Mortgage rates

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,013
14,787
@BMF, another thing that I am following closely are things underneath the largest players in the housing market. We all know the national home builders and the HD's and LOW's etc, etc. etc. But I noticed that TREX split 2 for 1 today. Okay no biggie but will be interested in watching it after the split. also watching RKT very closely. That is Rocket Mortgage and Dan Gilbert, who I believe is the largest mortgage provider now. Stock IPO'ed recently and shot up to 34. Now back to 23 ish. I am watching Whirlpool, Masco. etc for any sign that if the spending stops in those areas, that might work it's way up the ladder to the actual house price.
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
Lifetime Member
Sep 8, 2014
25,399
59,221
@BMF, another thing that I am following closely are things underneath the largest players in the housing market. We all know the national home builders and the HD's and LOW's etc, etc. etc. But I noticed that TREX split 2 for 1 today. Okay no biggie but will be interested in watching it after the split. also watching RKT very closely. That is Rocket Mortgage and Dan Gilbert, who I believe is the largest mortgage provider now. Stock IPO'ed recently and shot up to 34. Now back to 23 ish. I am watching Whirlpool, Masco. etc for any sign that if the spending stops in those areas, that might work it's way up the ladder to the actual house price.

Housing starts fell 5.1% in August.

Now, I'm not sure what to make of that. Why would they fall? Construction costs have really shot up lately, but there's still a major housing shortage.
 

LagoonGator68

Founding Member
mostly peaceful protester
Lifetime Member
Jun 12, 2014
7,115
6,162
Founding Member
Housing starts fell 5.1% in August.

Now, I'm not sure what to make of that. Why would they fall? Construction costs have really shot up lately, but there's still a major housing shortage.

Waiting to see if Trump is re-elected would be my guess...Dims are bad for business....
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,013
14,787
Housing starts fell 5.1% in August.

Now, I'm not sure what to make of that. Why would they fall? Construction costs have really shot up lately, but there's still a major housing shortage.

It was mostly in the multi family section. single family I think might have risen, which is what we need. but land acquisition is expensive and difficult due to zoning etc. Builders are not building on spec like they did 15 years ago b/c they got caught holding their sack. Also lumber prices have exploded, so I also watch lumber futures, forgot to mention that in my earlier post. We need entry level priced homes and when lumber, building, acquisition and zonings, etc. costs go up, the margin on those homes is very little relative to the luxury prices. If someone is looking at say 300K (which is the majority), then raising the price to say 315K takes many buyers out. But someone who is shopping at 900K and are told the price just went up to 950K, they just write a check.
 

LagoonGator68

Founding Member
mostly peaceful protester
Lifetime Member
Jun 12, 2014
7,115
6,162
Founding Member
It was mostly in the multi family section. single family I think might have risen, which is what we need. but land acquisition is expensive and difficult due to zoning etc. Builders are not building on spec like they did 15 years ago b/c they got caught holding their sack. Also lumber prices have exploded, so I also watch lumber futures, forgot to mention that in my earlier post. We need entry level priced homes and when lumber, building, acquisition and zonings, etc. costs go up, the margin on those homes is very little relative to the luxury prices. If someone is looking at say 300K (which is the majority), then raising the price to say 315K takes many buyers out. But someone who is shopping at 900K and are told the price just went up to 950K, they just write a check.

Costs are exploding with no end in sight due to all this virus crap money for free by the damn government. Jan. 1 2020 dollar will be lucky to be worth 50 cents at the end which will further drive costs of building homes up.
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,046
23,179
Good read here BUT the short term numbers are going to hit the ceiling again between Jan. and April due to incoming administration cluelessness of job creation....and the long term number just shows that some will never make it back...it increased to 2010 levels...Have those pistols un holstered fellas, there be some of them there foreclosures up ahead. Meanwhile their still lining up for those refi's like it's crack. Gonna finish this year ahead of the last 2 years which I thought was impossible....then start buying some of the same ones in about 6-8 month's....
Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Third Quarter of 2020 | Mortgage Bankers Association (mba.org)
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
Lifetime Member
Sep 8, 2014
25,399
59,221
Good read here BUT the short term numbers are going to hit the ceiling again between Jan. and April due to incoming administration cluelessness of job creation....and the long term number just shows that some will never make it back...it increased to 2010 levels...Have those pistols un holstered fellas, there be some of them there foreclosures up ahead. Meanwhile their still lining up for those refi's like it's crack. Gonna finish this year ahead of the last 2 years which I thought was impossible....then start buying some of the same ones in about 6-8 month's....
Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Third Quarter of 2020 | Mortgage Bankers Association (mba.org)

I expect the next stimulus to protect these deadbeats into mid-21.
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,046
23,179
I expect the next stimulus to protect these deadbeats into mid-21.
If they get one passed through the Senate yes and it will stall the inevitable for the newer 30-90 day delinquency's until late Summer or fall but for the current batch of past 90's there won't be any safety net...Have you looked at what happens once their forbeara0nce is up at the beginning of the year? Ouch...they ain't going to make it...

I also wouldn't expect any form of stimulus to have the same effect on the stock market this time either...my gut tells me it will implode sometime in Feb.-March...maybe sooner. Remember when Biden talked about that "long cold, dark winter"? Well it's coming but so are some long term investments in both RE and equities along with gold/BC....
 

LagoonGator68

Founding Member
mostly peaceful protester
Lifetime Member
Jun 12, 2014
7,115
6,162
Founding Member
If they get one passed through the Senate yes and it will stall the inevitable for the newer 30-90 day delinquency's until late Summer or fall but for the current batch of past 90's there won't be any safety net...Have you looked at what happens once their forbeara0nce is up at the beginning of the year? Ouch...they ain't going to make it...

I also wouldn't expect any form of stimulus to have the same effect on the stock market this time either...my gut tells me it will implode sometime in Feb.-March...maybe sooner. Remember when Biden talked about that "long cold, dark winter"? Well it's coming but so are some long term investments in both RE and equities along with gold/BC....

So, you’ve cashed out of RE and equities, right?
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,046
23,179
So, you’ve cashed out of RE and equities, right?
If I were your age I would have....;)
To much risk with what's about to happen to cash(currency)coming at the end of January...Millennials will make my RE 1.5X it's current value about the time it's paid off(5-7 years)….Stocks are on Defcon 5 watch with my finger glued to the eject button...
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,013
14,787
I expect the next stimulus to protect these deadbeats into mid-21.


Millions risk losing homes in 2020
Millions of Americans are worried about losing their homes by the end of 2020, according to a U.S. Census Bureau survey. As the pandemic upends personal finances, some 5.8 million people said they were "somewhat" to "very" likely to face eviction or foreclosure in the final months of the year — roughly a third of the 17.8 million adults in households are behind on rent or mortgage payments. A temporary moratorium on evictions ends Dec. 31, unless extended, while those who signed up for relief under the CARES Act could face foreclosure by March.
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
Lifetime Member
Sep 8, 2014
25,399
59,221
Millions risk losing homes in 2020
Millions of Americans are worried about losing their homes by the end of 2020, according to a U.S. Census Bureau survey. As the pandemic upends personal finances, some 5.8 million people said they were "somewhat" to "very" likely to face eviction or foreclosure in the final months of the year — roughly a third of the 17.8 million adults in households are behind on rent or mortgage payments. A temporary moratorium on evictions ends Dec. 31, unless extended, while those who signed up for relief under the CARES Act could face foreclosure by March.

Like I said in the earlier post, I expect these deadbeats to be saved by the next stimulus.

"OMG!! We can't let these people lose their homes!!" - AOC

"We need to cancel rent!" - Ilhan Omar
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,013
14,787
Like I said in the earlier post, I expect these deadbeats to be saved by the next stimulus.

"OMG!! We can't let these people lose their homes!!" - AOC

"We need to cancel rent!" - Ilhan Omar

I agreed with your original assertion 100%. That is why I posted those recent #'s. Mortgage free, rent free for however long and they will have to find a way to then help the landlords, then the bond holders, then the banks. A proverbial circle jerk that will never end.
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
Lifetime Member
Sep 8, 2014
25,399
59,221
I agreed with your original assertion 100%. That is why I posted those recent #'s. Mortgage free, rent free for however long and they will have to find a way to then help the landlords, then the bond holders, then the banks. A proverbial circle jerk that will never end.

I would just like to see it expedited! I'm moving in the next 6 months or so and we're looking at renting, because I ain't buyin' a house in Florida right now at the tippy top of the market! I'm certain I'm going to get top dollar for my Arlington house and I'll likely make 5-10% more than I expected on my cabin. Just going to sit on the money - although I am f'cking around quite a bit w/ my brokerage account (I pulled back too soon and it looks like this run will last a few more months, so I'm cautiously playing catch up).
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,013
14,787
I would just like to see it expedited! I'm moving in the next 6 months or so and we're looking at renting, because I ain't buyin' a house in Florida right now at the tippy top of the market! I'm certain I'm going to get top dollar for my Arlington house and I'll likely make 5-10% more than I expected on my cabin. Just going to sit on the money - although I am f'cking around quite a bit w/ my brokerage account (I pulled back too soon and it looks like this run will last a few more months, so I'm cautiously playing catch up).


Just came across this. Florida only.

Number of Fla. Homes Behind on Rent or a Mortgage? 51%
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,046
23,179
I ain't buyin' a house in Florida right now at the tippy top of the market!
I know you want to be in the Clearwater area but the west Orlando area will have bargains very soon...The Disney and attraction homos errrrr workers are going to be the first to get their poop pushed in.....the only bad part is you would own property near Urg and that alone will keep your property values well below market value....
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
Lifetime Member
Sep 8, 2014
25,399
59,221
I know you want to be in the Clearwater area but the west Orlando area will have bargains very soon...The Disney and attraction homos errrrr workers are going to be the first to get their poop pushed in.....the only bad part is you would own property near Urg and that alone will keep your property values well below market value....

We're looking in south Tampa and near downtown St. Petersburg for our primary home. We're looking anywhere within a 2 hour drive inland for a lakefront rental - I want acreage on a smaller lake, but wife wants a bigger/nicer lake so may have to settle on a more residential lot type of property. We're looking in the St. Pete Beach area (and north & south up along the coast) for a beach rental/airbnb property. I expect it all to come to a big head in the next 12-18 months....hopefully sooner. I'm already seeing price drops and homes sitting longer (in certain price ranges - the $250k-$400k range seems to move a lot easier/quicker).
 

FireFoley

Senior Member
Lifetime Member
Nov 19, 2014
9,013
14,787
We're looking in south Tampa and near downtown St. Petersburg for our primary home. We're looking anywhere within a 2 hour drive inland for a lakefront rental - I want acreage on a smaller lake, but wife wants a bigger/nicer lake so may have to settle on a more residential lot type of property. We're looking in the St. Pete Beach area (and north & south up along the coast) for a beach rental/airbnb property. I expect it all to come to a big head in the next 12-18 months....hopefully sooner. I'm already seeing price drops and homes sitting longer (in certain price ranges - the $250k-$400k range seems to move a lot easier/quicker).


A little bit of the same in SE Florida regarding price drops. I have also noticed some properties going under contract, only to show up again in the listings. Hearing that many of those deals are not meeting appraisal.
 

Concrete Helmet

Hook, Line, and Sinker
Lifetime Member
Jul 29, 2014
22,046
23,179
Rates still dropping.....according to CNBC refi demand just hit a new high this week....for the 14th time this year. Hearing of 30's in the 2's...
 

itsgr82bag8r

Founding Member
Tell your mom I said hi
Lifetime Member
Jun 11, 2014
22,328
28,415
Founding Member
Rates still dropping.....according to CNBC refi demand just hit a new high this week....for the 14th time this year. Hearing of 30's in the 2's...

Didn’t the delayed 0.5% covid rip-off fee kick in on 12/1 for all Freddie/Fannie backed refi loans?
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Help Users

You haven't joined any rooms.