Truth Takes: 2021 Season Preview

GatorTruth133 · Aug 30, 2021

Durty South Swamp said:
Picking a win against bama but loss against mizzo? Interesting take.

I know, but we all know we hit lose to some team we shouldn't every year. I think if we had Bama later in the year, we would lose. It is a circumstantial pick.

CaribGator said:
I like it,, you have me believing !! I'll also take some of your stash :)

The first 2 games will be very vanilla, Mullen holding back for bama, after that game, if we win,, the sky's the limit for the team and they will believe,, as long as Mullen doesn't go in to a shell and cost us a game by taking his foot off the pedal, which we know he likes to do. Lose the bama game badly, and the wheels could fall of fast

100% it could fall off fast. But we will see. Also, if Emory stalls drives it could usher in a Richardson era.

TN G8tr said:
Like your take on season. Feel 10-2, 9-3 is more likely. Anything can happen. Would not be a bit surprised if the offense is just a good points wise, maybe not statistically, but able to put numbers on the board. Well, the Defense....they have no where to go but up.

I believe we can get that up on the defense. I'm not saying it will be elite, but even average could make us dangerous. Like I said I am going positive on my spectrum that I could see a 5 loss season potentially happening.

Gator By Marriage said:
Nice write up @GatorTruth133 and I appreciate the time you put into this.
Reality will probably hit me in n the face soon enough, but prior to the first game, I try to hope for the best.

Thank you. And the optimism is like that scene in The Dark Knight Rises where Bruce and Alfred discuss the day Batman finds his limits. Bruce says that on that day Alfred can say I told you so, but Alfred replies that on that day, I won't want to.

soflagator said:
If he goes 8-4, he's on borrowed time.

Depends on the "how". Many pundits have already hedged 8-4 is ok bets.

Swamp Donkey said:
Top 10 in what?

Definitely top 10 in rushes.

Will lead the team in rushing yards.

G8trwood said:
At least we have a strong run D and good gap control

I believe this year we should, especially with the portal guy we just picked up today.

Thanks for all the comments guys. Sorry for the delay in responding, after posting late I had to get up early for court this morning.

FireFoley · Aug 30, 2021

Completion % is a misleading stat. When the passing game was forward Completion %'s were much lower than the present. The passing game is sideways with many short throws. As an example Tebow had almost 70% completion % and that was one reason people thought he would be a successful NFL QB. But many of those throws were slip screens and shovel passes. And at times the placement of the ball was not great. The % is the % and of course high is good, but is not a good comparison to 20+ years ago

ThreatMatrix · Aug 30, 2021

NavetG8r said:
That's surprising to me because when I was younger and watching him I could swear he had a knack for dropping the ball right where it needed to be almost all the time. Guess all those years fogged my memory. We'll see if Mullen has EJ throwing the ball all over the place I guess, but I just don't see it. I hope he proves me wrong. Way wrong. Doubt it though.

He could drop it in a basket like no one. But I'm always surprised when I rewatch those game how many incompletions he threw. But the ole ball coach would just have him sling it again.

GatorTruth133 · Aug 30, 2021

FireFoley said:
Completion % is a misleading stat. When the passing game was forward Completion %'s were much lower than the present. The passing game is sideways with many short throws. As an example Tebow had almost 70% completion % and that was one reason people thought he would be a successful NFL QB. But many of those throws were slip screens and shovel passes. And at times the placement of the ball was not great. The % is the % and of course high is good, but is not a good comparison to 20+ years ago

Very true. As a thought, if a dude is passing at over 10 yards per completion and moving the ball, 55% would not be as bad. Especially if some of those throws are high reward throws like airing it out and trying for the 50 yard play. As opposed to like you said a 70ish% where most plays end with like 3-5 yards. There is a decent middle ground though.

Uncle Rob · Aug 30, 2021

I think that we have great talent this year. If Todd can get the plays in on time, and the defense set, we can be great. I know that that is a big IF.

SGG · Aug 30, 2021

Losses to Bama, LSU, Mizzou and Toothless/SC/KY, one of those three. 8-4, with wins over Ugay and F$U

Swamp Donkey · Aug 30, 2021

NavetG8r said:
That's surprising to me because when I was younger and watching him I could swear he had a knack for dropping the ball right where it needed to be almost all the time. .

He didnt throw 80% of his passes 3 yards or less.

Swamp Donkey · Aug 30, 2021

ThreatMatrix said:
He could drop it in a basket like no one. But I'm always surprised when I rewatch those game how many incompletions he threw. But the ole ball coach would just have him sling it again.

He mostly threw 11-13 yards deep. You could afford to miss a few.

GatorTruth133 · Aug 30, 2021

Swamp Donkey said:
He mostly threw 11-13 yards deep. You could afford to miss a few.

This is what I was getting at with the reply above. If you get a first down roughly every completion, incompletions mean less. They can still be a problem, but not as big. Now 60% with a ton of sideways (unless those spring some big plays) is definitely stat padding.

Homer J · Aug 30, 2021

Emory has a great long ball and that is going to open up the run game.

I think CDM will run him less but he will get his yards by scrambling.

Emory will average 250 yards passing and 65 yards running a game.

Swamp Donkey · Aug 30, 2021

I gave your wife a great long ball.

Sec14Gator · Aug 31, 2021

Swamp Donkey said:
I am at least hopeful that Reese will look a little more like the Reese from a few years ago. Really not sure what happened to him.

In the run game and now that we're back to 85% running or screen pass (hat low fake run blocking) he wont look quite as stupid.

I charted plays (and posted the results) for the OL for a few games early last year before just not having the time anymore. But, Reese (at least early when I was watching close enough) was lost on run plays as often as pass, if not more. He frequently pulled or looked to seal (usually back side) and simply stood around touching no one, which is pretty damn hard as an interior offensive lineman.

Homer J said:
Emory has a great long ball and that is going to open up the run game.

On what basis do you make this point? What long ball am I forgetting? His best/most consistent ball that I have seen is the slot seam/sluggo/skinny post that is about 15 yards down field, in the middle of the field and typically thrown on a line. I can't recall a single ball he put air under and let drop in (guys with big arms often struggle in this area). So, I decided to go looking.

Stats to back me up: His sole long pass per ESPN in 2020 was 30 yards. That's it.

2019 his long pass was 48 yards to Toney. Shocker, it was Toney in the slot running a seam route go. Toney was wide open, ball travelled 30 yards and caused Toney to stop to catch it, resulting in it not being a TD. His other long was 37 yards to Copeland. This is a much better throw, on an outside WR go route placed over his outside shoulder. Best "deep" throw I could find. Travelled 30 yards in the air and well placed.

2018, only one pass against Idaho could apply for the entire season. He had a 35 yard completion to Grimes. It was again an inside pass to the slot. Pass travelled 10 yards on the skinny post route. Doesn't really apply.

So, 1 pass over 3 years was a well thrown deep ball. But, he has a "great long ball". Maybe he's does, but he and Dan haven't bothered to show us over 3 years time.

Homer J said:
I think CDM will run him less

Then I read this and knew that the prior analysis was pointless. Run him less than who? Ron Dayne?

Durty South Swamp · Aug 31, 2021

Homer J said:
Emory has a great long ball

So does Franks. Who gives a ####?

TheDouglas78 · Aug 31, 2021

ThreatMatrix said:
Wuerffel had a 57.5% completion percentage in '96. Won the Heisman as I recall.

That's also when 57.5% meant a lot more.... with the rules skewed towards offense 62% is the low bar for average. Now you can't hit a quarterback, touch a wide receiver, and the offenses are spread like never before. Wuerfell in todays college football would be a 70% passer.

Swamp Donkey · Aug 31, 2021

Sec14Gator said:
On what basis do you make this point? What long ball am I forgetting? His best/most consistent ball that I have seen is the slot seam/sluggo/skinny post that is about 15 yards down field, in the middle of the field and typically thrown on a line.

15 yards is a veritable Hail Mary in this offense.

Apparently there was a rule at Notre Dame that throwing behind the Linebackers is cheating.

GatorTruth133 · Aug 31, 2021

Sec14Gator said:
2018, only one pass against Idaho could apply for the entire season. He had a 35 yard completion to Grimes. It was again an inside pass to the slot. Pass travelled 10 yards on the skinny post route. Doesn't really apply.

So, 1 pass over 3 years was a well thrown deep ball. But, he has a "great long ball". Maybe he's does, but he and Dan haven't bothered to show us over 3 years time.

He has thrown several other great deep passes. Not his fault if Copeland has dropped them (he has) or if UGA takes a PTI so we don’t get the ball inside the 5 in 2018. There have also been several practice videos showing great throws deep.

Going simply by completions is a bit of a misnomer. I’m not saying it isn’t important, but am I going to say a great throw isn’t a great throw because of a drop or a PTI? No.

ChiefGator · Aug 31, 2021

I believe we have plenty of talent on offense except maybe the line. On defense I really don't know and special teams is another question.

Perhaps this first game will show something.

Swamp Donkey · Aug 31, 2021

GatorTruth133 said:
He has thrown several other great deep passes. Not his fault if Copeland has dropped them (he has) or if UGA takes a PTI so we don’t get the ball inside the 5 in 2018. There have also been several practice videos showing great throws deep.

Going simply by completions is a bit of a misnomer. I’m not saying it isn’t important, but am I going to say a great throw isn’t a great throw because of a drop or a PTI? No.

I actually agree with this. there's no problem with EJ's arm strength. obviously is running abilities are not in doubt, his accuracy is what I'm not sure of yet.

NavetG8r · Aug 31, 2021

ChiefGator said:
I believe we have plenty of talent on offense except maybe the line. On defense I really don't know and special teams is another question.

Perhaps this first game will show something.

Offense will be good, but most likely not up to last year's standards. Defense will be better. We play the #1, #2 and #5 team composits this year meaning we most likely end up with 2-3 losses. Mullen typically beats the teams with less talent, but only beats teams with more talent once in a while (UGA last year).

oxrageous · Aug 31, 2021

GatorTruth133 said:
Sorry for the delay in responding, after posting late I had to get up early for court this morning.

What did you plead?

Truth Takes: 2021 Season Preview

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