- Oct 5, 2017
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The Gators take their second trip to Kyle Field on Saturday. As it stands, Florida will actually be playing in the highest temperature it has played in so far this season with a high in the mid to high 80's. The past two weeks have had temperatures in the mid-70's to low 80's. Why start of with that? Just to juxtapose against a normal season where we would have normally had several games in the 90's and seen the toll that weather can take on the team. Also, to look at just another angle of the game. In fact, it is the warmest game for both teams with the highest heat in the fourth quarter. Maybe this is worthless to talk about, but maybe, if it is a fourth quarter game, we will see who can go in the 4th quarter in the hottest part of the day. I'd go with the guys trained by Nick Savage.
Texas A&M through 2 games ahs not shown the next step that many thought they would take going into the year. However, part of that is due to losing 3 starters in the secondary due to opt outs. So far this season the Aggies are averaging just over 21 points a game. Their yardage per game is slightly skewed due to the garbage time they got late against Alabama during last week's loss. They do present the best challenge to UF yet in overall talent, however, they are neither the best offense, nor the best defense, that we have faced so far.
Offense
When this offense is firing on all cylinders the only team that stops them is themselves. Last week, Florida threw the ball all over a great secondary in South Carolina. Then in the second half, the offense tried to get cute, which was unnecessary and shut itself down. The running attack for the Gators also did what was asked for it outside of a few miscues. Damien Pierce continues to demand carries after averaging 5.7 ypc against the Cocks.
As of right now, the top five worst pass defenses in the SEC in yards per game are LSU, Florida, Ole Miss, Bama and aTm. The Aggies are #5 allowing 292.5 yards per game through the air. That is after one of the two teams they faced is Vandy. The obvious thing is to use the passing attack and make them stop us.
However, how many times in the last decade have we actually done that though? Too many time we see what the obvious game plan should be, realize its obvious, then do the exact opposite thinking it would be better to surprise our opponent by attacking their strength? For example, "the obvious thing to do is pass, so let's establish the run because it isn't what they think we will do." I wish I could say this is not my greatest fear for Saturday, but it is.
If we decide to let Trask take the team on his back and utilize his weapons, I think this offense can have a field day. If our play calling keeps the foot on the gas and doesn't get cute, we have a real chance of sweeping our regular season west opponents, something that was done in 2018, but is very rare over the last twenty years.
Defense
One thing I think gets lost in our frustration with the defense is that it has been good enough to give us three score leads in both games this season. Now, GatorCountry did have interesting articles about us giving up a ton of yards at the end of the game to help wind the clock. I think that's a bold and ultimately stupid strategy, but apparently the comments were made before the Carolina game by Grantham and seemed to be what he did last week as well.
If nothing else, we are building quality depth and a look to the future in a lot of positions. The problem is we need to get better now. There have been cryptic hints on and off as players mention getting other players back that we may see Stewart and Campbell return. I do think that would be a help. I also like the play so far from Cox and Dexter while Carter does the best with what he is asked to do. We are second in the SEC in sacks, just behind #PirateState and they've had the Arky and LSU offensive lines to deal with while we have had a so-so Carolina line, but a great scheme of Ole Miss with quick release coaching.
Again, our defense needs work, but there are aspects we can praise so I feel like bringing them up.
Yes, Mond threw for over 300 on Bama last week. That is the #4 statistically worst pass defense in the SEC after two games (we are #2, but at least we have the Ole Miss excuse pushing our numbers high). Also, he got a ton of yards after the game was out of hand. Meanwhile, we've allowed a ton of yards with big leads. This might be a match made in heaven for the guy.
Prediction
I'm not sure which defense shows up, the one that gave us 3 score leads or the ones that almost let those leads evaporate. I do know that if it comes down to a shootout, I believe in all of our weapons over the weapons of Texas A&M.
Florida 38 A&M 28
SEC Picks
Last week, I went 5-2 which is on par with my goal to be no worse than 50-20 straight up for the year. As I am awful with spreads, I ignore that. Auburn and #PirateState let me down last week. Ole Miss, you didn't disappoint.
This week
LSU over Mizzou- This game may be in Columbia, but no one cares. LSU isn't great, but they aren't losing to this Mizzou bad. Even if they are looking ahead to Gainesville.
Carolina over Vandy- Carolina will get to #5 in the East as Mizzou is that bad and Vandy is worse.
UGA over UT- So, you've beaten Mizzou twice and Carolina twice and I'm supposed to take your winning streak seriously? No.
Auburn over Arky- I don't think Franks can overcome Kevin Steele, but Auburn decided to let UGA play cornhole with them last week so you never know.
#PirateState over Kentucky- I've gone back and forth with this one. With Kylin Hill expected to play, I have to believe it makes the Bulldogs better. Corral threw for over 300 last week against the Wildcats. I believe the Air Raid may do more. Sure, Arky had a blue print, but I think Leach can get this done as Kentucky continues to disappoint.
Bama over Ole Miss- I thought and heavily considered pulling the trigger here. Bama, as discussed isn't exactly killing it in the pass department allowing 294 per game after playing A&M and Mizzou. Neither team is Lane Kiffin's Rebels. Corral and company are an offensive force, but the defense is not. I think this one may end up a shoot out with the better defense prevailing and that is Alabama.
Texas A&M through 2 games ahs not shown the next step that many thought they would take going into the year. However, part of that is due to losing 3 starters in the secondary due to opt outs. So far this season the Aggies are averaging just over 21 points a game. Their yardage per game is slightly skewed due to the garbage time they got late against Alabama during last week's loss. They do present the best challenge to UF yet in overall talent, however, they are neither the best offense, nor the best defense, that we have faced so far.
Offense
When this offense is firing on all cylinders the only team that stops them is themselves. Last week, Florida threw the ball all over a great secondary in South Carolina. Then in the second half, the offense tried to get cute, which was unnecessary and shut itself down. The running attack for the Gators also did what was asked for it outside of a few miscues. Damien Pierce continues to demand carries after averaging 5.7 ypc against the Cocks.
As of right now, the top five worst pass defenses in the SEC in yards per game are LSU, Florida, Ole Miss, Bama and aTm. The Aggies are #5 allowing 292.5 yards per game through the air. That is after one of the two teams they faced is Vandy. The obvious thing is to use the passing attack and make them stop us.
However, how many times in the last decade have we actually done that though? Too many time we see what the obvious game plan should be, realize its obvious, then do the exact opposite thinking it would be better to surprise our opponent by attacking their strength? For example, "the obvious thing to do is pass, so let's establish the run because it isn't what they think we will do." I wish I could say this is not my greatest fear for Saturday, but it is.
If we decide to let Trask take the team on his back and utilize his weapons, I think this offense can have a field day. If our play calling keeps the foot on the gas and doesn't get cute, we have a real chance of sweeping our regular season west opponents, something that was done in 2018, but is very rare over the last twenty years.
Defense
One thing I think gets lost in our frustration with the defense is that it has been good enough to give us three score leads in both games this season. Now, GatorCountry did have interesting articles about us giving up a ton of yards at the end of the game to help wind the clock. I think that's a bold and ultimately stupid strategy, but apparently the comments were made before the Carolina game by Grantham and seemed to be what he did last week as well.
If nothing else, we are building quality depth and a look to the future in a lot of positions. The problem is we need to get better now. There have been cryptic hints on and off as players mention getting other players back that we may see Stewart and Campbell return. I do think that would be a help. I also like the play so far from Cox and Dexter while Carter does the best with what he is asked to do. We are second in the SEC in sacks, just behind #PirateState and they've had the Arky and LSU offensive lines to deal with while we have had a so-so Carolina line, but a great scheme of Ole Miss with quick release coaching.
Again, our defense needs work, but there are aspects we can praise so I feel like bringing them up.
Yes, Mond threw for over 300 on Bama last week. That is the #4 statistically worst pass defense in the SEC after two games (we are #2, but at least we have the Ole Miss excuse pushing our numbers high). Also, he got a ton of yards after the game was out of hand. Meanwhile, we've allowed a ton of yards with big leads. This might be a match made in heaven for the guy.
Prediction
I'm not sure which defense shows up, the one that gave us 3 score leads or the ones that almost let those leads evaporate. I do know that if it comes down to a shootout, I believe in all of our weapons over the weapons of Texas A&M.
Florida 38 A&M 28
SEC Picks
Last week, I went 5-2 which is on par with my goal to be no worse than 50-20 straight up for the year. As I am awful with spreads, I ignore that. Auburn and #PirateState let me down last week. Ole Miss, you didn't disappoint.
This week
LSU over Mizzou- This game may be in Columbia, but no one cares. LSU isn't great, but they aren't losing to this Mizzou bad. Even if they are looking ahead to Gainesville.
Carolina over Vandy- Carolina will get to #5 in the East as Mizzou is that bad and Vandy is worse.
UGA over UT- So, you've beaten Mizzou twice and Carolina twice and I'm supposed to take your winning streak seriously? No.
Auburn over Arky- I don't think Franks can overcome Kevin Steele, but Auburn decided to let UGA play cornhole with them last week so you never know.
#PirateState over Kentucky- I've gone back and forth with this one. With Kylin Hill expected to play, I have to believe it makes the Bulldogs better. Corral threw for over 300 last week against the Wildcats. I believe the Air Raid may do more. Sure, Arky had a blue print, but I think Leach can get this done as Kentucky continues to disappoint.
Bama over Ole Miss- I thought and heavily considered pulling the trigger here. Bama, as discussed isn't exactly killing it in the pass department allowing 294 per game after playing A&M and Mizzou. Neither team is Lane Kiffin's Rebels. Corral and company are an offensive force, but the defense is not. I think this one may end up a shoot out with the better defense prevailing and that is Alabama.
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