Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

Detroitgator

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Rent is measured for inflation purposes by the government using SF and NY....go figure why their number is lower than what I call real inflation which to me is in the 8-9% range.

The treasury suckage from last week as you know and explained to me was because the last auction was the worst EVER... nobody wanted them.

Regarding the yield control which is coming was explained to me by someone on Friday which basically said that if interest rates rose to say 5-6% that nearly the entire world including the US would become insolvent due to the payments on worldwide debt not being able to work against the current amount of debt held by nearly every nation on the planet...good times were living in.....
4% would probably trigger it, and yield curve control has been happening since QE1, they just haven't officially admitted it yet. There are a lot of things they didn't say they were doing, then they say, "we have to do X now..." even though it's been ongoing.
 

Concrete Helmet

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"we have to do X now..." even though it's been ongoing.
tenor.gif
 

Concrete Helmet

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Given the 10yr yesterday and today, I'd say YCC is definitely in full effect.
Weird because it looks like the market ain't buying it today....either that or yesterdays buying was algos rebuying Friday's sell off? Weird times we live in where computers control both stocks and bonds with their buying and selling.
 

FireFoley

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Given the 10yr yesterday and today, I'd say YCC is definitely in full effect.

Definitely agree. And as you said they do things and continue to do things without saying they are doing it. Then down the road they can say they are starting to do YCC, all the while it has been going on for a long time.
 

Detroitgator

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Weird because it looks like the market ain't buying it today....either that or yesterdays buying was algos rebuying Friday's sell off? Weird times we live in where computers control both stocks and bonds with their buying and selling.
Algos affect stock markets, because as big as "the markets seem," they are tiny. The only computers that affect the bond markets (which beyond dwarf the stock markets) are the Feds... control the overnight rate outright, YCC by daylight.
 

78

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The notion of a rising 10-year yield driving flow from stocks to safety would be laughable if it weren’t so pathetically stupid.

The yield on the 10-year yield is 1.47%. It’s not uncommon to make that much on positions between market close and the next day’s open.
 

FireFoley

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The notion of a rising 10-year yield driving flow from stocks to safety would be laughable if it weren’t so pathetically stupid.

The yield on the 10-year yield is 1.47%. It’s not uncommon to make that much on positions between market close and the next day’s open.

I don;t think anyone was saying it was an intelligent move, but it is what was happening on those occasions. It was too obvious and that is how the algo's are written. It does not mean that the money went from high flying, high growth, no earnings tech stocks directly to treasury's but it definitely came out of those exact stocks for that exact reason. It was also prudent by some who chose to do it to pick off those treasury's especially the 5 year when rates rose 20+ basis points. That was quite a handsome return in less than an hour. So yes, it might be dumb, but it is how many play the market.
 

Concrete Helmet

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The notion of a rising 10-year yield driving flow from stocks to safety would be laughable if it weren’t so pathetically stupid.
Maybe not from stocks altogether but value and energy(3-4% dividend) have been making steady headway vs almost everything else which has been up and then down over the last 5 weeks or so...couldn't tell you how many times I've bought back in to growth, Russell, small and mid cap only to be stopped out a day or 2 later....people are nervous...or maybe computers have an itchy trigger finger?
 
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BMF

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I got brutalized again today! Ooooof! I'm giving back a lot of what I made the last 10 months.....
 

78

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I don;t think anyone was saying it was an intelligent move, but it is what was happening on those occasions. It was too obvious and that is how the algo's are written. It does not mean that the money went from high flying, high growth, no earnings tech stocks directly to treasury's but it definitely came out of those exact stocks for that exact reason. It was also prudent by some who chose to do it to pick off those treasury's especially the 5 year when rates rose 20+ basis points. That was quite a handsome return in less than an hour. So yes, it might be dumb, but it is how many play the market.

I’m apparently not the “many.” I think it’s another faux round of inflation fear mongering similar to what we saw from 2012-14. All that worrying about a bond market collapse never came to be. It simply spawned an array of bond substitutes, called alts, that were designed to mimic the work of fixed income while sidestepping the inflation risk.

The Nasdaq is selling off because it had gotten way ahead of itself. It’s a healthy consolidation. The best earnings remain in tech and consumer discretionary, not on the value side, which is benefitting primarily from a rotation from growth and the supposition of a Covid recovery. But so far it’s proved to be nothing terribly sustainable.

Some of the selling no doubt is connected to the 40-bip hike in the 10-year, but more of it is investors locking gains and looking, for now, at opportunities elsewhere.

I’ve been reading for months about a market bubble and imminent collapse, but take a look around. The bubbleized shares out there are scattered to and fro, not across the board. IMO this market has a long way to go before you see a lot of systematic selling, esp with all the stimulus coming. At some point it’s all gotta end. That’s what I fear, the Fed doing the dreaded unwind.
 

Concrete Helmet

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I've got a contrarian point of view and here are a few things to consider....
The SM is said to be several month's ahead of the economy and if that is true it is my belief that the stock market has already "priced" in the economy and stimulus. Look at the last stimulus of 900B....barely moved the needle back in January. The first stimmy was issued at a time when all you had to do was turn the lights on to get a response and it didn't quite bring us back to where we were going into last March in 90% of the market...it was only the Tesla's and some select tech that carried almost all of the gains.

That thought brings me to the next. Tech is at a place where people are not gaining from advancements anymore or atleast for the next 3-4 years...c'mon what else is a phone going to do that humans need??? And were not ready to jump on Reverend Elon's spaceship anytime soon. Everyone is already using Zoom, Square and all the other hip products out there at this point....in other words there is going to be a resting point while the supply chain for essentials catches up...

The EV craze is also slowing down because investors realize they are investing in things that won't be in production for another 3-5 years and that leads to uncertainty in inflationary times.

Here is the biggest factor and I can already here the denials...BUT...Most of the money(not all and I know there are the Left leaning elites but they are in the minority)is from people aged 50-70 who are conservatives...I'll bet 85% of Biden voters have zero dollars invested in ANYTHING....fact. Now looking at the age of these conservative investors one can see one thing in common....they all lived through the GFC. These people are not going to make the same mistake twice after losing half of their net worth not even 10 years ago and certainly not with their retirement either starting to happen or in the next 3-5-7 years. They also don't trust the government and hate Biden with a passion and for good reason, he's an idiot. Under Trump all they had to do was find something that said large cap and watch it grow 18-20%..that is gone and they are pissed. Trust me this is about 80% of people with investments to their name.

In fact recent studies have shown that their savings accounts are going up(pulling out and selling off) and overall credit card purchases are going down which makes sense since the silly milly's can't get cards or have miniscule credit limits on the ones they have....we actually have inflation and deflation at the same time. Find commodities that aren't being shorted, move to value/dividend as core holdings and wait for bonds to hit bottom then buy them and gold....to the moon baby...
 

BMF

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This is my primary observation, with tech, banking, energy, industrials, travel all up recently - and the other sectors down - anything we didn't get to do in 2020 is a winning trade now while the companies that sell the goods, services, and other things we were heavily using in 2020 are falling out of favor.

I'm not sure what's going to happen - I think 78 may be right, that we're still a few months off from any sort of collapse/crash. But I'm worried, because I've taken a beating even on some of my "safe" stocks (like APPL, WMT, LOW, CVS). I have about 25% in cash, but that other 75% is down close to 15%.
 

alcoholica

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Concerning a collapse, we may or may not be that far off. Given what corn has done and comparing it to prior performances vs. the S&P, it is consistent with a pending correction. Not an end all be all, but it it and other similar commodities continue to rise, I think the likelihood goes up. Likely, attributed to oil prices, and it’s bearing out in the markets
 

Concrete Helmet

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It's over....anyone still trying to trade this slop is gonna lose triple anything they earn for many month's to come. The people and the computers have lost any hope for the idiot at the helm and his delusional sidekick Jerome...
 

Concrete Helmet

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In 6 weeks the senile moron in charge and his never never land sidekicks have managed a trifecta often thought impossible by market insiders and macro economic experts worldwide....
Broke the 20 year S&P price channel
Created inflation and deflation....simultaneously
Made 5000 year old hedges against the above conditions irrelevant....



RUN AWAY!!! - YouTube
 
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bradgator2

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I decided to invest in some oil when that "oil situation" happened roughly 6 months ago and oil dropped to negative for a few hours. I bought XOM (5.93% div), SUN (10.8% div), SU (4.7% div), and FANG (2.3% div)... and because I think BMF mentioned it... KRP (12.2% div). I figured worst case these would be nice dividend producers.

Since then... XOM is up 63%, SUN is up 24%, SU is up 29%, FANG is up 99%, KRP is up 24%.

These last few weeks have been painful. But those have softened the blow.
 

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