Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

"As the Fed gives up on the Phillips Curve, decades after it proved to be useful, is that a contrarian signal that the Fed ought to be, again, grading on that curve and being more, rather than less, vigilant about incipient inflation?

A question only time will answer. The answer, as always, will be found in the message of the markets. Right now, the message favors the Fed’s historic policy change.

But that’s now … bond yields, gold, silver and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities may be telling an emergent tale that is not what other markets currently expect."--- Ron Insana

FireFoley said:

"As the Fed gives up on the Phillips Curve, decades after it proved to be useful, is that a contrarian signal that the Fed ought to be, again, grading on that curve and being more, rather than less, vigilant about incipient inflation?

A question only time will answer. The answer, as always, will be found in the message of the markets. Right now, the message favors the Fed’s historic policy change.

But that’s now … bond yields, gold, silver and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities may be telling an emergent tale that is not what other markets currently expect."--- Ron "Always Late to the Party of Reality" Insana

Click to expand...

FIFY ;)

10 yr bumping up against 79 basis points tonight. Dare I see it tomorrow with a .8 handle, LOL?

FireFoley said:

Well well well what I thought would take 3-6 months sort of happened today. After listening to Powell blather on about nothing, the knee jerk reaction was driving the 10yr, down to 64 basis points. Then I guess the smart people entered the room and started thinking like me and @Detroitgator have mused about and said oh shyt, this is not as sweet as it looks and drove the 10yr up to around 75 basis points. Okay not that high a rate, but a large % move. Will it reverse? time will tell.

But here is what the FED said without saying it. We are not raising the overnight rate in the next 10+ years we don;t give a shyt if inflation goes to 10%. We have no idea how to measure inflation b/c we don;t see any. Well that is b/c you don;t take into account rising stock prices, rising bond prices, rising metals prices, rising house prices (okay they use something called owner's equivalent rent). There is plenty of inflation, just not a lot that goes into the CPI (which the elecronic prices help keep that down and oil is dead.). They admitted to having no idea what full employment is and why when it was sub 4% wages went no where. That is b/c it was closer to 10% you imbecil's and now that you think it is 10% it is actually 20%. You have 28 million getting unemployment help and another 40 or so Million out of the labor force but able to work, but they don;t get counted.

So now what. The treasury is auctioning record amounts of debt, so the shorter maturities will probably be well bid b/c short rates are going no where. But if any "inflation" does rear its head, then the longer rates will go up b/c their is no way short rates will move b/c the FED has said so. So if that happens it causes borrowing costs for companies to go up b/c of more rate competition. So all of sudden these companies that do not make any money and actually lose hundreds of millions of dollars a year look a little less attractive. I still do not know what the timetable is for this action and I do not think it is today, but if the 10, 20 and 30 rates do continue to rise it will be quite interesting how the market views it.

As an aside, not anything too technical but I think the most recent high settlement in the 10yr has been about 72 basis points. so a settle above that could be something just to keep a short term eye on.

Click to expand...

You forgot to mention that the Fed will now make direct payments

FireFoley said:

10 yr bumping up against 79 basis points tonight. Dare I see it tomorrow with a .8 handle, LOL?

Click to expand...

The answer to my own question is NO, Just that sniff and Treasuries go into reverse again back to 74 basis points.

I just heard a good interview about inflation and this guy said it very well. "It's not that we are not creating any inflation. We are. We are just not creating good inflation".

FireFoley said:

The answer to my own question is NO, Just that sniff and Treasuries go into reverse again back to 74 basis points.

I just heard a good interview about inflation and this guy said it very well. "It's not that we are not creating any inflation. We are. We are just not creating good inflation".

Click to expand...

You're doing it AGAIN!!!! ;) Silly man, you still seem to think this is MARKET driven instead of being directly managed!

Along with the comments about "direct payments" to companies/sectors (but no small biz), the Fed confirmed, again, what they are doing and in order to manage this printing of dollars, they gotta directly (and indirectly) buy debt and that is what is managing the 10 yr, not any silly notion of a "market"! ;) Too low? Bump. Too high? Manage... keep it in a bandwidth. We are so ****ed, but it is all massively market (not economy) positive, so stop trying to fight it! ;)

PS I'm on your side with all of this... liberal use of emojis is because I understand your pain... lived it from 2010-2015, now I'm just making gobs of money because I now understand how to play their game and not fight it with logic like I'm a fukkin Dr. Spock! ;)

@FireFoley

The single biggest thing the Fed said cryptically yesterday is: "We are going to kill the dollar as it is today."

I said that was part of the overall goal early on in these threads when we crashed in March, but I don't push it much because it's too much for most (including me) to absorb as truth.

Detroitgator said:

@FireFoley

The single biggest thing the Fed said cryptically yesterday is: "We are going to kill the dollar as it is today."

I said that was part of the overall goal early on in these threads when we crashed in March, but I don't push it much because it's too much for most (including me) to absorb as truth.

Click to expand...

Even though it is still over my head... I think I get you are saying. Question is... what do "we" about it. I'm not really talking in the next few months. Or even years. But more regarding... 10, 20 30 years from now.

bradgator2 said:

Even though it is still over my head... I think I get you are saying. Question is... what do "we" about it. I'm not really talking in the next few months. Or even years. But more regarding... 10, 20 30 years from now.

Click to expand...

Mannnnnn... yer pulling me into tinfoil hat land, but it is no longer that. We moved from things 10 years ago that we KNEW the Fed was doing, but would not admit publicly, to today, where they are flat out stating that they have "started" doing them (but have been since QE 1).

Your timeline is your problem... we are talking less than 10 years, maybe 3-5, maybe 2 or less. Don't know, stopped trying to time these things and only take advantage of what's in front of me. The only "antidote" to any new currency/revaluing the dollar is POSSESSING (as opposed to having a mere paper claim to something, that's a "derivative") hard assets, like land/real estate, precious metals, precious artwork, true collector cars... and yes, even crypto currency. If you've seen the price rise in true precious artwork (like originals of true collector artwork) and true collector cars (like say Jay Leno has), they've gone through the roof for 10 straight years because "smart money" understands... Even Jay-Z has it in the song Story of OJ (there are a LOT of VERY SMART rap lyrics regarding business, believe it or not):

The items I listed are more "insurance" than "investments," even if they go up 1000% in unrealized gain... they are more a measure of the loss in value of the dollar over time. We can obviously make more dollars, we cannot make more real estate, artwork, cars from 1962, and can only mine so much metal or bitcoin (but I know, bitcoin scares me too, but I own a "bit").

So what can the average person do? Yes, I'm going to use his name, but lboy alllllways talked about how "diversified" his portfolio was... but it wasn't diversified at all. He was 100% invested in paper derivatives of things priced in dollars. Most people are. Owning precious metals or real estate funds is not the same as owning precious metals or real estate. I don't expect people to do what I did, but I think you'd be a fool to not have 10% (more if you want, but I'm trying to sound realistic/palatable here) of your money in actual, physically possessed, precious metals and yes, a bit of bitcoin, but definitely precious metals. Gold is "safer/more stable" than silver, and doesn't take up much space.

That's just my take. Y'all think it's bougie, I'm like, it's fine. But I'm tryin' to give you a million dollars worth of game for nine ninety-nine ;)

Detroitgator said:

You wanna know what's more important than throwin' away money at a strip club? Credit
You ever wonder why Jewish people own all the property in America? This how they did it
Financial freedom my only hope
**** livin' rich and dyin' broke
I bought some artwork for one million
Two years later, that **** worth two million
Few years later, that **** worth eight million
I can't wait to give this **** to my children
Y'all think it's bougie, I'm like, it's fine
But I'm tryin' to give you a million dollars worth of game for nine ninety-nine
I turned that two to a four, four to an eight
I turned my life into a nice first week release date, mm
Y'all out here still takin' advances, huh?
Me and my niggas takin' real chances, uh
Y'all on the 'gram holdin' money to your ear
There's a disconnect, we don't call that money over here, yeah

Click to expand...

Damn DG went all Poop Dog on us.....

Since 1970 the government has been taking debt(owning) out of the hands of the people....
Every "rich guy" I've ever known has always had his money spread out into diversified "investments" including collectibles, metals/antiques, cash, RE and of course paper(stocks/bonds)...regardless of how he made his money. Now it makes perfect sense.

Concrete Helmet said:

Damn DG went all Poop Dog on us.....

Since 1971 the government has been taking debt(owning) out of the hands of the people....
Every "rich guy" I've ever known has always had his money spread out into diversified "investments" including collectibles, metals/antiques, cash, RE and of course paper(stocks/bonds)...regardless of how he made his money. Now it makes perfect sense.

Click to expand...

FIFY ;)

The number one lesson I learned from a self-made guy with a net worth of $400M (in 2002)... and I think Kiyosaki said something similar: "Everyone I know that has my net worth either made it in real estate, or ended up putting it in real estate."

More wise rappin... Dubs was shocked when I quoted this... I give you, Yo Gotti's life rulez...

These big homie rules
I give my lil' homie jewels
Some **** they can use
You give your lil' homie tools
And tell 'em go do some **** that you wouldn't do
You breaking big homie rules
Big homie rules, this a big homie move
'Cause this what big homies do
Never fold, lead by example
Never let nothing come between the family
That's a big homie move, a big homie move
These are big homie rules, big homie rules
Rule number one, believe in your dreams (okay)
Always understand there's more than you, it's a team (what else?)
Rule number two, niggas bitches off limits
We don't do that in the family, no distractions while we winning
And rule three is kinda sensitive to me (what's that?)
This table full of plates, we make sure everybody eats
And communicate your issues, we can agree to disagree (I feel you)
But talking family business outside the family, that ain't G (you a real one)
Ain't no rats in here, so ain't no leaks (ain't no bitches)
I'm my brothers keeper, **** these freaks (**** these bitches)
And rule number four, if you ever get fronted
Despite what you hearing, always pay their money
And rule five, this the only rule I don't really like
Put a snake with a snake, get a bite for a bite
And rule six, you must protect the brand with your life
I'd rather help you get a million, than help you get a strike
And do you understand your publishing? (Not really)
Whether you rapping or you hustling, treat that like real estate and pay the government (okay)
Family first, money second
You ain't taking care of your family, I just can't respect it
These big homie rules
I give my lil' homie jewels
Some **** they can use
You give your lil' homie tools
And tell 'em go do some **** that you wouldn't do
You breaking big homie rules
Big homie rules, this a big homie move
'Cause this what big homies do
Never fold, lead by example
Never let nothing come between the family
That's a big homie move, a big homie move
These are big homie rules, big homie rules
Ain't no jealousy in the crew, 'cause if I got it, then you got it
Lil' homie got a problem, big homie solve it
Niggas talkin' boss talk, ain't never been a soldier
I just wanna cook up one more time to get some closure
When it come to this beef ****, it is what it is
Homie don't **** with you, ****, it is what it is
They call it investment, I just believe in my dog
Bust it down how you wanna, I just wanna see you ball
You ain't a boss, you a mistake, nigga
How they put you in position when you fake, nigga?
You lie to your team, you sell your niggas dreams
When there's war somehow you always in between
The family and the opposition
Me, I like this nigga but know my position
So, it's **** 'em and it's **** 'em forever
I take loyalty to a whole 'nother level
I get the information, pass it down
My homies know, that's on my life, I always held 'em down
Last rule, if you gon' be a big homie
Treat your niggas with respect, not like a lil' homie
These big homie rules
I give my lil' homie jewels
Some **** they can use
You give your lil' homie tools
And tell 'em go do some **** that you wouldn't do
You breaking big homie rules
Big homie rules, this a big homie move
'Cause this what big homies do
Never fold, lead by example
Never let nothing come between the family
That's a big homie move, a big homie move
These are big homie rules, big homie rules

@FireFoley

Bullard on CNBC this afternoon: "The recession is over." Kudlow said essentially the same today. Bullard also said that the FED could "tolerate higher inflation for a long period of time."

WTF does that even mean? De-pression? Cuz there is no economy. Even have the airlines making an extortion move. As for tolerating inflation, glad to know that the Fed can tolerate it for a long period of time... hope everyone else can.

Finally, we had PIMCO say today (and by "PIMCO", I'm guessing that means El-Erian, and I like listening to him when he talks) that the US dollar free fall is just starting.

Detroitgator said:

@FireFoley

Bullard on CNBC this afternoon: "The recession is over." Kudlow said essentially the same today. Bullard also said that the FED could "tolerate higher inflation for a long period of time."

WTF does that even mean? De-pression? Cuz there is no economy. Even have the airlines making an extortion move. As for tolerating inflation, glad to know that the Fed can tolerate it for a long period of time... hope everyone else can.

Finally, we had PIMCO say today (and by "PIMCO", I'm guessing that means El-Erian, and I like listening to him when he talks) that the US dollar free fall is just starting.

Click to expand...

When the FED heads or someone like Kudlow (was he sober when he was speaking?) who is tied to the NEC or whoever deems recessions are on or over, when they say we are in a recession then we are already out of it and vice versa. They are looking at data that is months old. Be that as it may, the stock market is clearly out of a recession and the technical definition of a recession will be broken when we have 20% "growth" in the 3rd quarter. This is what I know and have been thinking about all day, not really market related. Every airline has already announced their firing plans for October 1st, the first day they can legally do it per their gov't agreement. Coke, Salesforce (just announced going into the DOW Jones 30) MGM, and a slew of almost every other Large company are letting people go. These are not piker companies. Cap One cutting credit limits. Mortgage forbearances on the rise. El-Erian is on TV every day and he has been ultra cautious about both the market and economy. In fairness to El-Erian he is not a market guy. and I agree with them on the dollar. With Abe in Japan leaving and the US crushing its currency I actually bought the Yen last night and am holding it until it goes thru 100. The last thing Japan needs with its depressed economy is a strong Yen, but that is what it is going to get. Toyota, Honda et al can't be happy about these developments.

Lastly, after I am long gone, Econ. textbooks will have a whole chapter titled "Financial Repression". There probably won;t be a definition or they will say it is abstract but it will be perfectly explained by the Us. Gov't, Treasury and FED's actions of the past few years and going forward. Wish I would be around to see it

@Detroitgator
Yo Gotti.....sigh. Haven’t heard that name in a while. We came close to meeting once.

bradgator2 said:

People are always looking for new companies.... check out this one going public:
Nanox Announces Pricing of Upsized Initial Public Offering
Nano-X Imaging IPO: Key Takeaways On X-Ray Startup For Investors

Nanox.vision
There is really neat, short video on their front website that is worth watching.

A typical new basic CT scanner is roughly $500,000 and cutting edge ones are $1,000,000 per unit. This company is talking about building them for less than $50,000.

edit: went live at 11am. I jumped on almost instantly with some fun money at $21.45. It'll probably be worthless soon.

Click to expand...

up 50% in 10days.... scraping some off the pile

I... don't... like... what's going on... at all. So many mixed signals yesterday and today.

I feel like they are "willing" the Dow to break its all time high (everything else has already), but it's like a rocket trying to escape orbit and bits of the spaceship are starting to fly off.

Detroitgator said:

I... don't... like... what's going on... at all. So many mixed signals yesterday and today.

I feel like they are "willing" the Dow to break its all time high (everything else has already), but it's like a rocket trying to escape orbit and bits of the spaceship are starting to fly off.

Click to expand...

I have been thinking this for a while, LOL, but funny that you posted this today. So last night I was looking over some things and noticed some stocks that I like holding in one of my income accounts have come down a decent amount lately and it was surprising to me b/c rates on the long end have fallen fast. Be that as it may, I placed 8 orders this morning, in the Utilities Sector. I knew they were being tossed out as everyone rushed into the high flyers, but I thought this was a good time to add. Well as my luck would have it, which sector is up the most today, by more than double the next sector? Yep, Utilities, LOL. So I will have to wait until I want to get on another train.

BTW @Detroitgator you know that every few weeks they have one of these dash for trash days as I like to call it. Well this one lasted about 90 minutes as Tech stocks have already had a big bounce off the bottom. Also I am concerned about this 15 basis point move down in the 10 yr. Perhaps this is the low end of the bound that the FED seeks that you have mentioned but it was quite swift in the wake of a rising stock market. perhaps the VIX not coming down significantly is sending a signal?

FireFoley said:

I have been thinking this for a while, LOL, but funny that you posted this today. So last night I was looking over some things and noticed some stocks that I like holding in one of my income accounts have come down a decent amount lately and it was surprising to me b/c rates on the long end have fallen fast. Be that as it may, I placed 8 orders this morning, in the Utilities Sector. I knew they were being tossed out as everyone rushed into the high flyers, but I thought this was a good time to add. Well as my luck would have it, which sector is up the most today, by more than double the next sector? Yep, Utilities, LOL. So I will have to wait until I want to get on another train.

BTW @Detroitgator you know that every few weeks they have one of these dash for trash days as I like to call it. Well this one lasted about 90 minutes as Tech stocks have already had a big bounce off the bottom. Also I am concerned about this 15 basis point move down in the 10 yr. Perhaps this is the low end of the bound that the FED seeks that you have mentioned but it was quite swift in the wake of a rising stock market. perhaps the VIX not coming down significantly is sending a signal?

Click to expand...

I'm with you on all...

I'm not so VIX focused, but what is concerning is the dollar and 10yr action/directions in the last two days.

I've been saying all along that things would get "weird" around the SP500 3500 mark, and they are. I have tight stops from now until Friday, will have to decide what I want to do going into Friday close. I'm not adding to any existing nor buying anything new other than calls for purely day trading (like LULU yesterday).