Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

BMF

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Yes they do drop by the same percent as the dividend. That’s to prevent investors from being able to “buy” the dividend, which actually isn’t a dividend but rather a distribution.

Google it. You’ll see. Anyway, was just trying to protect you from something you wouldn’t want.

Is this just the long term capital gains or dividends, or both?
 

78

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Is this just the long term capital gains or dividends, or both?

Capital gains — long- and short-term. Again, this has zero to do with an actual dividend. It isn’t. This is the fund distributing the tax cost of having sold stock at a gain. SOMEBODY has to pay the tax.
 

bradgator2

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Anyone still holding Covid specific buys from March/April?

Things I bought in that timeframe, that I never would have bought normally. And am still holding:
cruislines:
RCL @ 47.85. +73%
NCLH @ 18.08 + 46%
CCL @ 11.90 + 97%

Airlines:
AAL @ 10.99 +49%
JBLU @ 8.95 +75%
LUV [email protected] +84%

Small bank:
CIT @ 19.18 +101%

I bought a crap ton of other things that I always wanted more off (BA, AXP, RTX, etc). But I wouldn’t put those in the “same category” of the above purchases.
 

BMF

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Anyone still holding Covid specific buys from March/April?

Things I bought in that timeframe, that I never would have bought normally. And am still holding:
cruislines:
RCL @ 47.85. +73%
NCLH @ 18.08 + 46%
CCL @ 11.90 + 97%

Airlines:
AAL @ 10.99 +49%
JBLU @ 8.95 +75%
LUV [email protected] +84%

Small bank:
CIT @ 19.18 +101%

I bought a crap ton of other things that I always wanted more off (BA, AXP, RTX, etc). But I wouldn’t put those in the “same category” of the above purchases.

Brad - I'm impatient and have sold a lot of what I bought in March and April. I made a nice return on CCL, AAL, UAL, and BA. I didn't get in early enough on AAL & CCL though, so it was a modest profit. I'm sitting on some risky stocks right now that I plan to dump soon and take the profit. I want to be 60-80% cash by March or April (but I want to see what direction the new admin goes...and the market response). It's unbelievable this current run up.

Is there any financial/money podcasts that you guys listen to?

I want to ask the group also about bitcoin and how you buy it. I've never bought any crypto-currency. I've recently bought some MARA stock, which is invested in crypto.
 

bradgator2

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It’s way easier to buy crypto now. You can buy it directly in a paypal account. My sofi accounts also lets me.

No podcasts. Just you knuckleheads and some other friends.
 

bradgator2

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Take a peek at CLCT.

WTF is up with that 6 month climb... triple??!! Authentication and grading of baseball cards??
 

FireFoley

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Take a peek at CLCT.

WTF is up with that 6 month climb... triple??!! Authentication and grading of baseball cards??


It is only a guess but have money will spend. No one is vacationing or flying or going to games, etc. etc. etc. So they buy overpriced houses, they become stock traders, they play fantasy games every minute, they buy art, over priced houses, ANYTHING. I have seen this game before. It happens in all asset classes. I have seen them all crash from bonds, stocks, Art, wine, real estate, TULIPS etc. etc. etc.
 

Concrete Helmet

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It is only a guess but have money will spend. No one is vacationing or flying or going to games, etc. etc. etc. So they buy overpriced houses, they become stock traders, they play fantasy games every minute, they buy art, over priced houses, ANYTHING. I have seen this game before. It happens in all asset classes. I have seen them all crash from bonds, stocks, Art, wine, real estate, TULIPS etc. etc. etc.
Ah yes the old "alternative investments"....:lol: It seems during times of uneasy equity market conditions people who have been stuck with these alternative items find a way to convince others of their soon to be miraculous increase in value due the downturn.... meanwhile the original holder of the "alternative item" is taking his boatload of cash straight to his brokerage account when things there hit bottom... Anyone remember Multi level marketing?:lol2:
 

BNAG8R

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Flash poll (don’t feel like starting a new thread).

Which happens first - Dow to 27000 (10% drop) or Dow to 33000 (10% increase)?
 

Concrete Helmet

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Which happens first - Dow to 27000 (10% drop) or Dow to 33000 (10% increase)?
The minute DJT steps out of office it won't touch 23k...for a loooooong time. In fact will probably go to about 16-17K(No confidence in Biden) and even stimulus won't raise it over 25k....Just saw where consumer spending is projected to hit lows we haven't seen in 25 years and there will be MASS layoffs(0 GDP) in late Jan-March....even the housing market will come down(although refi's will remain very strong)....gold will be at 2.6-3K though.
 

FireFoley

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The minute DJT steps out of office it won't touch 23k...for a loooooong time. In fact will probably go to about 16-17K(No confidence in Biden) and even stimulus won't raise it over 25k....Just saw where consumer spending is projected to hit lows we haven't seen in 25 years and there will be MASS layoffs(0 GDP) in late Jan-March....even the housing market will come down(although refi's will remain very strong)....gold will be at 2.6-3K though.

If the free market were allowed to function, then I would possibly agree with this. But you can bet your last dollar that long before the DJIA (which is an irrelevant marker anyway but for purposes of this discussion) sniffs say 25K, the FED and Treasury along with the morons in Congress would have thrown so much money at the problem, that the money will only have one place to go. It is the never ending circle jerk that I hope I am alive to see how it ends (if ever).
 

Concrete Helmet

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If the free market were allowed to function, then I would possibly agree with this. But you can bet your last dollar that long before the DJIA (which is an irrelevant marker anyway but for purposes of this discussion) sniffs say 25K, the FED and Treasury along with the morons in Congress would have thrown so much money at the problem, that the money will only have one place to go. It is the never ending circle jerk that I hope I am alive to see how it ends (if ever).
In order for them to keep in going with the kind of job losses we are going to see(again zero GDP) AND a monumental loss in consumer spending in the next 4-5 month's they will have to institute UBI by next Summer and I don't see that happening until possibly 2022/2023 at the earliest. I think we are going into uncharted waters with a Capt. Bligh at the helm....
 

BNAG8R

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In order for them to keep in going with the kind of job losses we are going to see(again zero GDP) AND a monumental loss in consumer spending in the next 4-5 month's they will have to institute UBI by next Summer and I don't see that happening until possibly 2022/2023 at the earliest. I think we are going into uncharted waters with a Capt. Bligh at the helm....

My gut says the same, but contrarian views are that there will be huge investments in infrastructure and a “re-tooling” for the new normal that will drive a transfer of jobs, significantly into the public sector, of course funded by tremendous government over-reach because “let’s just print more money - easy-peasy”. It’s a socialist utopian wet dream, but short term could certainly create more artificial boost.
 

78

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Dow 33000. Yes, that’s a rarified number, but a stimulus bill is coming and the Federal Reserve is prepping heavy ammo. All of that is likely to spawn the FOMO effect (Fear of Missing Out) on the value side of the ledger much as it has operated on the Nasdaq since the March low.

The markets ceased trading on fundamentals a long time ago. It’s all based on money prints and FOMO. This crisis has painted us into a dangerous corner that only further risk taking can get us out of.
 

Concrete Helmet

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My gut says the same, but contrarian views are that there will be huge investments in infrastructure and a “re-tooling” for the new normal that will drive a transfer of jobs, significantly into the public sector
I hate to keep coming back to politics but we heard the same from Obama in 2008, remember "shovel ready" and Solyndra? It's the same exact regime that brought mostly part time $8.50 an hour jobs to people who lost their 50-80K jobs and a whole bunch of red tape that stalled upstarts and Main Street small business....and moved more people off the participation chart than anyone in history...

Now factor in the MASS retirement of boomers which reaches an all time high between 2019 and 2025....They won't be spending half of what they were prior to retirement(remember they WERE spending between 2008-2016) and most silly milly's can't yet afford much....

It takes gas, air and spark for an engine to run. I see only a lot of gas in our future....
 
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BMF

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The minute DJT steps out of office it won't touch 23k...for a loooooong time. In fact will probably go to about 16-17K(No confidence in Biden) and even stimulus won't raise it over 25k....Just saw where consumer spending is projected to hit lows we haven't seen in 25 years and there will be MASS layoffs(0 GDP) in late Jan-March....even the housing market will come down(although refi's will remain very strong)....gold will be at 2.6-3K though.

I think your timeline is a little early. These things may happen, but it won't be Jan-March, as the stimulus is going to protect people for a while. Also, when this vaccine gets out to the general public (estimates are "in the spring") there is going to be a rush to spend money - on entertainment, travel, etc - since people have been hole'd up inside for a full year by then. This euphoria will last 2 to 4 months, then things will settle down....and that's when your timeline may/could kick in. Most "analysts" (for whatever stock we should put in them) are estimating 2021 to be a good year for the markets (for now, at least). We'll see. I'm trying to make some easy stock market money now while also being cautious.

The biggest thing I've got my eye on is the housing market - as I plan to sell two homes between Feb and May, and then move to Florida (with the current plan to rent until we find where we want to live and see if there's a housing correction).
 

Concrete Helmet

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I think your timeline is a little early. These things may happen, but it won't be Jan-March, as the stimulus is going to protect people for a while. Also, when this vaccine gets out to the general public (estimates are "in the spring") there is going to be a rush to spend money - on entertainment, travel, etc - since people have been hole'd up inside for a full year by then. This euphoria will last 2 to 4 months, then things will settle down
Good thought BMF. There could be some vaccine euphoria come spring and hold us in a similar pattern until then...I've seen a few say we may have a nearly vertical run between now and the next 6 month's in some areas but I think that's a little too optimistic....I'm staying in but have shifted to more value and I guess I'll just keep holding a lump to throw in if it takes a big drop....Either that or more RE if the banks start prying it out of the deadbeats hands...
Unlike you and some others on here I haven't had as much time for my funds to season in this lengthy Bull market....A reset of the SM could be just what I need with about 10 years until retirement.
 

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