Phil Steele: Returning Starters 2017

BMF

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Steele shows us w/ 14 returning starters. However, in that it includes LDR as a returning QB. It shows we have 9 on offense and only 5 on defense. The last 3+ games we saw several players make starts that are not considering a "returning starter". Also, I'm not sure if CeCe is considered a 'returning starter' either (since he was not ahead of Sherit or Cox).

However, we probably return 8-9 defensive players who have made 2+ career starts (to go along w/ significant playing time). So, for what it's worth, I'd consider we have around 15 returning "starters" (minus LDR - if he is not the starting QB, and add CeCe and at least Gardner and/or Reese/Joseph at LB).

**Notice which team is dead last.


https://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2017/FEB17/DBFeb25.html

Complete Breakdown of every CFB Team's Returning Starters.

The deadline for players to declare for the NFL draft is over, so it's time to analyze returning starters for the 2017 college football season.

There will be some changes in the spring with a player or two transferring, but the list below gives you a very good idea of which teams will have the most veteran units in 2017 and which teams have the most to replace.

Something crucial to remember: You shouldn't discount the importance of returning starters, even if this past year's CFP title game featured two teams, Clemson (12 ret) & Alabama (11 ret) that had among the fewest returning starters in the country. The Tigers and Crimson Tide were exceptions to the rule and, for the most part, experienced starters did have a positive impact on teams.

For instance, last year there were 19 teams that returned 16 starters or more, including their QB. Of those 19 teams, 12 had a better record in 2016 than they did in 2015. Four had the same record, and only 3 of the 19 had a weaker record.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, there were 14 teams that returned 11 or fewer starters that did not have a returning starter at QB. Of those 14 teams, 0 had a better record. Of the 14 least experienced teams, 13 had a weaker record in 2016 than they did in 2015 and one had the same.

With all that in mind, the numbers listed below provide a good window into what to expect in 2017. I broke them down first by overall ranking Syracuse, Florida Atlantic and Texas are looking good and Michigan is not, and then by conference.

Note: A 1 in the QB Column denotes that teams starting QB is back.


RK TEAM CONF TOTAL OFF QB DEF
1 Syracuse ACC 20 9 1 11
2 Florida Atlantic CUSA 18 9 1 9
3 Texas BIG 12 17 7 1 10
3 Oregon PAC-12 17 8 1 9
3 NC State ACC 17 9 1 8
3 Georgia SEC 17 7 1 10
3 Kentucky SEC 17 8 1 9
3 TCU BIG 12 17 10 1 7
9 Penn St BIG 10 16 9 1 7
9 Northwestern BIG 10 16 8 1 8
9 Oklahoma BIG 12 16 9 1 7
9 Washington St PAC-12 16 7 1 9
9 Stanford PAC-12 16 8 1 8
9 Georgia Tech ACC 16 8 0 8
9 Florida St ACC 16 7 1 9
9 Vanderbilt SEC 16 9 1 7
9 South Carolina SEC 16 10 1 6
9 Fresno St MW 16 10 1 6
9 Rice CUSA 16 8 0 8
9 Tulane AAC 16 8 1 8
9 Army INDEP 16 9 1 7
9 Miami, Oh MAC 16 8 1 8
9 ULM SUN BELT 16 7 1 9
9 USF AAC 16 7 1 9
25 Ohio St BIG 10 15 8 1 7
25 Iowa BIG 10 15 7 0 8
25 Indiana BIG 10 15 6 1 9
25 Wisconsin BIG 10 15 8 1 7
25 Notre Dame INDEP 15 8 0 7
25 Missouri SEC 15 10 1 5
25 Miami, Fl ACC 15 7 0 8
25 Boston College ACC 15 8 0 7
25 UCLA PAC-12 15 9 1 6
25 Arizona St PAC-12 15 7 1 8
25 Oregon St PAC-12 15 7 1 8
25 Wake Forest ACC 15 9 1 6
25 Auburn SEC 15 8 1 7
25 San Jose St MW 15 7 0 8
25 Colorado St MW 15 6 1 9
25 Memphis AAC 15 9 1 6
25 Houston AAC 15 8 0 7
25 Marshall CUSA 15 8 1 7
25 Buffalo MAC 15 6 1 9
25 Akron MAC 15 9 1 6
25 New Mexico St SUN BELT 15 6 0 9
25 Troy SUN BELT 15 8 1 7
25 FIU CUSA 15 7 1 8
48 Minnesota BIG 10 14 8 0 6
48 Kansas St BIG 12 14 8 1 6
48 Texas Tech BIG 12 14 8 0 6
48 Baylor BIG 12 14 7 0 7
48 Arizona PAC-12 14 7 1 7
48 California PAC-12 14 6 0 8
48 Maryland BIG 10 14 7 0 7
48 Virginia ACC 14 6 1 8
48 Duke ACC 14 7 1 7
48 Florida SEC 14 9 1 5
48 Tennessee SEC 14 7 0 7
48 Hawaii MW 14 8 1 6
48 SMU AAC 14 9 1 5
48 Wyoming MW 14 6 1 8
48 Central Michigan MAC 14 8 0 6
48 Eastern Michigan MAC 14 8 1 6
48 Nevada MW 14 5 1 9
48 Connecticut AAC 14 7 1 7
48 Massachusetts INDEP 14 6 1 8
48 Texas St SUN BELT 14 7 0 7
48 UTSA CUSA 14 7 1 7
48 Old Dominion CUSA 14 8 0 6
48 Georgia St SUN BELT 14 8 1 6
71 Purdue BIG 10 13 5 1 8
71 Rutgers BIG 10 13 5 1 8
71 Washington PAC-12 13 7 1 6
71 Arkansas SEC 13 7 1 6
71 Mississippi St SEC 13 7 1 6
71 Tulsa AAC 13 7 0 6
71 UNLV MW 13 9 1 4
71 Bowling Green MAC 13 6 1 7
71 Kent St MAC 13 7 1 6
71 Ohio MAC 13 7 1 6
71 Western Michigan MAC 13 5 0 8
71 Navy AAC 13 5 0 8
71 UCF AAC 13 9 1 4
71 UL Lafayette SUN BELT 13 6 0 7
71 Appalachian St SUN BELT 13 7 1 6
86 Colorado PAC-12 12 9 0 3
86 Oklahoma St BIG 12 12 7 1 5
86 Iowa St BIG 12 12 6 1 6
86 Kansas BIG 12 12 8 1 4
86 Texas A&M SEC 12 5 0 7
86 Virginia Tech ACC 12 5 0 7
86 USC PAC-12 12 5 1 7
86 North Carolina ACC 12 5 0 7
86 Clemson ACC 12 5 0 7
86 BYU INDEP 12 6 1 6
86 Southern Miss CUSA 12 6 0 6
86 Louisville ACC 12 5 1 7
86 Ball St MAC 12 8 1 4
86 Toledo MAC 12 5 1 7
86 Northern Illinois MAC 12 5 0 7
86 Middle Tennessee CUSA 12 6 1 6
86 Charlotte CUSA 12 6 1 6
103 Illinois BIG 10 11 5 0 6
103 Alabama SEC 11 6 1 5
103 LSU SEC 11 6 1 5
103 Ole Miss SEC 11 5 0 6
103 UTEP CUSA 11 5 1 6
103 San Diego St MW 11 5 1 6
103 Utah PAC-12 11 5 1 6
103 East Carolina AAC 11 5 0 6
103 North Texas CUSA 11 6 1 5
103 Louisiana Tech CUSA 11 5 0 6
103 Coastal Carolina SUN BELT 11 5 1 6
114 Nebraska BIG 10 10 4 0 6
114 Pittsburgh ACC 10 6 0 4
114 Temple AAC 10 6 0 4
114 New Mexico MW 10 7 1 3
114 Cincinnati AAC 10 5 1 5
114 Idaho SUN BELT 10 5 1 5
114 Arkansas St SUN BELT 10 5 1 5
114 WKU CUSA 10 4 1 6
114 South Alabama SUN BELT 10 4 1 6
114 Georgia Southern SUN BELT 10 5 0 5
124 Michigan St BIG 10 9 4 0 5
124 Utah St MW 9 5 1 4
124 Boise St MW 9 5 1 4
127 West Virginia BIG 12 8 5 0 3
128 Air Force MW 7 6 1 1
129 Michigan BIG 10 5 4 1 1
 

CGgater

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Our O Line has enough experience playing together that IF we can get solid (doesn't have to be stellar) QB play, we can look better than last year by scoring more points and letting our younger D rest up.

That's a big IF, though.
 

Swamp Donkey

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This is a stupid metric. Syracuse and Kintucky near the top. They mention that both Clemson and Bammer scored low last year.

It doesnt matter if your starters are returning if your starters suck.
 

Swamp Donkey

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Our O Line has enough experience playing together that IF we can get solid (doesn't have to be stellar) QB play, we can look better than last year by scoring more points and letting our younger D rest up.

That's a big IF, though.
I think our 2s on the OL will be better than our 1s from 2015, probably across the board. RBs, QBs, everything will look much better with a competent line.
 

Gatorraid81

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And despite this, I thought someone had posted an early line on the game a little while back that had Michigan like a 7 point favorite. Evidently vegas don't put too much stock into all our returning starters.
 

BMF

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This is a stupid metric. Syracuse and Kintucky near the top. They mention that both Clemson and Bammer scored low last year.

It doesnt matter if your starters are returning if your starters suck.

I tend to agree, but there's more to it than "they suck". If you look at Steele's historical data, it shows that teams returning more starters tend to win more games. That's a fact. He's not saying they're going to be conference champs or national champs, just that they are LIKELY to win more games. Look at our 2007 team: did those defensive players "suck"? No, they were just young. Look at the 2008 team: did those returning starters (who stunk it up in 2007) get better? I think they did. Sure, they were 4 & 5 star players....but the trend is that a team returning more starters will LIKELY win more games the following year. It's a very relevant stat. Now, is there a difference in returning 13 vs. 15 starters? Who knows? But I think having 14+ starters PLUS your starting QB back is HUGE in college football.
 

CGgater

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I think our 2s on the OL will be better than our 1s from 2015, probably across the board. RBs, QBs, everything will look much better with a competent line.

Our OL has had time to develop, so I agree with griff that OL has no excuses. QB should be better, but until we see it against a quality opponent, I'll resist the urge to pump any sunshine about the offense.
 

T REX

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Steele shows us w/ 14 returning starters. However, in that it includes LDR as a returning QB. It shows we have 9 on offense and only 5 on defense. The last 3+ games we saw several players make starts that are not considering a "returning starter". Also, I'm not sure if CeCe is considered a 'returning starter' either (since he was not ahead of Sherit or Cox).

However, we probably return 8-9 defensive players who have made 2+ career starts (to go along w/ significant playing time). So, for what it's worth, I'd consider we have around 15 returning "starters" (minus LDR - if he is not the starting QB, and add CeCe and at least Gardner and/or Reese/Joseph at LB).

**Notice which team is dead last.

It would be interesting to see how many of UM's back ups got significant PT because they blew so many teams out. So they have a ton of kids with game experience. They aren't breaking in brand new kids at each of those positions.
 

Swamp Donkey

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I tend to agree, but there's more to it than "they suck". If you look at Steele's historical data, it shows that teams returning more starters tend to win more games.
I might agree if the talent is relatively equal. I would also agree that a Kintucky team with alot of starters may be a 6 or 7 win team instead of a 4-5 win team.

Talent still wins games and comparing returning starters is of zero significance between a 3 star team like Kintucky and a team full of bluechippers like Bammer even if the bluechippers are green.
 
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deuce

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I might agree if the talent is relatively equal. I would also agree that a Kintucky team with alot of starters may be a 6 or 7 win team instead of a 4-5 win team.

Talent still wins games and comparing returning starters is of zero significance between a 3 star team like Kintucky and a team full of bluechippers like Bammer even if the bluechippers are green.

How do you explain Appalachian State beating Michigan several years ago and Ga. Southern beating us?
 

Swamp Donkey

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How do you explain Appalachian State beating Michigan several years ago and Ga. Southern beating us?
It had nothing to do with number of returning starters and everythimg to do with terrible coaches.
 

deuce

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It had nothing to do with number of returning starters and everythimg to do with terrible coaches.

Then add "terrible coaches" to your equation. I think you put way too much emphasis on star value without giving credence to coaching acumen. I like the old adage about Bear Bryant I think, "He'll beat you with his players then swap players with you and beat you with your players".
 

Swamp Donkey

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. I like the old adage about Bear Bryant I think, "He'll beat you with his players then swap players with you and beat you with your players".
Except he didnt. Bear Bryant didnt win shyt at Kintucky.

The thread is about returning starters. In any event, the fact that you can find two big upsets in the last year proves that the rule is the rule. However, I know logic isnt your thing.
 

deuce

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Except he didnt. Bear Bryant didnt win shyt at Kintucky.

The thread is about returning starters. In any event, the fact that you can find two big upsets in the last year proves that the rule is the rule. However, I know logic isnt your thing.

Sorry but the only rule in college football about "Talent wins out" is that there is no such rule. If you think "logic" works in picking winners, show me your record of picking winners.... Better still, show me a Vegas Bookie that uses Logic in his picks. It's all about preparation meeting opportunity.
 

Swamp Donkey

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Sorry but the only rule in college football about "Talent wins out" is that there is no such rule. If you think "logic" works in picking winners, show me your record of picking winners.... Better still, show me a Vegas Bookie that uses Logic in his picks.
Lol. Lines are exactly how Vegas keeps people from just picking more talented team.

Look, I realize you relish rooting for the Bad News Bears and hoping to just see the underdogs eke out one win over a ranked team per year. We get it. Here's your medal for being more a fan than the rest of us.
 

T REX

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Sorry but the only rule in college football about "Talent wins out" is that there is no such rule. If you think "logic" works in picking winners, show me your record of picking winners.... Better still, show me a Vegas Bookie that uses Logic in his picks. It's all about preparation meeting opportunity.

There's a statistical study done...I've posted it here. Feel free to search for it but it flat out shows a direct relationship between more talented teams having a higher winning % vs less talented teams.

You're wrong
 

TN G8tr

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We've got a lot of work to get done to beat Meatchicken but it doesn't hurt with them at 129 out of 129, the bottom with returning starters. Mac better take advantage.
 

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