Mortgage rates

Concrete Helmet

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So... about that lumber shortage....
Yeah we laughed at the concrete shortage back in 2003-2005 when the Chinese bought it all and masses of Treasuries....they are no longer buying our treasuries....What's the old saying? There's your sign....
 

Detroitgator

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Yeah we laughed at the concrete shortage back in 2003-2005 when the Chinese bought it all and masses of Treasuries....they are no longer buying our treasuries....What's the old saying? There's your sign....
I laughed, because concrete skyrocketed in 2004 right after I built my pool!!
 

BMF

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You have it wrong. @BMF doesn't want to build the garage, he wants to LIVE in the garage. :lol:

I lived in a 'Carriage' apartment (above a garage) in Norfolk for two years. It was in a great neighborhood (East Beach) about 100 yards from the Chesapeake Bay.

So, Brad, if you could build this thing w/ a second floor apartment, I'd appreciate it!
 

alcoholica

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Yes the way the FED and gov't morons look at it, but no if you look at how the everyday person lives their life. House prices, which are not counted, are soaring. Every package goods, food and other everyday company has said they will be forced to raise prices (and said they hope consumers do not notice). When the eviction moratoriums end (if ever).mortgage forbearances end (if ever) and the Stimulate Money ends (if ever) I assure you that those inflated savings balances at banks will disappear very quickly. People spend every penny they have (and then more). I am not predicting runaway inflation, but this type of inflation will be much worse on an everyday basis. It is one thing for people to have to fight off high prices for once in a life, once every 10 years purchase. Fighting off inflation on items you purchase every day with no more Stimulate Me money is a different thing.
Here's another slant. How long are people really expecting rates to stay this low? People always forget about turnover and volume. So how long does this sustain. Simple math gets in the way of any rate correction without severe impact. So how long does the volume and turnover last? To put it into perspective, the housing crisis peaked at 1.823 million (1/2006) SFR home starts, our current peak is 1.322 million (12/20) thru 3/21. So why is this hitting us so hard?

COVID on a supply front, and the prior crash from another. So COVID is what it is and it's not just China effing with us but COVID restrictions locally (....and unemployment bennies). Also, this is the first time in a long time that those who bought in 2005 - 2008 could really have an opportunity to move and upgrade, because they could reasonably payoff their mortgage and have downpayment money. Plus COVID moratoriums. You get it and a lot of other people get it intuitively, which is why people are waiting for the crash. There is not a chart out there that rationally explains how this run will keep going. Some people just go to Tijuana, get invited to a donkey show, and no matter how many people warn them, they still think they are going to see Eeyore or some Shrek movie.
 

NVGator

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I honestly think you all are forgetting about the fact that:

1. Real Estate is a life cycle event.

2 The amount of Millennials buying are 3x that of Baby Boomers.

Our population is growing exponentially, more so than the stupid fuchsing COVID rating.

Hello.
 

soflagator

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Here's another slant. How long are people really expecting rates to stay this low? People always forget about turnover and volume. So how long does this sustain. Simple math gets in the way of any rate correction without severe impact. So how long does the volume and turnover last? To put it into perspective, the housing crisis peaked at 1.823 million (1/2006) SFR home starts, our current peak is 1.322 million (12/20) thru 3/21. So why is this hitting us so hard?

COVID on a supply front, and the prior crash from another. So COVID is what it is and it's not just China effing with us but COVID restrictions locally (....and unemployment bennies). Also, this is the first time in a long time that those who bought in 2005 - 2008 could really have an opportunity to move and upgrade, because they could reasonably payoff their mortgage and have downpayment money. Plus COVID moratoriums. You get it and a lot of other people get it intuitively, which is why people are waiting for the crash. There is not a chart out there that rationally explains how this run will keep going. Some people just go to Tijuana, get invited to a donkey show, and no matter how many people warn them, they still think they are going to see Eeyore or some Shrek movie.

You mentioned a definite wild card in unemployment situation. One variable I’ve talked about and that we don’t know at this point is how many of those people willfully sitting on their couch instead of working will have a job (or a comparable job) when they do decide to be honorable again. Between AI, streamlined operations, record profits, etc. for big corporations, and the looming tax question and damage already done over the past year for smaller business, the landscape has changed dramatically, especially in that 25-40k bracket. As their former/current employees voluntarily watched them struggle while playing video games, how likely are these businesses to welcome them back with open arms, and at what rate?

I know of several business owners in WP that have reached an adversarial point with former employees who’ve voluntarily refused to come back. When those benefits end, it may be an entirely self inflicted rude awakening. Whether they are renting, in a mortgage or prospective buyers, that will have a significant impact, though again, I think in specific areas.
 

BMF

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Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

Last week the price per thousand board feet of lumber soared to an all-time high of $1,188, according to Random Lengths. Since the onset of the pandemic, lumber has shot up a whopping 232%.

BB1g5LJJ.img


Home builders and DIYers don't want to hear this, but the ceiling could be higher—maybe even a lot higher. On Monday, the May futures contract price per thousand board feet of two-by-fours jumped $48 to $1,420. That squeeze once again triggered the circuit breakers and caused lumber trading to halt for the day. Why would lumber yards and builders pay above market rates? Severe lumber scarcity has buyers on edge. They're buying the sky-high contracts in order to ensure they'll actually get the lumber they need for projects already under contract.

"The market is in trouble. It could spiral out of control in the next few months," Dustin Jalbert, senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, told Fortune. The issue? Supply, which is already backlogged, simply can't catch up as demand continues to grow with the start of the home building and home renovation seasons.


BB1g63De.img


This supply and demand mismatch is largely a result of the pandemic. At the same time that state-mandated lockdowns caused mills to halt production, bored quarantining Americans were rushing to [hotlink]Home Depot[/hotlink] and Lowe’s to buy up materials for do-it-yourself projects. That caused lumber inventory to plummet. It only got worse from there: Recession-induced record-low interest rates caused a housing boom. In March, new housing starts hit their highest levels since 2006. Of course, new homes require a lot of lumber, thus exacerbating the shortage.

On the supply side, lumber production is finally rebounding: Wood production hit a 13-year high. But that can only do so much. Limited mill capacity combined with labor shortages, mean supply can catch up to robust demand.

Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune on Monday that soaring lumber futures contracts, including for months as far away as November, signal that lumber prices will be elevated for quite some time.

For prices to correct, Jalbert says, demand will need to cool down—something that is unlikely to occur until the home building and renovation seasons are over. Simply put, exuberant lumber prices aren't going anywhere in the next few months.
 

alcoholica

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You mentioned a definite wild card in unemployment situation. One variable I’ve talked about and that we don’t know at this point is how many of those people willfully sitting on their couch instead of working will have a job (or a comparable job) when they do decide to be honorable again. Between AI, streamlined operations, record profits, etc. for big corporations, and the looming tax question and damage already done over the past year for smaller business, the landscape has changed dramatically, especially in that 25-40k bracket. As their former/current employees voluntarily watched them struggle while playing video games, how likely are these businesses to welcome them back with open arms, and at what rate?

I know of several business owners in WP that have reached an adversarial point with former employees who’ve voluntarily refused to come back. When those benefits end, it may be an entirely self inflicted rude awakening. Whether they are renting, in a mortgage or prospective buyers, that will have a significant impact, though again, I think in specific areas.
Not to mention illegal workers
 

alcoholica

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Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

Last week the price per thousand board feet of lumber soared to an all-time high of $1,188, according to Random Lengths. Since the onset of the pandemic, lumber has shot up a whopping 232%.

BB1g5LJJ.img


Home builders and DIYers don't want to hear this, but the ceiling could be higher—maybe even a lot higher. On Monday, the May futures contract price per thousand board feet of two-by-fours jumped $48 to $1,420. That squeeze once again triggered the circuit breakers and caused lumber trading to halt for the day. Why would lumber yards and builders pay above market rates? Severe lumber scarcity has buyers on edge. They're buying the sky-high contracts in order to ensure they'll actually get the lumber they need for projects already under contract.

"The market is in trouble. It could spiral out of control in the next few months," Dustin Jalbert, senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, told Fortune. The issue? Supply, which is already backlogged, simply can't catch up as demand continues to grow with the start of the home building and home renovation seasons.


BB1g63De.img


This supply and demand mismatch is largely a result of the pandemic. At the same time that state-mandated lockdowns caused mills to halt production, bored quarantining Americans were rushing to [hotlink]Home Depot[/hotlink] and Lowe’s to buy up materials for do-it-yourself projects. That caused lumber inventory to plummet. It only got worse from there: Recession-induced record-low interest rates caused a housing boom. In March, new housing starts hit their highest levels since 2006. Of course, new homes require a lot of lumber, thus exacerbating the shortage.

On the supply side, lumber production is finally rebounding: Wood production hit a 13-year high. But that can only do so much. Limited mill capacity combined with labor shortages, mean supply can catch up to robust demand.

Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune on Monday that soaring lumber futures contracts, including for months as far away as November, signal that lumber prices will be elevated for quite some time.

For prices to correct, Jalbert says, demand will need to cool down—something that is unlikely to occur until the home building and renovation seasons are over. Simply put, exuberant lumber prices aren't going anywhere in the next few months.
No where near the level on homestarts, yet costs way out of proportion to 2006.

back then the CCP was gobbling up concrete, but they have zero impact on Southern Pine.
 

TLB

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They're buying the sky-high contracts in order to ensure they'll actually get the lumber they need for projects already under contract.

This is my experience. I'm trying to quote redoing my deck, price came back 95% material with a warning that the company is booked out to August and lumber prices will be higher by then. I may be waiting until next year at this pace, but your post has me worried about that as well.
 

Concrete Helmet

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I honestly think you all are forgetting about the fact that:

1. Real Estate is a life cycle event.

2 The amount of Millennials buying are 3x that of Baby Boomers.

Our population is growing exponentially, more so than the stupid fuchsing COVID rating.

Hello.
Our population and workforce are actually diminishing along with a higher percentage of people being moved off the participation rate. Milly's aren't reproducing quickly either(a lot of them are homos). Throw in automation and technology and the amount of jobs will also be diminishing(Think Japan)
Now the Milly's will restart our economy and housing markets for sure once there is a HUGE adjustment that is right around the corner...In about 2024 their effect on housing will be huge but until we get that correction they won't be able to afford housing(55% still live at home) and it will take the rest of the boomers retiring in the next 3-5 years to open up some of the diminishing job market.
 

soflagator

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Our population and workforce are actually diminishing along with a higher percentage of people being moved off the participation rate. Milly's aren't reproducing quickly either(a lot of them are homos). Throw in automation and technology and the amount of jobs will also be diminishing(Think Japan)
Now the Milly's will restart our economy and housing markets for sure once there is a HUGE adjustment that is right around the corner...In about 2024 their effect on housing will be huge but until we get that correction they won't be able to afford housing(55% still live at home) and it will take the rest of the boomers retiring in the next 3-5 years to open up some of the diminishing job market.

Another valid point. With the increasing number of homosexuals, and subsequent diminished amount of offspring production, will those of us with 4BR homes be left holding the bag? My proximity to the park and school may as well be a DVD player.

I knew I should’ve just built a small apartment on top of a detached garage.
 

CDGator

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Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

Lumber prices are up 232% and ‘could spiral out of control in the next few months’

Last week the price per thousand board feet of lumber soared to an all-time high of $1,188, according to Random Lengths. Since the onset of the pandemic, lumber has shot up a whopping 232%.

BB1g5LJJ.img


Home builders and DIYers don't want to hear this, but the ceiling could be higher—maybe even a lot higher. On Monday, the May futures contract price per thousand board feet of two-by-fours jumped $48 to $1,420. That squeeze once again triggered the circuit breakers and caused lumber trading to halt for the day. Why would lumber yards and builders pay above market rates? Severe lumber scarcity has buyers on edge. They're buying the sky-high contracts in order to ensure they'll actually get the lumber they need for projects already under contract.

"The market is in trouble. It could spiral out of control in the next few months," Dustin Jalbert, senior economist at Fastmarkets RISI, told Fortune. The issue? Supply, which is already backlogged, simply can't catch up as demand continues to grow with the start of the home building and home renovation seasons.


BB1g63De.img


This supply and demand mismatch is largely a result of the pandemic. At the same time that state-mandated lockdowns caused mills to halt production, bored quarantining Americans were rushing to [hotlink]Home Depot[/hotlink] and Lowe’s to buy up materials for do-it-yourself projects. That caused lumber inventory to plummet. It only got worse from there: Recession-induced record-low interest rates caused a housing boom. In March, new housing starts hit their highest levels since 2006. Of course, new homes require a lot of lumber, thus exacerbating the shortage.

On the supply side, lumber production is finally rebounding: Wood production hit a 13-year high. But that can only do so much. Limited mill capacity combined with labor shortages, mean supply can catch up to robust demand.

Stinson Dean, CEO of Deacon Lumber, told Fortune on Monday that soaring lumber futures contracts, including for months as far away as November, signal that lumber prices will be elevated for quite some time.

For prices to correct, Jalbert says, demand will need to cool down—something that is unlikely to occur until the home building and renovation seasons are over. Simply put, exuberant lumber prices aren't going anywhere in the next few months.

We better start praying there aren't any big hurricanes this summer. Talk about the perfect storm!
 

BMF

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We better start praying there aren't any big hurricanes this summer. Talk about the perfect storm!

Well, if you listened to the dems we're going to have 10x our normal number of hurricanes and they're all going to be twice as strong as the usual hurricane, and they'll all make landfall, and we're all going to die....because....climate change. So, there goes the lumber prices!
 
Last edited:

CDGator

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Well, if you listed to the dems we're going to have 10x our normal number of hurricanes and they're all going to be twice as strong as the usual hurricane, and they'll all make landfall, and we're all going to die....because....climate change. So, there goes the lumber prices!


:triggered:
 

no1g8r

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Well, if you listed to the dems we're going to have 10x our normal number of hurricanes and they're all going to be twice as strong as the usual hurricane, and they'll all make landfall, and we're all going to die....because....climate change. So, there goes the lumber prices!

You had me worried until you said, “we’re all going to die”. Then I realized that would drive down demand so lumber prices should be okay. Whew!
 

bradgator2

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I should have taken a pic of the pallets of lumber beside (outside) the Lowes I was at yesterday. Stacked 20 feet high and ran the depth of the entire store.

Shortage my ass
 

no1g8r

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I should have taken a pic of the pallets of lumber beside (outside) the Lowes I was at yesterday. Stacked 20 feet high and ran the depth of the entire store.

Shortage my ass

You must live in a privileged area
 

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