a 90/10/10 earlier this months right before they quit.
That's pretty understandable almost the same as lender not wanting to get sucked into a large HELOC or 2nd just in case the property values dip.

:lol: In other unrelated but fun real estate/title news one of the purchases we closed today was on a seller LLC investment property. The private lender(LLC) is getting a 8.5% on a $600K 1 year balloon and holding the buyers(also LLC) free and clear 300K rental property as collateral which happens to be in another county.....good times listening to 6 Attorneys and their d!ck measuring contest....so glad I was out taking care of one of the rentals instead.
 

NVGator

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@Concrete Helmet , we have a Seller that is going to list next week. Owns it free & clear. He’s considering Owner Carry w/ 20% down, 4.5% and a 5 year balloon. He’s moving to Hawaii. Could appreciate the monthly income but understands Jumbos are tough to come by right now. This is a $1M Listing.
 

Concrete Helmet

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@Concrete Helmet , we have a Seller that is going to list next week. Owns it free & clear. He’s considering Owner Carry w/ 20% down, 4.5% and a 5 year balloon. He’s moving to Hawaii. Could appreciate the monthly income but understands Jumbos are tough to come by right now. This is a $1M Listing.
Nice listing. Solid thinking but with Jumbo's going scarce the seller could probably get 5.0 or maybe more on that balloon. So much versatility with free and clear property it is going to be one of the few places left for retirees seeking income or wealth building with bond rates being so low.
How's the market in your area generally speaking? Our starter market is still climbing rather quickly here(200k-400k)the higher end stuff is a little flatter.
 

NVGator

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How's the market in your area generally speaking? Our starter market is still climbing rather quickly here(200k-400k)the higher end stuff is a little flatter.

Same here. Median home price here was $407k in June. Anything between 300k-500k will typically have multiple offers and less than 300k are schitholes. Anything over $750k will sit for a while and over 1M has flattened a lot. We just don't have inventory is our problem.
 

FireFoley

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Same here. Median home price here was $407k in June. Anything between 300k-500k will typically have multiple offers and less than 300k are schitholes. Anything over $750k will sit for a while and over 1M has flattened a lot. We just don't have inventory is our problem.

I think it is the same everywhere. in south Florida, anything that is considered affordable 500K and under usually sells very quickly. Above 500K can sit for quite a while depending on the upgrades. there is no existing home inventory anywhere. The cheaper stuff below 300K goes quickly and gets bid up. Same thing happened when I sold my place in Gainesburger. It was in the affordable range and went quickly and increased 40% in the 4 years I owned it. Things a rung up were a little stagnant. but all over the country prices are compressing, mainly do to lower rates. If someone is topped at say 300K and rates drop 10 basis points, they will bid up that 300K home to 320K. They still can't go to the next level so it causes the low end to increase rapidly, thus price compression.
 

UFHealthGator

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I just refinanced my primary home from 3.75% 15 year to 2.8% 30 year with 1400 in lender credits. Now my prior "primary home" I turned into an investment property / AirBNB and has a 4.125% 30 year physician loan (I did not put any down payment on it, but still don't have to pay PMI). Still having a hard time beating that rate if I am to refinance it as an investment property, not to mention I have to bring my equity up to 20% of the current home value (currently sitting at about 15%).

Anyone know a good investment property lender? The rate has to be much lower to just make up for closing costs and the lost opportunity cost in investing the equity in the market.
 

BMF

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Same here. Median home price here was $407k in June. Anything between 300k-500k will typically have multiple offers and less than 300k are schitholes. Anything over $750k will sit for a while and over 1M has flattened a lot. We just don't have inventory is our problem.

You're in Reno, right? I was looking at property there a couple of years ago and couldn't believe how much it's shot up. Last time I was there I spoke w/ some locals and it seems a ton of people from California (SF, SJ area) have moved there over the last 10 years...driving up prices.

We've been looking in south Tampa and I'm mind blown how expensive a 1500sf house is - it's about the same price as the DC market, which is unbelievable. And the same thing, anything under $300k-$350k is a sh*thole and/or needs a ton of work. It's very discouraging. I figured I'd cash in on my DC property and make a major upgrade in Florida - now it looks like it'll be somewhat of a lateral move, unless we go into the $800k-$900k range (and I really don't want to do that). So we may look at St. Pete or try to find a lot for under $250K to build on.
 

FireFoley

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You're in Reno, right? I was looking at property there a couple of years ago and couldn't believe how much it's shot up. Last time I was there I spoke w/ some locals and it seems a ton of people from California (SF, SJ area) have moved there over the last 10 years...driving up prices.

We've been looking in south Tampa and I'm mind blown how expensive a 1500sf house is - it's about the same price as the DC market, which is unbelievable. And the same thing, anything under $300k-$350k is a sh*thole and/or needs a ton of work. It's very discouraging. I figured I'd cash in on my DC property and make a major upgrade in Florida - now it looks like it'll be somewhat of a lateral move, unless we go into the $800k-$900k range (and I really don't want to do that). So we may look at St. Pete or try to find a lot for under $250K to build on.

I am in the same boat @BMF. We have talked about it as I am in southeast Florida and it is the same as Tampa. I know your time is less than the last time we spoke about it, but I still say when all the free money stops and the Kung Flu shakes out, you will see a drop. Might be 24 months, but gotta wait for the forbearances to stop and evictions to be allowed. Not sure what your time frame is now.
 

BMF

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I am in the same boat @BMF. We have talked about it as I am in southeast Florida and it is the same as Tampa. I know your time is less than the last time we spoke about it, but I still say when all the free money stops and the Kung Flu shakes out, you will see a drop. Might be 24 months, but gotta wait for the forbearances to stop and evictions to be allowed. Not sure what your time frame is now.

I've been saying for (at least) two years, "It's gotta drop anytime now!" "It can't keep going up!" And it's just kept on climbing. I don't understand where the money is coming from in Tampa for a 1500sf 60 year old house to be listed for $650K. It makes no sense. Where are the jobs? I live in DC, so I understand it here - plus the inventory is super low. But Tampa?

I retire Sept 1st, start at the Treasury on Sept 9th and will see how things shake out. I'm trying to get into a position where I can telework - so that we can move to Florida - and I'd likely have to fly up to DC 4 to 8 times a year (or more) on my own dime - which I'd be fine with. That way I could hang onto a mid-six figure/year job, and work primarily from home. I'm hoping by Feb/March we can put the house and cabin up for sale.
 

FireFoley

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I've been saying for (at least) two years, "It's gotta drop anytime now!" "It can't keep going up!" And it's just kept on climbing. I don't understand where the money is coming from in Tampa for a 1500sf 60 year old house to be listed for $650K. It makes no sense. Where are the jobs? I live in DC, so I understand it here - plus the inventory is super low. But Tampa?

I retire Sept 1st, start at the Treasury on Sept 9th and will see how things shake out. I'm trying to get into a position where I can telework - so that we can move to Florida - and I'd likely have to fly up to DC 4 to 8 times a year (or more) on my own dime - which I'd be fine with. That way I could hang onto a mid-six figure/year job, and work primarily from home. I'm hoping by Feb/March we can put the house and cabin up for sale.

I have asked the same question. The last house I sold down here was 2015. People were from NY and they had sold a place for a MIL and dropped 1/2 MIL on mine cash, so to them it was heaven. I still think you have a lot pf people in that boat where they sell high in the northeast, and what we considered a stretch, they think they are getting a deal. Add in the first/second timers only finding shyt under 500K and they have to step up. With sub 3% mortgage rate, they are able to force themselves into 600K and spend 40-50% of their income on a mortgage. Not ideal but they are doing it. I still believe that when the unemployment rate stays at 8-10% for a whole in the next 18 months, things will flatten out and start to come down.
 

BMF

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I have asked the same question. The last house I sold down here was 2015. People were from NY and they had sold a place for a MIL and dropped 1/2 MIL on mine cash, so to them it was heaven. I still think you have a lot pf people in that boat where they sell high in the northeast, and what we considered a stretch, they think they are getting a deal. Add in the first/second timers only finding shyt under 500K and they have to step up. With sub 3% mortgage rate, they are able to force themselves into 600K and spend 40-50% of their income on a mortgage. Not ideal but they are doing it. I still believe that when the unemployment rate stays at 8-10% for a whole in the next 18 months, things will flatten out and start to come down.

I'm right leaning (politically) but I don't understand why the interest rates are so staying low low - policy wise I think it's going to lead to a housing crash (not as bad as the previous one, but a crash nonetheless). But wtf do I know? I've been saying there'd be a correction for about two full years now!

I do think people are stretching their incomes. I was hoping to be mortgage free after I leave DC, but we'll probably end up in a $300-$400K mortgage (which kind of scares me because I don't want to work much more than 4 to 6 more years).
 

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