- Aug 1, 2018
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That was a good decision as it's currently at $52.80 and trending up.
(edit: don't worry about the 30.27 as you're still making $$. Just not as much as you COULD have. :wink:)
Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?
- Thread starter ThreatMatrix
- Start date
That was a good decision as it's currently at $52.80 and trending up.
(edit: don't worry about the 30.27 as you're still making $$. Just not as much as you COULD have. :wink:)
- Jul 15, 2014
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I'm going to give you standard answers...
- Depends on your time horizon and what your goal was in holding those S&P positions. Yes, I expect that big leg down, but it will be followed by an even bigger Wave 1 up after that.
- Depends on your tax planning.
- You can hold all and wait it out...
- You can sell some of it and use that cash to hedge the rest by buying an inverse ETF for the ride down, then reverse that trade again...
- You can hold all and if you have dry powder, use that to hedge the down and then reverse the trade...
- Nov 19, 2014
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I noticed this as it has lagged gold on a relative basis for quite some time. but the dollar is getting weaker by the day which should help the metals price wise. but dollar weakness should also help the price of oil, but I think oil will be left out of a dollar weakness rally this time. Way too much oil out there and easy to get it relative to in the past. any thoughts that oil will lag relative to the metals if the dollar continues to weaken?
- Jul 15, 2014
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Yeah, the gold:silver ratio has been wayyyyy out of historical whack.... it was as high as 1:100+ and is now shifting, hopefully (for me) it will get back somewhere near "historical norms" around 1:20.
As for oil, this strays into the "new normal" and "everything is distorted by the Fed" (and it is). I still say they will do ANYTHING to keep Oil price up, even higher, and I mean anything, even war if necessary, so again, I don't think "normal" relationships are relevant anymore other than that when the normal relationship kicks in, the Fed IMMEDIATELY acts to manipulate, make sense?
- Nov 19, 2014
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I think so
. So the new normal is the FED is in the game WWWWWWWAAAAAAYYYYYYY beyond full employment and stable prices. Look they made their first purchases of corporate bonds a few weeks ago and what company bonds did they buy? ATT, APPLE, and other large companies who have had ZERO problems raising money. Those companies can issue all the paper they want at ridiculously low rates without any problem. They don;t need the FED buying their paper.
- Jul 15, 2014
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My God man! It's like you have read NOTHING that I have posted going back to the beginning of this crisis!!!!I think so
I'll do a quick break down:
- The Fed abandoned their "dual mandate" starting 20 years ago, but not in all forms. Until Covid, this was only "conspiracy speak" because the Fed (and all central banks) denied it and said they were not doing the things you mentioned, but they were, just through intermediary institutions, so they could say "we" are not doing it.
- With Covid, it is no longer "conspiracy speak." As I said, between Mnuchen, Kudlow, and at least one actual Fed President per week (often per DAY now), they are straight up admitting to buying EVERYTHING, DIRECTLY, and have unlimited authority and ability to do so.... they are now straight up admitting to it, and that's not just my interpretation of it, they are stating it openly and clearly.
- Oh, and the Fed, our Fed, isn't just doing this domestically, they are doing it globally through partner central banks. Again, they did this with all the QEs/Twist as well, but did not admit it openly. They now openly admit how much they've funneled to foreign central banks... it's not tin foil hat/zero hedge anymore, it's from their mouths.
- The ONLY thing they basically have not admitted to openly yet, but is a fact, is that they run two books.
- As I said at the beginning of all this, the Fed is buying the WORLD, not just the US, openly, not in conspiracy theory land. Even the BA debt issue... that was trumpeted as "BA didn't need the Fed/Treasure, they did it on their own!" Are you kidding me? It's 100% backed.
- Nov 19, 2014
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My God man! It's like you have read NOTHING that I have posted going back to the beginning of this crisis!!!!
I'll do a quick break down:
Man, I get EXACTLY where you are mentally right now... it was me from 2009-2015, then I said, "Fuk it, I can't fight these guys, but I can play along and reap while simultaneously preparing for what has to come." I don't try to time when the music will stop anymore, I have my chair ready, but I'll keep playing the game and trading the market (NOT the news) in front of me until the day that music stops! ;)
- The Fed abandoned their "dual mandate" starting 20 years ago, but not in all forms. Until Covid, this was only "conspiracy speak" because the Fed (and all central banks) denied it and said they were not doing the things you mentioned, but they were, just through intermediary institutions, so they could say "we" are not doing it.
- With Covid, it is no longer "conspiracy speak." As I said, between Mnuchen, Kudlow, and at least one actual Fed President per week (often per DAY now), they are straight up admitting to buying EVERYTHING, DIRECTLY, and have unlimited authority and ability to do so.... they are now straight up admitting to it, and that's not just my interpretation of it, they are stating it openly and clearly.
- Oh, and the Fed, our Fed, isn't just doing this domestically, they are doing it globally through partner central banks. Again, they did this with all the QEs/Twist as well, but did not admit it openly. They now openly admit how much they've funneled to foreign central banks... it's not tin foil hat/zero hedge anymore, it's from their mouths.
- The ONLY thing they basically have not admitted to openly yet, but is a fact, is that they run two books.
- As I said at the beginning of all this, the Fed is buying the WORLD, not just the US, openly, not in conspiracy theory land. Even the BA debt issue... that was trumpeted as "BA didn't need the Fed/Treasure, they did it on their own!" Are you kidding me? It's 100% backed.
Sorry that you did not pick up on my facetious vibe. I will make it painfully obvious the next time
- Jul 15, 2014
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Oh.... never mind! ;)Sorry that you did not pick up on my facetious vibe. I will make it painfully obvious the next time
- Jul 29, 2014
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When in Rome.....yada, yada, yada....just remember that if the Vandals don't show by early November to throw almost everything but the kitchen sink back over the wall cuz a Trump victory(and vaccine) and that mofo DJ is going 40.......before Santa gets here.
- Nov 19, 2014
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Well one of the mantras I have always said about people in tough times is that they will pay certain bills to keep them functioning. I always said that the mobile device bill will get paid so people can play video games, watch TV or whatever it is called and do other useless shyt. Well this is another sign that the shyt is really hitting the fan. Reading the ATT earnings report and ATT says 338,000 customer stopped paying their mobile device bill during the Kung Flu. Now 338K is a drop in the bucket to the total # of accounts, but I think it has to be considered a tea leaf when looking at this big picture.
- Jul 29, 2014
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- Nov 19, 2014
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Stopped paying is not the same as switching carriers. Stop paying = delinquency.
Oh I forgot your line of work, since their is mortgage forbearance, perhaps you think there is also cell phone bill forbearance.
- Jul 29, 2014
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Whatever you say L.....or is it whatever they say?......hmmmmm skimmin is winnin' and I'm winnin both ways...Stopped paying is not the same as switching carriers. Stop paying = delinquency.
Oh I forgot your line of work, since their is mortgage forbearance, perhaps you think there is also cell phone bill forbearance.
- Jul 29, 2014
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It's fun beating the Communist tech controllers with what the Fed has done.....their playing "up" game will make a fortune for those who can see through it....like playing ping pong really.
- Jul 15, 2014
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Nothing has changed since this update. Not everything goes straight up, and the pullback matches what I said in #5 above... pullback towards the daily 13 & 21 EMAs (between 3185 and 3210, it's at 3202 as I type this) before continuing move up next week. As long as we close today above 3180, we are still on the bullish path. The pullback in the Dow Transports was even shallower, which is also bullish bias. Will have new update Sunday night.
Depending on how the day goes, I may ADD to a few positions near the close in anticipation of more up next week, but, as I said, this is not the smartest area/time to be adding to holdings. If we hold 2180 today, next week should start the run up to 3400+ before the big pull back, but there is no telling what will happen as we move up to fill the gap around 3300 let alone approach all time highs, so better to sit and wait.
- Nov 19, 2014
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Nice mention of the transports. Dont know if you are a believer in Dow Theory or not and it does not matter, but if the S&P does violate and if large tech takes a bigger leg down, I wonder if any of the talking heads will go back to Dow Theory thesis. For years most of the talking heads have said Dow Theory is outdated and times have changed. Probably so but always nice to see it brought up.
Lastly, I am watching the 10yr. The lowest close ever was right around 54 basis points. We are stcuk at 58ish, which is in the ball park. Intra day low yield was much lower but a close below 54 basis points might raise a few eyebrows.
- Jul 15, 2014
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Yeah, one of the guys I follow does address Dow Theory... I consider a lot of things. I don't think it's so much that it is "outdated," once again, I just think that something like "sector rotation" gets largely obliterated with the complete market manipulation.
As for the 10yr, it is one of the things I stress a lot, and like you, was worried when it pulled all the way back to 54, and they are clearly trying to stabilize that... it's critical to their "game."
- Jul 15, 2014
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Nothing has changed... The important number to watch this week is that S&P does not close below 3180. As long as we hold that, bulls are still in control.
@FireFoley I've been playing around with Dow Theory Rule of 7's calculator... Pretty interesting.
@FireFoley I've been playing around with Dow Theory Rule of 7's calculator... Pretty interesting.
- Nov 8, 2017
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Thank you for your analysis Detroit! Straight forward easy to decipher, much appreciated.
- Nov 19, 2014
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Now you are going into the way back machine :). The "new" crowd just buys AMZN, TSLA. ZM, etc. and all the other companies that don;t make money and watch them go up. Be careful as if you fiddle around with Dow theory too long you might be trying to buy Bethy Steel and Eastman Kodak, LOL.
