2022 investing thread

Concrete Helmet

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Anyone else thinking of ditching(except for the good stuff I already mentioned)?
Sorry 78 but Brandon ain't gonna deliver blue skies and bunny rabbits anytime soon....most experts know that the supply chain issues are now up to a minimum of 2 years to solve.....consumer liquidity just took a dump as we are now up to the highest levels of consumer debt......EVER ....all those savings are spent.

Thank god value, metals and oil are holding the line for me ....everything else is leaving skid marks on the down.
 

bradgator2

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Anyone else thinking of ditching(except for the good stuff I already mentioned)?
Sorry 78 but Brandon ain't gonna deliver blue skies and bunny rabbits anytime soon....most experts know that the supply chain issues are now up to a minimum of 2 years to solve.....consumer liquidity just took a dump as we are now up to the highest levels of consumer debt......EVER ....all those savings are spent.

Thank god value, metals and oil are holding the line for me ....everything else is leaving skid marks on the down.

On a side note after hours, SOFI officially approved on national bank charter.
 

Concrete Helmet

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What happened today? Looked like we were recovering around noon and stuff went green....looked when I got home and it dropped like a rock again?
10 year has been steadily rising and the dollar has been steady and even slightly declining??
Silver, gold and uranium made me some nice gains but I lost everywhere else....Getting a little twitchy
 

78

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What’s happening is the data is all over the place. Inflation is running at a 40-year high and yet the latest reports consistently point to a deceleration in growth. That puts the Fed in a tight box with very little real ammo unless you actually think 5-6% interest rates are on the horizon. No one in his right mind can absent a collapse in the economy.

To the contrary, some are even looking for more dovish commentary when the Fed convenes in a few days.

We can probably expect a 2-3% target with hopes that the economy soft lands. The market will do as it tends to do, overshoot in its attempt to price in all the contradicting data that is a function of a back and forth pandemic. And the sky will remain upward.
 

FireFoley

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What’s happening is the data is all over the place. Inflation is running at a 40-year high and yet the latest reports consistently point to a deceleration in growth. That puts the Fed in a tight box with very little real ammo unless you actually think 5-6% interest rates are on the horizon. No one in his right mind can absent a collapse in the economy.

To the contrary, some are even looking for more dovish commentary when the Fed convenes in a few days.

We can probably expect a 2-3% target with hopes that the economy soft lands. The market will do as it tends to do, overshoot in its attempt to price in all the contradicting data that is a function of a back and forth pandemic. And the sky will remain upward.

The FED has plenty of ammo, they just choose not to use it. Due to a lot of fiscal mismangment along with monetary policy mismanagment for numerous years, the FED has become the stock market's little BYTCH, so any thing they consider , they must take the stock market into account. That Balance Sheet BS they have been playing with, along with meaningless purchases of Treasurys and especially MBS, was one of the largest mistakes I have ever seen in my long life of watching the FED and economics. No need to be the purchaser of first resort when there are plenty of other buyers out there. Seems like the FED forgot that beyond their dual mandate, they are only to be the Lender of Last Resort, such as come in like when the overnight funding market freezes and rates shoot up a lot. Other than that, they need to stay the eff out. I can't wait until they try and say they are going to make a conscientuous effort to shrink the balance sheet. Remember the last time they tried that. It lasted about 3 minutes!
 

bradgator2

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Well this is surprising....................................................NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/pel...-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html

BTW, below is a picture of the Peloton of the 1970's. This one was easy, I was just 18 months early.

39229

Thank God I never bought any of that. Although I love the actual product.... I never understood the business or why it deserved that incredible valuation.
 

FireFoley

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Thank God I never bought any of that. Although I love the actual product.... I never understood the business or why it deserved that incredible valuation.

Good on you. I kept trying to short it when the borrowing costs were not too high and I could get a borrow. I usually ended up either losing or getting called on my shorts. Occasionally I would make a little, but not there for the great fall. Kind of like the guys who got taken out in a body bag being short GameStop. They were correct in the end, but as we all know Markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
 

FireFoley

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So I guess today's market prior to the last hour was what is known affectionately as a.....

images
 

bradgator2

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All major indexes were up 2% this morning. All basically finished 2% down. Unreal.
 

Bernardo de la Paz

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Seems like the FED forgot that beyond their dual mandate, they are only to be the Lender of Last Resort
Pretty tall order to maintain employment when the executive branch uses its emergency powers to eliminate 8 million jobs.

I think people don't realize though that when the Fed buys assets they are essentially printing money and dumping it into the economy.
 

Concrete Helmet

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contradicting data
Oh you mean like a 3.9% unemployment rate with over 10 million unfilled jobs and a rise in unemployment claims from the last couple of weeks.....What you're seeing is a complete lack of trust in leadership from the majority of Americans and people with a lick of common sense.
:trainwreck:
 

78

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That was two forces, one of them overwhelming, colliding. Today was the second biggest options expiration day of the year. The bounce? Uniformed investors walking unwittingly into a trap.
 

Bernardo de la Paz

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In the context of the historical PE ratio, there is plenty of room for the sell off to continue. The money has to go somewhere though. It's the low interest rates and lack of alternatives that keeps equities expensive.

Screenshot_20220124-083140_DuckDuckGo.jpg
 

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