Corndogs Prediction Thread

Zambo

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Doesn't matter if you agree or don't agree. Numbers don't lie and they tell the story. Or do you believe the 1-11 record is because the second team in these 2 game underdog gauntlets happens to be better than the first team 92% of the time?
Put on your thinking cap for just one second. You're talking about the odds of pulling back to back upsets against ranked teams. It has nothing to do with the players' ability to "get up" for the game, it has to do with the odds of pulling back to back upsets. If your chances of winning either game are one out of three, then the chances of winning both games are one out of nine, without regard to any outside influence such as emotion. They are called "upsets" for a reason. But no,, I guess you're right, the only reason the record is 1-11 is because they always have a let down.
 

Gatorraid81

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Put on your thinking cap for just one second. You're talking about the odds of pulling back to back upsets against ranked teams. It has nothing to do with the players' ability to "get up" for the game, it has to do with the odds of pulling back to back upsets. If your chances of winning either game are one out of three, then the chances of winning both games are one out of nine, without regard to any outside influence such as emotion. They are called "upsets" for a reason. But no,, I guess you're right, the only reason the record is 1-11 is because they always have a let down.


I wonder what were the odds in 2003 that we would go on the road and deafest LSU, Arky and Ugay consecutively? They were all top ten if I remember correctly or close to it. Anyways, that had to be like at least 1 out of a 100 for that to happen.
 

gator1946

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Put on your thinking cap for just one second. You're talking about the odds of pulling back to back upsets against ranked teams. It has nothing to do with the players' ability to "get up" for the game, it has to do with the odds of pulling back to back upsets. If your chances of winning either game are one out of three, then the chances of winning both games are one out of nine, without regard to any outside influence such as emotion. They are called "upsets" for a reason. But no,, I guess you're right, the only reason the record is 1-11 is because they always have a let down.

Zambo, perhaps I read this wrong. But If I read it correctly, you have just failed basic conditional probability. Now that we've won the first game, the odds are, in your example, one out of three that we win the second.

I hope I'm wrong..... Oh **** maybe Ox won't read this. Hell he won't kick me out. I'm good for 6 posts a week toward the ultimate goal.
 

oxrageous

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Zambo, perhaps I read this wrong. But If I read it correctly, you have just failed basic conditional probability. Now that we've won the first game, the odds are, in your example, one out of three that we win the second.

I hope I'm wrong..... Oh **** maybe Ox won't read this. Hell he won't kick me out. I'm good for 6 posts a week toward the ultimate goal.
You've been on the site for 1,900 days and have less than 1,800 posts. I normally forget you are a member here.
 

oxrageous

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Oh it would take far too long to go into detail. You just need to be thankful that there are posters like me and some others that give this place life.
Name the posters that do not give the place life.

Bashing Trask and picking UF to lose every week is "life"?
 

Buckman2000

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Goes along with the idea that it's really hard to get super fired up two games in a row. Just like us fans, players are human not robots. Even though the coaches preach going about your business, doing your job, one game at a time, etc, the players invested heavily physically and emotionally in the Auburn game. I know, for whatever reason, I was a lot more fired up for that game than this one, even though this is a great matchup. I'm definitely excited for it, but for some reason not the same anticipation and excitement as the last one, and I get the same sense from the rest of the forum too.

I guess the best thing about teams being in the same situation going 1-11 is you're saying there's a chance. (insert GIF)
I would agree with this 100% except one small issue. LSU has been doing a lot of talking this week. The talking should have the player’s collective attention. If they weren’t fired up before they are now
 

Zambo

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Zambo, perhaps I read this wrong. But If I read it correctly, you have just failed basic conditional probability. Now that we've won the first game, the odds are, in your example, one out of three that we win the second.

I hope I'm wrong..... Oh **** maybe Ox won't read this. Hell he won't kick me out. I'm good for 6 posts a week toward the ultimate goal.
Nah I oversimplified the problem but you're right, if you flip a coin its always a 50/50 chance no matter how many times in a row the coin has come up either heads or tails on previous flips. My statement is correct about a 3-1 underdog winning twice in a row but it doesn't really tell the story addressed in that tweet about teams being 1-11.

The first phrase is key: Since 2010. Nine years. That's how often a team that is a dog at home in one week goes on the road to play a ranked team the next week. With all the games played every week over 9 years, its a very rare occurrence. In order to understand if emotion plays any real role in the statistical probability of a win, you'd have to know what those odds are in scenarios without said emotion. What are the normal odds of an underdog winning a road game against a ranked team regardless of what happened the week before? Without knowing that you don't have a control to judge the hypothesis. I wouldn't be at all surprised to lean that the odds of any underdog team winning against a ranked team on the road is worse than 10%. Probably something on the order of 1 out of 11 :lol: In the end, I think the "control" group in this tweet has some random qualifiers that make it akin to the old "Florida hasn't played a non-conference road game out of the state" mumbo jumbo that folks like to bandy about.

How many of those 11 teams were mid pack teams like Arkansas that eeked out an upset against say Ol Miss at home and then went on the road to Bama and got their ass kicked? I doubt such a scenario is really analogous to the Gators playing LSU this week. Upsets are upsets for a reason...they are rare rather than being the norm.
 

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